NFL Week 4 Picks

I'm almost happy I forgot to post my picks last week. Actually, I'm straight up thrilled I forgot to. Why? I undid all the good I had accomplished through the first two weeks. You know, getting off to a pretty solid 19-12-1 start calling games. Very, very solid as a matter of fact. But last week?

5-11.

Bringing me back to square one. 24-23-1, and now the Ravens handed me another loss by not coming even close to covering against the Browns. So I'm at .500.

But you know what? Maybe I shouldn't count last week. Or any of the first three weeks for that matter. We all know there's a little asterisk next to many of these games due to the replacement officials. According to John Buccigross's twitter, the ref who worked the biggest travesty of them all (the Green Bay/Seattle game, which was the equivalent of the Nagasaki bombing in that there was just no way the Japanese could continue on the charade of having a chance, much like the owners and Roger Goodell couldn't carry on the charade of "these guys are doing a good job"), was working a high school game in Texas on Friday night. Well, then.


By the way, I gave myself a win for that Packers/Seahawks game. If the correct call had been made, Green Bay would have won 12-7 and covered the -3 spread. Sue me. On to the picks.

Last Week: 5-11*
Season: 24-24-1*
This Week: 0-1
Locks of the Week: 1-2

Home team in CAPS

Patriots (-4) over BILLS

I keep getting flashbacks to my 12-year-old self, which is what I was the last time the Patriots were below. 500. The last time they were two games below .500? We'd have to go back to 2001, and my 10-year-old self. I'm not feeling it either. Sometimes you just have to go with what makes the most sense.

LIONS (-4) over Vikings

I'd say the law of averages is in play for this one too. Minnesota looked a little too good last week in upending the 49ers, while the Lions lost a coin-flip game with the Titans that really could have gone either way. When it's a situation like that, go with the home team.

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers

Obviously this isn't a pick I want to make. But I've argued all week that the Falcons have been the most impressive of the undefeated teams thus far, with Matt Ryan truly making a leap to elite quarterback status. Perhaps no better 1-2 punch at receiver in the game with Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention a top-3 tight end of all-time rounding out his career in Tony Gonzalez. (Who else is in the top 3? Simple. Ditka and Gronk).

49ers (-4) over JETS

Rex Ryan trying to go all Belichick on us and toss an offensive player, in this case Joe McKnight, in to the defensive backfield. Troy Brown's ain't a dime a dozen. I like this plan to flop just like pretty much everything else has with the Ryan-era Jets. We realize we were a few Dan Carpenter missed field goals away from full-on Tebowmania this week?

CHIEFS (+1.5) over Chargers

Jamaal Charles's ACL looks to be alright. So does Norv Turner's September ways, as the Chargers were full-on embarrassed last week by the Falcons. I'll go with the home team getting points here.

TEXANS (-13) over Titans

Matt Schaub ain't afraid of Mike Tyson.

Seahawks (-3) over RAMS

The Seahakws have been the benefit of two of the most notorious calls of the fake-ref era. We all know about last Monday, but remember Week 1, when they were awarded 4 timeouts in the second half? They couldn't capitalize since they put their faith in Braylon Edwards, a known mistake, but things are happening in Seattle. New arena being built for the return of the NBA and maybe even NHL. The Oilers owners were in town last week touring Key Arena. You know, assuming the NHL ever has a season. Or future.

CARDINALS (-4) over Dolphins

The Cardinals are about to become one of the most perplexing 4-0 teams of all-time. Seriously did anyone see this coming? Like, anyone? And with Kevin Kolb no less? By the way, Philly fans, how's Vick doing?

BRONCOS (-7) over Raiders

Much like Tom Brady, I can't see a Peyton Manning-led team falling two games below .500. Or losing three in a row, for that matter, with two of the losses coming at home.

Bengals (+1.5) over JAGUARS

Ordinarily, I don't think there's any reason to get excited over a Bengals-Jaguars game. I'm having a hard time thinking if both teams were ever relevant at the same time. And they aren't of equal relevance today, either. But you know who's officiating this game today? It's the return of Ed Hochuli! Must-see TV all of a sudden. I can't figure out why the NFL didn't drop him on a primetime game for the life of me but hey, I don't think I've ever been more excited to see another man's biceps. In fact this is the only time I've ever been excited to see another man's biceps. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Saints

I'm a little disappointed Mike McCarthy's post-game press conference after the debacle Monday night didn't result in one of the all-time great blooper moments, along the lines of a Jim Mora "playoffs" or Dennis Green "they are who we thought they were". But I'm pretty sure off camera, he couldn't have been too thrilled, and nor could anyone on the Packers have been. For what it's worth, though, they still only would have won 12-7.....where's the offense? I'd say against the depleted Saints it finally wakes up. I'm confident enough in that I'll bestow Lock of the Week status here.

Redskins (+2) over BUCCANEERS

If it's essentially a coin-toss of a game, look to quarterback play. RGIII over Josh Freeman any day of the week and twice on Sunday's. Which is perfect, because today's Sunday.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants

Nick Foles isn't about to become a starting NFL quarterback.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bears

Has any team looked uglier than the Bears the last two weeks, despite winning one of those games? I think they'll play better against the 'Boys, but it's time for them to have a breakout game too. Home team on a Monday night.

The 2004 Red Sox Reunion Show

An eight year reunion? Oh really? What's next, the 17 1/2 year reunion in April 2021? Don't forget the 23 2/3 year reunion in June 2027. I guess I get that it's the 100th year of Fenway but other than that just another "desperate move by a desperate player", in the words of Chris Boyle. John Henry and the gang trying to cash in on a soon-to-be 90 loss season. Last time Red Sox lost 90 games? 1966, but I digress.

No why I'm really writing this is that Nomar was there. Nomahhhhhhh. Let it all out. Bettah than Jetah and A-Rawd once upon a time, right? How quickly people seem to forget.....

....that Nomar was actually traded away during the 2004 season? Like we won in spite of Nomar? July 31, 2004, one of the most important dates in your Red Sox history books. Out goes Nomah, who'd played in just 38 of the teams first 90 games. In comes Orlando Cabrera to save the day at shortstop, rescuing us from an August and September of the Pokey Reese/Caesar Crespo/Ricky Gutierrez triumvirate. 

How quickly people forget that if that trade isn't made, the Red Sox don't win the 2004 World Series. End of story. And who knows what the chain of reactions would be that followed? They wouldn't necessarily have won it all in 2007. A change in course could have occurred following '04. Remember, aside from Nomar, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe were also slated to become free agents following the season. Neither of them returned as it was. Could you imagine losing both of them after not winning it all?

So my gripe, basically, is that the team acts like Nomar was an integral part of the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Letting him hold the trophy at the like. No he wasn't! You know who was at Fenway more times than Nomar in August and September of that season? ME! I WAS THERE TWICE! HE WAS IN CHICAGO! I remember this game very clearly, D-Lowe having the Angels at his mercy. Couldn't tell you the second game, but I remember distinctly me and Jesse screaming at Kevin Millar and ultimately getting him to wave at us. Hey I was 13, right on that fringe of it being cute or pathetic.

Speaking of cute or pathetic, this reunion show fell on the side of "pathetic". A Two and a Half Men reunion show with Charlie Sheen would have made more sense last night than this. John Henry though.....all about the fans.

.....Nomahhhhhhhh!

Torrey Smith, "The Last Time", and the best commissioner in sports

Disclaimer 1: Sorry I forgot my picks column yesterday. I did write them down, just never posted them. Went 6-9 through the first 15 games of the weekend. My "Lock of the Week" was Saints over Chiefs. We saw how that turned out.

Disclaimer 2: This isn't a recap of the Patriots game yesterday. My quick opinions: officiating was equally horrendous for both sides and therefore cannot be blamed for the loss. Try more handing the ball off to Danny Woodhead 15 times for just 34 yards, including some inexplicable run calls in the 4th quarter. Whether the kick was good or not, we may never know. 

Torrey Smith's performance last night could be described with one word: Favreian, as I tweeted last night. What's the correlation? Remember when the gunslinger played a nationally televised night game just a day after his father's death, torching the Raiders for 399 yards? Smith, in case you didn't hear, dealt with the loss of his younger brother in the early morning hours of Sunday. It would have been easy for him to take the game off and tend to his family. Instead? 6 catches, 127 yards, 2 touchdowns. He's another level of mental toughness I can't even begin to explain, just that it's Favreian.

Okay, now for the Patriots aspect of things. One of my favorite games to play is "the last time". Like, "the last time this happened, that happened." And it has to be something mind-boggling. For example: "before this season, the last time the Orioles had a winning record, Seinfeld was still in its 9th season and Hong Kong was still under British rule" or "the last time Frank Ryan won anything meaningful in fantasy sports, both members of the Levin family got straight A's." Only one of these scenarios is true, by the way.

What's this "the last time" for? The Patriots currently sit at 1-2, below .500. The last time they were below .500 at any point in a season? September 7, 2003, when the team was blown out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, 31-0. Consider the last time the Patriots were below .500,

• Drew Bledsoe was the starting quarterback for the Bills that day.

• Among other starting quarterbacks that weekend: Patrick Ramsey, Quincy Carter, Tommy Maddox, and Jeff Blake

• David Wells out-dueled Jeff Suppan, as the Yankees beat the Red Sox 3-1. Mariano Rivera earned save no. 276 on his career, a total he's since more than doubled to 608.

• The following Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks were still in college: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers.

• The first NHL lockout hadn't even happened yet!

• Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia were still in the Big East; Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Missouri were still in the Big XII, and Penn State's losing streak was only at 62 games.

• Major combat had been over in Iraq for nearly 4 months. Seriously, look it up.

• "Shake Ya Tailfeather" by Nelly, Diddy, and Murphy Lee was no. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. "P.I.M.P" by 50 Cent was no. 4

• I'm not sure what the demographics of are the blog these days, what the split of readers is between Hingham and Rhode Island, but I'd guess that less than half of the people reading this knew who I was. In fact, some of you were at least 6 years away from getting to know me, at least.

• Two and a Half Men would be making its series premier in three weeks

• There were only 313 episodes of The Simpsons. We're now at 508, with Season 23 set to premier this coming Sunday.

• Carly Rae Jepsen was a senior in high school.

Get the idea? It's been awhile. 

Now on to the most pressing of issues: Who's the best commissioner in professional sports right now? Is it Gary Bettman, who's league is currently in it's third work stoppage under his watch, and looking at a second cancelled season? 

Is it David Stern, who infamously vetoed the Chris Paul deal to the Lakers, almost lost an entire NBA season, dealt with the Tim Donaghy scandal, who's almost certainly rigged some draft lotteries, and let the SuperSonics literally be stolen from Seattle?

Is it Bud Selig, a man who's cancelled the World Series, declared the all-star game a tie, dealt with (by far) the most rampant use of performance-enhancing drugs of the four leagues, and currently has a post-season format for the Divisional Series (this season, anyways) where the team with home-field advantage won't play a home game until Game 3 of the series? And these are 5 gamers.

Or is it perhaps Roger Goodell, the man in charge of the most popular of the leagues, the one who's dealing with so much fallout from concussion lawsuits the league has been turning an eye on for years, the one who's league brought in roughly $10 billion in revenue a year ago, yet won't pay professional referees a matter of $5 million more per season, a man who despite all we've learned about concussions wants to add two regular-season games, a man who by letting these replacement officials run around, has essentially turned the league into the WWF? Yet another commissioner who almost lost a season due to a lockout? A man who's had no checks and balances in handing out punishments for players, most notably the Saints bounty scandal?

I defy you to come up with an answer for this one, because I sure as hell can't tell who it is. Be sure to vote in the poll. At the top of the page.

PS I have absolutely no idea who the MLS commissioner is, or if they even have one, but props to him for staying out of the headlines. Although with all sports in such disarray at the top, wouldn't this be an excellent opportunity for soccer to enter the mainstream in America? If not now, then never.

NFL Week 2 Picks

It's easy to forget just how great these Autumn Sunday's can be. Having the NFL back on puts the Funday back in Sunday. The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Cleveland Browns spent a 1st round pick on a 28-year old quarterback who posted a 5.1 quarterback rating. Anytime a QB rating is just three points higher than my GPA, that should be a major red flag.

What else stayed the same in Week 1? How about the Patriots offense looking as spry and dynamic as ever. Gronkowski and Hernandez had about as close to identical stats as you can get. Gronk: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD. Hernandez: 6 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD. Is it a stretch to say the Patriots have the best two tight ends in the NFL? I'll spot Jimmy Graham and maybe Vernon Davis (despite being denied by the crossbar). But having two of the top four tight ends in the league is a luxury that, well.....it really makes you laugh about the Ben Watson and Daniel Graham days. Alright Grahmer was a decent blocker but lets move on.

After a fairly sluggish 2011 picking games, finishing well below .500, I got off and running last week. 10-6, against the spread? If I were a degenerate gambler I would've been buying everyone rounds at Bon Vue this past week, I'll leave it at that. Straight cash homie. But how do I avoid a Week 2 let down? It's quite simple. Certain things just CAN'T happen. For instance, Thursday night's game, Green Bay vs. Chicago? I would've bet my left testicle the Pack would prevail. Why? A team that went 15-1 a year ago isn't going to start 0-2 at home. Can't happen, won't happen. Easy money.

So that's basically the key: there's certain things which after surveying the previous season just simply can't and won't happen. Think the Steelers are going to start 0-2 against a Revis-less Jets team? I'm saying lay out your "Terrible Towels" on Revis Island today. Patriots losing a home opener for the first time since like 1994? Yeah that ain't happening either. Just remember these things as you read through my picks.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 11-6
This Week: 1-0
Locks of the Week: 1-0 (Patriots over Titans)

Home team in CAPS

GIANTS (-8) over Buccaneers

Here's another easy one for the law of averages. The worst defending Super Bowl champions of all time won't start 0-2. Although it would be comical that they'd be 9-9 in their last 18 regular season games. But remember kids, you can't spell "Elite" without "Eli". Or something.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Cardinals

What happened the last time the Patriots played the Cardinals back in 2008? New England won 47-7. Arizona later went to the Super Bowl and the Patriots missed the playoffs despite going 11-5. Keep in mind Kurt Warner was under center for the Cards that today; today, it's Kevin Kolb. Absolutely no bitterness about the 9-7 Cardinals making it to the Super Bowl that year though (and damn near winning). I just don't get it sometimes.

COLTS (+3) over Vikings

Does Andrew Luck get outplayed by Christian Ponder? No, no he doesn't. Jim Irsay will be pulling all the punches he can for Indy's home field advantage. By the way, top follows on twitter in no particular order: @thechrisburnham, @DanaB_Number3, @FauxJohnMadden, @buffspartan28, and @JimIrsay. For what it's worth.

PANTHERS (+3) over Saints

My buddy Robert Danis, freshman at Elon University in North Carolina, is attending Cam's home opener today. More jealous I could not be. He asked me who I had in this game, and obviously I went with Cam. My explanation? It's his world, we're just living in it.

BILLS (-3) over Chiefs

I picked Buffalo to win an AFC wild-card. Can't abandon ship after just one week. Remember, the 2003 Patriots lost their season opener 31-0 on their way to winning the Super Bowl. Just disregard that Tom Brady was the quarterback in that one, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is in this one, and it makes perfect sense.

Ravens (+3) over EAGLES

I'd say 99% of the time, lines in the NFL make sense. This is the 1%. Baltimore won 44-13 in Week 1. Philadelphia did win, 17-16, but it was against the Browns and Mike Vick had 4 interceptions. I don't get it but take these three free points, they don't come around often. Do I hear Lock of the Week? Yes, yes I do.

Raiders (-1.5) over DOLPHINS

Raiders have been favored in their first two games. Maybe the times are a-changin. They're still brutal, but not nearly as brutal the Ryan Tannehill Express. Did I mention his wife is a certified smokeshow though? It evens out for the kid.

BENGALS (-7) over Browns
Texans (-6.5) over JAGUARS

Mediocrity never wins, so why start now?

Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS

I'm not saying I'm completely buying Tony Romo's Week 1 performance just yet, but I'm definitely jumping on the bandwagon if he can duplicate it in Seattle. Winning against the worst defending champs of all time on opening night, followed by an extremely difficult stadium to win in, Seattle? The Romocoaster is trending upwards.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS

The DC area now has RGIII, Bryce Harper, Steven Strasburg, and Alexander Ovechkin to root for. Not a bad haul from the days of Rex Grossman, no baseball team followed by Livan Hernandez, and Peter Bondra, is it?

STEELERS (-3.5) over Jets

Biggest mirage from Week 1? 48 points from the Jets, and it's not even close. I'll be surprised if they score 48 more points the rest of the month, especially without Dustin Keller today in the Steel City. Get ready for Skip Bayless tomorrow morning, in other words.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Titans

For once, the Chargers are flying under the radar thanks to a certain surgically-repaired quarterback in Denver. Could be a role they thrive in, with tempered expectations. But if they finally figure out how to win in September and October under Norv Turner? Just remember to thank me when the Chargers are 6-2 and the national media picks up the scent.

49ERS (-7) over Lions

Rand University's most famous alum had his best game since leaving Foxboro, and I couldn't be happier for the man. I just wish he was still splitting through defense in our neck of the woods, but he sure looks like he's going to be more and more useful for the 49ers. If Peyton's neck falls apart, he's a lock for Comeback Player of the Year....

Broncos (+3) over FALCONS

....I'm not doctor, but Dr. Collinsworth put it this way last Sunday. So I'll close it out with the wise words of Cris Collinsworth himself: "I'm not sure how his neck feels, but his brain sure looks fine".

NFL Week 1 Picks

Damn I haven't blogged since June 29? If the Summer of Gronk was a 10, and the Summer of George was a 0, I'd clock in right around the middle at 5. It was a great summer, just not one filled with mixing it up with porn stars a la Gronk. But I didn't slip and fall on invitations while being unemployed, either. So I'll put myself in the middle.

I regret not blogging at all, however. I mean sure I was busy this summer, trying out a few new jobs and what not, but all kinds of crazy things have happened since late June. For what it's worth, that's the day I started work for my father, so I guess I was stripped of my soul in some ways.

So I already went over my NFL predictions on the air between last Thursday and Friday's show, but a quick recap of your 12 playoff teams:

AFC: Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Chargers, Bills
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Bears, Panthers

Super Bowl XLVII: Patriots over 49ers

Now there's no telling how many brain cells I've destroyed between now and my most recent blog posting, but have no fear, I will continue to deliver high quality blogs with my picks all season long. I'm back. And maybe I'll even start writing about some other things again. To be fair, nobody really wants to read about the Red Sox soap opera, do they? But so help me God if there's an NHL lockout, my opinions of Gary Bettman will make their way to a computer screen near you.

Alright how about these Week 1 picks? I already sniped Dallas over the most fraudulent defending champions in recent memory on Wednesday night, so I'm gonna try to keep batting 1.000 here.

Home team in CAPS

BEARS (-9.5) over Colts

For years, the Bears defense has been their signature, the reason they've been an intriguing sleeper candidate all along. I mean Rex Grossman sure as hell didn't lead them to Super Bowl XLI. Between Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, you knew week in, week out, you had two of the best linebackers on the field at any given moment in Chicago. And that's still the case. However....

....this is the best offensive team fans at Soldier Field will have witnessed since....ever? Not to compare Matt Forte to Walter Payton by any means, but it's been so long since even an average offense existed in the Chicagoland area. The build-up has been coming for a few years now, since drafting Forte and acquiring Jay Cutler, but the moves the team made this off-season could put them over the top. Brandon Marshall is what he is, a completely insane yet driven individual who thrived with Cutler during their marriage in Denver. 102 and 104 catches, respectively, in their two full seasons together (2007-08). The addition of Michael Bush to the backfield to spell Forte is a monumental upgrade over Marion Barber.

Andrew Luck and the Colts will be competitive, just not this week against a surefire playoff team.

Eagles (-9.5) over BROWNS

Which Cleveland team has more hope, the Browns, Indians, or Cavaliers? It's almost like asking whether there's more hope for peace in Sudan, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Surely, the degrees differ. But not to the Clevelanders.

Bills (+3) over JETS

Over/under on sacks today for new acquisitions Mario Williams and Mark Anderson? Two apiece sounds fair, right? Which is funny, because I'm assuming there'll be about four plays where Tim Tebow is under center for the Jets. You may not know this, but I have a strong feeling the Tebow/Sanchez thing isn't going to end well.

Redskins (+8) over SAINTS

I kinda wish I had known the bounty suspensions would be voided before making my season predictions....but I'll stand by 'em. The Saints still can't run the ball, and who knows how effective Jonathan Vilma will be. Not saying they fall off the face of the Earth, but a 9-7 type of season feels about right. RGIII will have the best debut of the 5 rookie QB's.

Patriots (-5.5) over TITANS

Pats getting less than a touchdown? Really? This could be a 2007 type of opener, where the offense absolutely explodes to the tune of 38 points. Hopefully there's no accusations of illicit camera activity afterwards, though. I'm so confident in the Pats today I'll even bestow my "Lock of the Week" pick for them.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Jaguars

At least Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew will actually play, albeit coming off of major ACL surgery and a holdout. Thing is, they're still the best offensive players on each team, even with their restrictions.

TEXANS (-13) over Dolphins

If I had one pick for a team that could go 0-16....it's the Fins. Ryan Tannehill's wife is the only reason to watch Miami, although it is a damn good reason.

LIONS (-9.5) over Rams

According to Adam Schefter, there's a female official in this game. I have a paper to write on women's rights due tonight. Maybe I'll have to give this game a whirl after all.

Falcons (-2.5) over CHIEFS

Tony Gonzalez back in Kansas City! This Falcons offense has the potential to be scary good this year in Tony G's swan song, and with no Brandon Flowers today, Matt Ryan should get off to a great start against the Kansas City defense.

49ers (+5) over PACKERS

Any time an offense that already had Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Frank Gore can go out and add Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and Brandon Jacobs....not to mention return all 11 starters from one of the top defenses in the league....you have to be thinking Super Bowl or bust, right?

Panthers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

Take the money and run with this pick. Cam Newton's sophomore season is bound to be even more impressive than his rookie campaign. You don't think he's ticked off people are saying RGIII is going to be better than him? Panthers in the playoffs. Book it.

Seahawks (-2.5) over CARDINALS 

I do think the Seahawks will be a fun team to watch with Russell Wilson. I also think Bill Simmons has officially "jumped the shark" by picking Seattle to go to the Super Bowl. Really Simmons? Grantland was already a questionable enough move but now this? It's like when Survivor had Coach and Ozzy come back the same season. Just absolutely no need or correlation to anything whatsoever.

BRONCOS (-2) over Steelers

There's absolutely no ceiling or floor for what Peyton Manning could do this season. It's virtually unprecedented. Broncos could go 12-4 and make the Super Bowl and I wouldn't be all that surprised, or they could flop and go 7-9 and I wouldn't be all that surprised. Just know that if Manning's neck doesn't hold up, and there's a QB controversy somewhere in New York soon, and a certain left-handed quarterback emerges and starts winning games....like I said, it's all unprecedented.

RAVENS (-7) over Bengals

I'm afraid this is the year age catches up with the Ravens D. Ed Reed to is too fragile, and Terrell Suggs is out for at least the first six weeks. More pressure on Joe Flacco and the offense than ever before. Fortunately, week 1 pits them against a Bengals team that hasn't had back-to-back winning seasons since the early 1980's. We shall see.

Chargers (+1.5) over RAIDERS

Norv Turner has used up 8.5 of his 9 lives....and surely he won't survive another slow start this year. But I'm not buying that anything will be different in Oakland. The argument "a full season of Carson Palmer".....is that necessarily a good thing?