I'll say this much: instead of seeing the David Tyree catch 1,000 times, we probably only had to see it about 997 thanks to Irsay and his massive ego. So thanks for that, I guess.
On to the actual game. Where Peyton Manning actually does have a lot at stake, to be fair. His arch-rival and his younger brother can take their statuses to new levels with wins tonight. Tom Brady can further bolster his case that when all is said and done, he will indeed be the Greatest Quarterback of All-Time. Four rings, two Super Bowl MVP's, two regular-season MVP's, 16-0 season? Not many other people with that kind of resume. Eli, on the other hand? Remember, there's a list of quarterbacks with two rings not in the Hall of Fame, and it starts and ends with Jim Plunkett. Eli's career TD-INT ratio? 185-129 currently. Plunkett's final tally? 164-198. Eli is bound for Canton with a second ring, and it doesn't necessarily have to be tonight's game either.
And of course there's the whole "Revenge Bowl" factor, which I'm not buying into at all, because if the Patriots do indeed win tonight, they'll be 16-3 on the season. I'm not exactly Ben Whitney with math here, but I can tell you that's not 19-0. The only thing that matters tonight is, well, tonight. One team will win, one team will lose. That much we know. But who's more likely to be that winner or loser? Time to break it down in the way only Jake Levin can.
Quarterbacks
Eli Manning did indeed prove this season that you can't spell "Elite" without "Eli", much like you can't spell "Flaccid" without "Flacco". He's not the liability he was in Super Bowl XLII anymore, when he jobbed Justin Tuck from winning game MVP honors. 4,933 passing yards this season may have only been the fourth-highest total in the league, but they were the sixth-most all time. People are actually talking openly that he may be having a better career than Peyton. Which is foolish, but hey. Let it go to his head.
Because having said all that, he's still Eli Manning. Not Tom Brady.
Advantage: Patriots
Running Backs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs return from the XLII squad, each coming off tremendously disappointing seasons, however. For the Patriots, gone is Laurence Maroney, in is BJGE, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley. Relative no-names in the New England backfield, for sure. Ridley may have fallen out of favor with Belichick thanks to some fumbles, and BJGE wasn't nearly as effective this season as he was in 2010, when he rushed for 1,008 yards. The awe-factor with Danny Woodhead has come and gone as well. In 2010 he totaled over 900 yards from scrimmage (receiving and rushing yards). This season the number was barely over 500.
Of course, the Giants tandem played a hand in the Giants being dead-last in the NFL at rushing this season. I don't think either side has an advantage here, but I don't think it will matter either. Running games will be a non-factor.
Advantage: Even
Pass Catchers
If you've been listening to my show's at all this week (12-1:30 on Wednesday and Friday on http://wriu.org/studiob/), you know I've been lumping the WR's and TE's together into one category, because the Giants clearly have a deeper stable of wide receivers, while the Patriots boast the best tight end tandem in the league. Add them all together? You've got four of the NFL's top twelve receivers from this season (Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Hakeem Nicks). You've got a guy who led the NFL in receptions (Welker, 122). You've got a guy who set the NFL record for TD catches be a TE (Gronkowski, 17. Plus 1 rushing). You've got a guy, who while not technically a rookie, had the most impressive first season as a wide receiver since Randy Moss--and actually gained more yards and caught more passes than Moss in his legendary 1998 rookie campaign (Cruz). You've got a guy with size 4XL hands (Nicks). Beyond the four headliners, there's Aaron Hernandez and Mario Manningham, another tight battle. So what's the X-Factor? The Giants don't have a former Super Bowl MVP as their no. 4 target. Deion Branch will matter tonight. You mark my words.
And maybe, just MAYBE, there will be a Chad Ochocinco sighting tonight. Maybe.
Advantage: Patriots
Defensive Line
Vince Wilfork can dominate a game like no other nose tackle in the league. Of course, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul can dominate a game like few other defensive ends can. I'm pretty sure we've seen this exact story from the Giants before, simply substituting Michael Strahan for JPP. The Pats defensive line is good; the Giants D-Line is great, and no doubt the best in the NFL.
Advantage: Giants
Linebackers/Secondary
I lumped these two together to save us time and cover up some mediocrity. For as much maligned as the Patriots secondary was this season (and rightfully so, being the 31st ranked pass defense), you realize the Giants were only a few slots ahead, at 29th, right? Since there's no other place I could throw this in, scoring defense is something that surprised me. The Patriots were middle of the pack, 15th, allowing 21.4 per. The Giants were 25th, at an even 25.0 per. More than any other playoff team, mind you. Even Denver. Bottom line is that neither of these units will be able to do much to slow down either passing attack.
Advantage: Even
Special Teams
Give me Stephen Gostkowski over Lawrence Tynes any day of the week and twice on Sundays. And today's Sunday. No feared kick/punt returners on either side, although I suppose either Edleman or Will Blackmon are capable of making a play. Zoltan Mesko can kick the ball a mile, and I honestly don't know who the Giants punter is, just that it's not Matt Dodge. And that's enough for me to know he's probably alright. So since everything is relatively even other than the placekickers it's a small
Advantage: Patriots
Coaching
Bill Belichick....Tom Coughlin. Bill Belichick....Tom Coughlin. Bill Belichick...? Tom Coughlin...?
Frankie Jawidzik says "to admire what Coughlin did with the Jaguars". Sure he did fine work with the expansion team. Including not taking them to any Super Bowls. This is a guy who's used up 8 of his 9 coaching lives yet for some reason, is still held in high regard. It's not quite Norv Turner-esque that he still has a job, but it's damn puzzling at times. I'm well aware Coughlin out-coached Belichick in XLII. Lightning doesn't strike twice people.
Advantage: Patriots
By my count, that's 4 advantages for the Patriots, 1 for the Giants, and 2 washes. I'll throw this number your way: there have been 45 Super Bowls. In said 45 Super Bowls, all 45 winners finished the season with a positive point differential. Seems pretty obvious, right? These Giants finished the season at -6. No team has ever won the Super Bowl with a negative point differential. Ever.
At 9-7, the Giants would be the first team in the history of the 16-game schedule to win the Super Bowl with fewer than 10 wins.
The Giants are an extremely trendy pick heading into this game. I love it. There's no question the Patriots play better when they're disrespected. No question at all. So give me Patriots 21, Giants 14, with Rob Gronkowski as Super Bowl MVP. Two TD's for Gronk and a rushing TD from BJGE will be enough for the Pats.
Enough with the hype. Let's play the damn game already.
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