Wait, it all makes sense now!

How could I have forgotten this? No wonder the Red Sox choked this year. It was inevitable when John Henry let LeBron James have a stake in Liverpool in April! I feel so much better about everything now it's not even funny. All we need is for King Henry to buy out LeBron and we'll go back to winning World Series and all that good stuff. Man oh man am I dumb for forgetting this.

Last night was awfully crazy, I wish we taped it

You know how sometimes on a Saturday or Sunday morning, you wake up in your bed, and start thinking "wait, how the hell did I get here?" Or "Jesus, I hope I didn't do anything too regrettable last night". And then you go out into your living room or dorm room, check your phone, start asking people "what the hell happened last night?"

It's almost 2 P.M. as I'm starting to write this, and I can tell you that I still don't totally believe what happened last night. And not because it was some crazy gnarly weekend story like I referenced above. I truly can't believe what happened last night happened. But it did. I didn't go to bed until almost 4 in the morning trying to decipher it, deciding whether this is more like Aaron Boone, David Tyree, or the Bruins blowing a 3-0 series lead against Philly. To be honest, it incorporates parts of all three nightmares. And there's just a little help from the Yankees-Rays game too.

The 2010 Bruins jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Semis and were looking towards a potential ECF match-up with Montreal. The 2011 Red Sox had a 9-game wild-card lead on September 2 and were already looking towards a potential Sox-Yanks ALCS. The Yankees were up 7-0 on Tampa last night. The 2010 Bruins lost the next three games but jumped out to a 3-0 lead in Game 7 at home. The 2011 Red Sox had gone 7-19 in September through last night's game but held the lead going into the bottom of the 9th with Jonathan Papelbon, he of just two blown saves all season, on the hill. Both the Bruins and the Red Sox lost their respective games 4-3.

Of course, both of these Boston teams had fatal flaws that as the seasons progressed, we knew they wouldn't be winning any championships. The Bruins didn't have a single 30-goal scorer and had Steve Begin playing on the second line and Dennis Wideman on the top defensive pairing. The Red Sox had John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, Andrew Miller, and Andrew Weiland starting games in September (and damn near brought in Bruce Chen). The Red Sox also had no bullpen to speak of other than Papelbon and Aceves over the past month.

The Bruins went through a 10-game losing streak in the middle of the season. The Red Sox started 0-6 and 2-10 before finally--seemingly--turning things around and looking like the juggernaut they were designed to be.

The 2007 Patriots were expected to do great things on the field, after losing to the Colts in the AFC title game a year before and acquiring Wes Welker, Randy Moss, and Donte' Stallworth to help Tom Brady. The 2011 Red Sox were expected to do great things on the field, after an injury-plagued 2010 campaign saw them add Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the arsenal. And for at least stretches, Gonzalez performed like Moss and Welker did. Crawford performed more like Stallworth for the entire season.

The '07 Patriots finished the regular season 16-0 and won their first two playoff games, and held a 14-10 fourth quarter lead on the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The '11 Red Sox were 82-51 at one point, had a 9-game lead in the wild-card, and were still threatening to challenge 100 wins for the first time since 1946. David Tyree caught a ball off his helmet. In the Yankees-Rays game, Dan Johnson (hitting .108 on the season) hit a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 9th to send the game to extras. Tyree never caught another ball in the NFL, and it's entirely possible Johnson will never hit another home run in the MLB. The Patriots lost 17-14, coming within 35 seconds of going 19-0. The Rays came back from down 7 to win, 8-7 in the 12th inning.

The more I think about it, there's really no similarities between Aaron Boone and the 2011 Red Sox, other than the fact that they both involve the Red Sox. But the 2003 Red Sox were clearly a superior team to this 2011 outfit. That lineup was solid 1-9. Maybe the '11 version had a few guys who out-performed several of the '03 members, but once you got beyond Ellsbury/Pedroia/Gonzalez/Ortiz, that was it. Anytime you sent out Crawford, Varitek/Saltalamacchia, Lowrie, etc. you were rolling the dice one way or the other. The 2003 Red Sox were good enough to win the World Series. The 2011 Red Sox were not. Point blank.

And perhaps the biggest shame of all is that it will cost Jacoby Ellsbury American League MVP. First 30-30 season in Red Sox history. That goes all the way back to 1901, people. He led the Majors in total bases, as well as extra-base hits (83), hit .322/.376/.552, played some very good D out in center, and drove in 105 guys out of the leadoff spot. He was third in the Majors in runs scored, third in hits with 212 (right behind Michael Young and Adrian Gonzalez, who each hit 213). Let's hope that this wasn't just a flash in the pan, but something that can become protocol for Ells.

Moving forward, the Red Sox have an awful lot of issues to address for a team with a payroll not too far from $200 million. John Lackey is clearly damaged goods. Carl Crawford didn't realize what jumping from Tampa Bay to Boston meant. There's question marks at catcher, right field, and shortstop for next year (although personally I'd love to see them bring Scutaro back. That's right, Scutaro is probably our best shortstop since Nomar. Wish I was joking). They need at least two starting pitchers, depending on the health of Buchholz. Beckett and Lester were both god-awful in the month of September. Daniel Bard regressed as the season went along. Papelbon is a free agent. What will happen with Terry Francona and Theo Epstein? 

It's too soon to answer many of those questions. So I'll leave them as they are for now. But just know that the Red Sox have missed the playoffs two consecutive seasons now. One happens. Two shouldn't. Three won't. Or else.

Bruce Chen Huh?

I mean the notion itself is self-explanatory. Theo Epstein is considering bringing in Bruce Chen to start a potential one-game playoff tomorrow vs. Tampa Bay. Bruce Chen. Bruce bleepin' Chen. And you know what the really scary part is? I probably feel safer with him than John Lackey or Tim Wakefield. What does that tell you about the way this team was put together? For crying out loud, can Dice-K come off the disabled list? There's a sentence that nobody ever could have envisioned saying back in May. This team's pitching staff is about as deep as a toddler's pool.

And if Theo does bring in Chen, isn't that a slap to the face of the already volatile Lackey, who apparently gets upset when members of the Boston media text him? He's going to be counted on to actually win us a real playoff game at some point?

So there's your options for tomorrow (assuming it's necessary). John Lackey, 45-year old Tim Wakefield (on 3 days rest, no less) and Bruce Chen. How's about that Green Day tune "Wake Me Up When September Ends" and let's just hope there's life in October.

Two more fun facts:

• Did you know Bruce Chen has a previous stint in Boston? It's true. Look it up. Back in 2003. Wanna know what happened last time Theo brought back someone from the 2003 pitching staff? Rudy Seanez happened again.
• Totally irrelevant to this blog, but when I searched the image for "we're screwed", 49ers QB Alex Smith came up on the 4th row of pictures. Just a picture of him throwing a pass. 

162

It shouldn't have come to this. If anything this game should have been to determine if the Sox would win 100 games or not. But this whole 7-19 September can be easily forgotten with a win tomorrow. Should the Rays win, it'll take 163. Win 'em both, we can just pretend the entire month of September never happened, much like Rocky V, the WNBA, or Soulja Boy Tell'em's entire career. Lose tomorrow, and quite frankly the Red Sox don't deserve to be in the post-season, even if the Rays lose and it comes to 163. Lester's our supposed ace. I picked him to win the Cy Young this year. Clearly that won't happen, but it's safe to say it's the biggest game he's pitched since Game 4 of the 2007 World Series.

Sometimes you just gotta believe.

Collapse of the Century

All of a sudden that 2-10 start doesn't seem so pathetic. In fact, maybe it can be looked upon as a realization. That this Red Sox team was indeed fatally flawed from the get-go, and the success they enjoyed May-August was a mirage.

To an extent that logic is completely ridiculous. Jacoby Ellsbury is definitely a top 3 MVP candidate right now and if they some how hold on here, it's his to lose. If Adrian Gonzalez's expectations were for him to be a 10 out of 10 coming in here, he's certainly been a solid 9. David Ortiz is having his best season in years, and  Dustin Pedroia has been challenging the numbers of his own MVP season from 2008. Heck even Marco Scutaro is flirting with .300.

But beyond those positives, this team was being held together by string, not steel. Does anyone realize that Tim Wakefield has the best ERA of any Red Sox starter in the month of September (5.25; minimum 4 starts)? Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, our so-called "aces", have posted 5.48 and 5.96 ERAs, respectively. And I'm not even going to breach the subject of John Lackey.

After Papelbon and the surprising Alfredo Aceves, the bullpen has been a complete disaster. Daniel Bard got off to a terrible start, seemingly shook it off, but has since regressed to the point that re-signing Papelbon has got to be a top priority for this team in the off-season. I'd say priority number one, but.....how can you have faith in anyone in the rotation right now?

I'll give Lester the benefit of the doubt, he's having a bad month. I keep trying to figure out what's wrong with Josh Beckett, and it's damn near impossible. His overall numbers on the season are terrific. Opponents hitting .211 off him, accumulating a measly .608 OPS. His WHIP of 1.03 is excellent. 2.89 ERA? Would be a career-best, along with every other statistic I just rattled off. The only even slightly damning number is his ERA in the 6th inning: 4.32. Not great, but not terrible either per se.

What does it mean for Beckett though? His numbers through the first five innings of games look like this: 3.90, 2.10, 0.90, 3.03, 2.86. So if he gets through the first, chances are he'll give you five quality innings. But is that enough? Especially with the bullpen in the flux that it's in? Beckett is already 31, believe it or not, and he's definitely put on a few pounds recently, to say the least. Is this September a sign of an imminent decline?

Because if so, the Red Sox are screwed here. Lester will be the clear no. 1 heading into next spring training, with either a sketchy Beckett or a health-concern Buchholz to follow. After that are we really going to have to talk ourselves into another three years of John Lackey? Is Tim Wakefield coming back for a 17th season with the Red Sox? 

Theo Epstein, if he even lasts this collapse, can't make any panic moves either. John Lackey was a panic move just because the Yankees won the World Series after signing CC and Burnett. Carl Crawford was a panic because the Red Sox won "only" 89 games with half their team in the infirmary. 

All I'm saying here is that this collapse, troubling as it may be, might really just be channeling Dennis Green's "They are who we thought they were!" rant. The Red Sox had great lineups every year almost between 1919 and 2003. Only once they started to get pitching in place, in 2004 and 2007, did they crack the World Series curse. Even if this team does back into the post-season, whether it's Texas or Detroit awaiting them, it's gonna be a quick and painless killing. Which is funny because of how painful all of September has been, with this 6-19 business and all.

 

But just by getting to the post-season, regardless in which manner, is better than being remembered as the team that blew a 9-game wild-card lead in September. The 2007 Mets, 1964 Phillies, and those 1978 Red Sox hopefully stay in a league of their own.

NFL Week 3 Picks

The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10. Cam Newton has thrown for over 400 yards in both his outings. The Colts are 0-2. The Redskins, Lions, and Bills are 2-0. Chris Johnson is averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Josh McCown has been benched.....

Okay so that last one was about as easy to predict as the seasons changing from summer to fall this past week. Other than that? It sure ain't last year anymore. But after two weeks, there's definitely some assumptions that can be made to distinguish 2011 from 2010.....

1. The Chiefs, having already lost their best offensive AND defensive player to injury, are already looking towards getting Andrew Luck. 
2. Peyton Manning should be an MVP candidate for the sole reason of how the Colts go from at the very least a wild-card contender to staring 4-12 right in the face without him.
3. The Buffalo Bills are leading the NFL in offense through two weeks (39.5 ppg), and to be honest, just might hang around in the AFC wild-card picture.
4. The Seattle Seahawks won't be defending their 7-9 division title from a year ago.
5. Tom Brady is even better than last year, when he won an MVP.
6. The "trick or treat" moniker once given to former Celtics great Tony Allen? Time to hand the reigns to the Tony on America's Team, Tony Romo.
7. Mike Tolbert is leading the league in receptions (17) through two weeks. Last year, he didn't haul in his 17th catch until Week 11.
8. Steve Smith (Panthers) has 334 receiving yards, to lead the league. Last year, he didn't record his 334th yard until Week 10.....

Those are eight elite facts just to prove how crazy things get in the NFL from season-to-season. I like to pride myself on being good at picking winners of these games, but I've been stumbling worse than the Red Sox coming out of the gate here. But it's a new week. Lez go:

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 11-18-3

Locks of the Week: 2-0 (Steelers over Seahawks in Week 2)

Home team in CAPS

BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers

It's hard to fathom the Bengals situation. They're in Year 8 of Marvin Lewis Error Era. They're trusting a rookie QB (Andy Dalton) and a rookie WR (A.J. Green) to lead the offense. Their top rusher (Cedric Benson) spent some time in jail a few weeks back. WR Jerome Sampson just got busted for having two pounds of pot marijuana delivered to his house. And yet....

They're 1-1 so far, could easily be 2-0. They've got the 49ers this week, followed by the Bills, Jaguars, Colts,  Seahawks, and Titans before they face the Steelers in Week 10. Granted, the Bengals are in the same tier as most of those teams, so it's never safe to pencil in wins and losses. Things continue to bounce their way? Is 6-2 out of the realm of possibility? Cut to Carson Palmer nodding vigorously.

PANTHERS (-3) over Jaguars

If Cam Newton can throw for 432 against the Packers secondary....

VIKINGS (+3) over Lions

Must-win for Minnesota to keep their season alive. And the Lions looked just a little too good against the Chiefs last week. Call it a Jerry Seinfeld "Even Steven" game. Plus, Detroit hasn't won in the Metrodome since Barry Sanders was donning a Lions uni. Warrants mentioning.

TITANS (-7) over Broncos

Chris Johnson is due for a marquee performance to remind people that he's at least still in the conversation for "best running back alive". No more of this 24 carries, 53 yards nonsense. Denver should be the perfect remedy.

Dolphins (+1.5) over BROWNS

If Peyton Hillis were playing, I'd stick with the Browns. Going to be real interesting to see how the Dolphins use Reggie Bush in this one. Think about the running backs taken in the first two rounds of the 2006 draft. Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Addai, LenDale White, and Maurice Jones-Drew.

At best, you'd rank Bush no higher than third on that list, right? Personally I'd have him fourth even below Addai. And yet no one has ever really used the 'bust' label on Bush, who was the no. 2 overall pick. And if you recall the uproar the Texans got after they chose Mario Williams over Bush at 1....

Obviously it didn't effect the Saints, who won a Super Bowl with Bush on the roster, but even then he was really more a utility type, with Pierre Thomas shouldering most of the carries. And now you see Darren Sproles lighting it up in the Saints backfield, and they did use a 1st rounder on Mark Ingram this spring too. Last week Bush received only six carries. Unless that changes significantly this week, Bush is undoubtedly on the trajectory for bustdom more than ever before.

EAGLES (-8) over Giants

Sounds like Vick's good to go. Bad news for the banged up Giants secondary, who looked god-awful against the Rams last week. Really a no-brainer here.

SAINTS (-3.5) over Texans

Hey, it's the Mario Williams vs. Reggie Bush Bowl! Oh that's right we just talked about how Bush isn't even on the Saints anymore. Charley Casserly was crucified for that pick and eventually stepped down as Texans general manager as a result. I'm guessing he's modest about it, but I'd be playing that "Told you so!" card to no end. 

Texans still have a mediocre secondary though, and it's the Saints passing game we're talking about here. Houston can afford a loss though in the suddenly sullen AFC South.

Patriots (-7) over BILLS

I love the Bills. Love the whole angle that it's a team of nobodies. Really, where the hell did David Nelson come from? Who's this Fred Jackson from arena ball? Ryan Fitzpatrick should excel at something in life, being a Harvard grad and all, but in the NFL? Stevie Johnson?

Of course, Buffalo has been fortunate to face Kansas City and Oakland these past two weeks. On the Patriots banged-up D, they should still be able to score some points. But their defense hasn't seen anything quite like the Tom Brady attack yet. I do think these guys can hang around in the AFC playoff race, as I mentioned earlier, but they'll be circling the wagons in Orchard Park this week.

CHARGERS (-14) over Chiefs

San Diego is a Mike Tolbert fumble away from maybe being 2-0. Patriots would have had time to answer, obviously, but it's something to consider. Here's guessing Mike Tolbert could fumble multiple times today and it still won't matter.

Ravens (-6) over RAMS

Possibly the toughest game on the board. St. Louis staring down 0-3, which is by no means a death sentence in the NFC West, but it still ain't good for business. The Ravens looked as bad against the Titans as they looked good against the Steelers in Week 1. So we have no idea which Baltimore team will show up. Usually in a game like this I'd take the points, but there's too many injuries for the Rams on offense to overcome the mighty Ravens D.

Jets (-2.5) over RAIDERS

All I can say is....thank God this isn't Nnamdi Asomugha's homecoming to Oakland.

Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS

Definitely a coin-toss game. The Falcons looked great in rallying against the Eagles last weekend, while the Bucs were equally impressive in coming back against Minnesota. Just comes down to the Kevin Kelly adage once again: Gotta hunch, betta bunch. Falcons are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, Bucs aren't.

SEAHAWKS (+3) over Cardinals

From here on out, I vow never to go into detail on any pick where two NFC West teams square off against one another. Seattle can be tough at home, and they're underdogs. It'd be ballsy if I made this my Lock of the Week, but I like this game just a little bit more....

Packers (-4.5) over BEARS

The loss of Nick Collins will hurt, no question, but I'm pretty sure the Packers have suffered some devastating injuries in the past year or so and still won a Lombardi Trophy. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams might be the most underrated cornerback tandem in the league. And assuming Clay Matthews gets to Jay Cutler a few times, it'll go even further in his prediction that he won't last the season. Some competitor, right? Lock of the Week: Packers over Bears. Book it.

STEELERS (-10.5) over Colts

NBC definitely didn't anticipate it'd be Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kerry Collins when they filled out their Sunday night schedules. 

COWBOYS (-3) over Redskins 

Tony Romo vs. Rex Grossman on a national stage. Just makes for riveting Monday night entertainment. But on a serious note, these teams actually aren't all that bad. NFC East quietly making a comeback in the "toughest division in football" discussion against the NFC South. 

Gotta go with Cowboys at home, for no other reason that it's at Jerry World.

Ten Years Ago Today

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Mo Lewis never gets enough credit for being the catalyst for the Patriots Dynasty. Remember how Red Sox fans cheered Mariano Rivera at the home opener/ring ceremony in 2005? That's how all Patriots fans should treat Mo Lewis whenever they encounter him on the streets. He should never have to pay for a meal in the greater Boston area again.

As for Drew Bledsoe? He went on to float on through Buffalo and Dallas for the next five seasons, never coming close to the success he attained in New England. The draft pick the Patriots received in the Bledsoe deal with the Bills was ultimately used on Ty Warren, so I'd say that one also went in the Patriots favor.

Speaking of those Bills, it's been over eight years since they beat the Pats (the infamous "Lawyer Milloy Game", Week 1, 2003). How's about the Pats keep that up this weekend for the perfect 16-0 record vs. the Bills since?

Don't forget, Bledsoe was an essential part of the Patriots run in the playoffs, coming off the bench in the AFC Championship Game vs. Pittsburgh and throwing a TD pass to David Patten.

Patriots Through Two Weeks

Unfortunately, I don't have access to those fancy numbers available from the Elias Sports Bureau to put into perspective just how historic Tom Brady's first two weeks have been. Just about all of those crazy statistics you see on SportsCenter or in various sports columns are courtesy of said bureau.

Fortunately, I don't need those numbers to lay it out there. Not only is he leading the NFL in passing yardage through two weeks (940), that's the most ever thrown for in the first two weeks of a season. In 92 seasons of NFL football. He's also league-leader in QB rating (128.0) and completions (63), tied for the lead in touchdown passes (7), and mere percentage points behind Matt Stump the Shcaub in completion percentage (71.7 vs. 71.6).

Coming into this season, Tom Brady had not once, not even in the storybook record-book 2007 season, topped 400 yards passing in a game. He's now done it in back-to-back weeks. 

Brady's 940 yards through two games have him on pace to throw for 7,520 yards this season. Or, 2,436 more yards than the current NFL record of 5,084 held by Dan Marino. Is it realistic to think Brady will throw for 7,000 yards? Probably not. Is it realistic to think that Brady can not only break Marino's record this season, but break it substantially? Very much so.

Of the 940 yards accumulated so far by no. 12, just 59 of them have gone in the direction of prized off-season acquisition Chad Ochocinco, off of 3 catches. Way too early to write off the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson. But will it even matter if he ever gets going? 

Wes Welker and Deion Branch have each caught 15 balls apiece, totaling 241 and 222 yards, respectively. The 15 receptions through two weeks are good enough for a tie for third in the NFL. Curiously, San Diego back Mike Tolbert is the league leader in receptions, with 17. That puts him on a tidy pace for 136 on the season, which would be good enough for second on the all-time list. But I digress.

After two games, the Pats have dropped 38 and 35 points on the Dolphins and Chargers. That puts them on a pace for 584 points on the season.....just 5 less than the NFL record 589 set by, you guessed it, the 2007 Patriots.

And what's a major difference between the 2011 lineup from the 2007 edition? Production from the tight ends.

Said tight ends have not only shown no sign of a sophomore slump, but in fact, have been even better so far in their second season. The duo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have combined for 24 catches, 337 receiving yards, as well as collecting 5 of Tom Brady's 7 touchdown passes. Word's leaking in this afternoon that Hernandez may miss a week or two with a sprained MCL, but this shouldn't have any negative effects on the offense. In fact, hopefully it means 85 gets more involved.

This takes us back to the 2007 angle. While Welker in particular, along with Jabar Gaffney and Dont'e Stallworth were essential in creating the juggernaut, make no mistake about it, that receiving corps clicked based off of one man, and one man only: Randy Moss. It's safe to say that too many comparisons between Ocho and Rand University were made prior to the season. People expected Chad to waltz right on in here, catch not 23 but 24 touchdown passes and in the process rack up 1,500 yards receiving and about 100 catches, give or take. 

Newsflash: Chad Ochocinco is not Randy Moss. Not even in the same stratosphere. Galaxy, maybe. But if you're ranking the wide receivers of the past decade, it goes Moss/Owens in no particular order, followed by a slew of others including, for sure, Ocho. But he never was on the same level as Randy Moss, and it's safe to say at this point he never will be.

That being said.....isn't a receiving corps consisting of a modified Ochocinco, Welker, Branch (lightyears more reliable than Gaffney or Stallworth), and the tight end tandem even more scintillating than the Moss, Welker......Gaffney/Stallworth/Ben Watson groupd?

And we haven't even mentioned the differences in the running game yet, but all you need to know is that Laurence Maroney was on that 2007 team, and he isn't on this one. 

Tying everything together, all I'm stating is that I think this 2011 offense is not only more well-balanced than in 2007, it's straight up better. Tom Brady himself is better, which is scary in of itself. I didn't mention the defense at all today, and that unit has been a tad concerning so far, but there's so many new pieces on that side of the ball that it'll take time for it to gel. Hopefully it's not a matter of if, but a matter of when it does indeed gel.

Bottom line: this team shouldn't be aspiring to go 19-0. It should be aspiring to win Super Bowl XLVI. Yet with the way things have looked through two weeks, it's hard not to think about the chances of both.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Boy did I get off to a rough start last week. Who knew the Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fred Jackson/Stevie Johnson trio in Buffalo was Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith/Michael Irvin 2.0? Then again, most of my other picks that went erstwhile, I should have seen coming. The Cleveland Browns being nearly a touchdown favorite in their season opener, with expectations labeled upon them? Tony Romo showing up for a big game? The Ravens clearly having more to prove than the Steelers? Tom Petty's latest single "I Should Have Known It" is the mantra here. Which is why I won't be getting duped on any of these NFL Week 2 picks. We're ready for prime time here at the Experience.

Last Week: 4-10-2
Locks of the Week: 1-0 (Patriots over Dolphins)


Home team in CAPS

Chiefs (+9) over LIONS
How exactly can you be "free falling" after just one game? And sure, the Chiefs laid arguably the biggest egg of any team, period, last weekend, contender or pretender. And they lost their top defensive player for the season in Eric Berry.

But we're talking about the Lions here. I'm wary to take a Lions team that's been labeled with those expectations I was talking about earlier with the Browns. And sure, there's plenty more talent in the Motor City than in the Dawg Pound. But you realize neither of these teams have ever made a Super Bowl appearance? And while the Lions did win their opener vs. Tampa, they hardly looked dominant. If Jahvid Best is getting the ball 21 times, he should top 72 yards, shouldn't he?

The Lions may prevail in this one, and I realize it's a sin to take an underdog unless you think they can win outright, but this feels like it's coming down to a Jason Hanson field goal late in the 4th.

BILLS (-4) over Raiders


Buffalo scored more points, while giving up fewer, than the Patriots did in Week 1. For what it's worth. And now they get to play that monstrosity of an organization in the Raiders, who barely beat the Broncos in the Monday night opener. In other words, the team who's fan base is openly clamoring for Tim Tebow.

Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS


Philadelphia Eagles Quarterbacks, circa 2009, in Week 1 of the 2011 season:

Mike Vick (Eagles): 14-32, 187 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 11 carries, 97 yards
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): 18-27, 309 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Donovan McNabb (Vikings): 7-15, 39 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

I rest my case.

SAINTS (-7) over Bears


Possibly the toughest game of the week. A million different factors in play here. Brian Urlacher with the "Brett Favre Rule", playing a game so shortly after the death of a parent (we remember Favre's stat line the night after his father's passing back in 2003). You also have the Saints trying to avoid an 0-2 start in the NFC South, where weirdly enough, an 0-2 start may not even be a death blow based on some of the other Week 2 opponents their divisional foes are playing.

And true, Marques Colston is out for this one, and the next several, with a broken collarbone. But he's missed time before, and the Saints possess some of the best depth at receiver in the NFL. The Saints were a play away from taking the defending champs to OT in the season opener. And Chicago looked almost too impressive in their unraveling of the Falcons. It's a big spread, but I think the Saints Brees by in this one.

Ravens (-6.5) over TITANS


If the Titans can't beat Luke McCown after one week of his being named starter, good luck. And I might mean Andrew Luck.

COLTS (+2) over Browns


I know, I know. The Colts being underdogs at home to anyone seems like a misprint. But this isn't 2002-2010 anymore. The "free falling" tag definitely can apply to the Colts through one week, if only because they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of all-time with Kerry Collins. I repeat, they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of ALL-TIME with KERRY COLLINS. And it's not like Edgerrin James is in the backfield to take the pressure off.

Having said all that....

The Browns are favored after their stinkbomb last week? They lost (at home, mind you) to the Cincinnata Bungles. Madden cover boy couldn't even get to 60 yards rushing. Colt McCoy completed under 50% of his throws. They even allowed Bruce Gradkowski to throw a touchdown pass on them. On principles alone, I have to take the Colts and the points on this one.

JETS (-9) over Jaguars


A Luke McCown-quarterbacked team cannot and will not start 2-0. It just can't happen. It's a physical impossibility. Ron Burgundy would say, it's science. Men just have larger brains than women. Luke McCown's just don't have 2-0 starts, even if it means that Mark Sanchez will. Whatever. Jets at home, they've gotta play a better game than they did against dem Cowboys, right?

STEELERS (-14.5) over Seahawks


You know how sometimes you look at a college football line and wince when you see that a team like Florida is favored by 35 points or something ridiculous against a team like Southwest Montana Institute of Technology? This game could have a line like that, and I think I'd still take the Steelers. I don't want to hear about how old they are, or the "Super Bowl Loser" curse either. At least not this week. Because the Seahakws are an abomination to the National Football League. Marshawn Lynch, 33 yards against the 49ers, really? And back to the age thing, I'm pretty sure the Steelers could bring back Rod Woodson and Mean Joe Greene and they'd still get the best of Tarvaris Jackson.

It's a ballsy call with the spread being so high, but it isn't at all. This is my Week 2 Lock of the Week.

REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals


If a rookie playing in his first ever NFL game can throw for 422 yards against the Cardinals secondary, what can Rex Grossman do? And I'm not trying to make Grossman sound elite or anything here, but I'm completely serious. He survived the Giants D, now he's gotta face this? Is he finally blooming into the quarterback we all thought he would become when the Bears took him in the 1st round back in 2003?

No. But the mirage will continue at least for another week. For crying out loud, the 'Skins coulda held onto McNabb and even he might throw for 100 yards against the Cards.

Packers (-10.5) over PANTHERS


Quick fantasy tangent: the Avengers drafted Peyton Manning in round 2 this year, back in early August, when it still appeared he'd be able to play a full 16 game season. Took Matt Cassel as a backup, because hey, you can totally survive one week of Matt Cassel if the other weeks are Peyton. Just for the hell of it, I picked up Cam Newton in the 13th round, partially so I could say I had two former Heisman winners on my squad (Mark Ingram being the other). Never thought I'd actually get around to playing Newton, much less hanging on to him once an injury to one of my starters occurred.

To spare you the gory details, I started Matt Cassel in place of Manning last week, with the logic being "there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards in his NFL debut". For the first time ever, the Avengers are in real danger of missing the post-season.

Back to reality: there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards again this week. Against the Packers. I'm not discrediting Newton's record mark, but I'm pretty sure he faced better secondaries in the SEC last year than Arizona. And if Scam can throw for that kind of yardage and the Panthers still lose, Go Pack Go.

Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS

Couldn't have asked for a better Week 2 match-up if you're a Cowboys fan, because no matter how many mistakes Tony Romo makes in this one, he's going up against Alex Smith. And the Cowboys really should have won that game, against a legitimate playoff team, by the way.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers


I won't be at Gillette, but I'm listening to Tom Brady and getting lubed up for this one. With Peyton Manning out, Philip Rivers assumes his spot on the active-QB Mount Rushmore along with Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. The over/under for this one is 54, but it doesn't specify if that's for the two teams combined or just for the Patriots. Regardless, I'll take the Pats and that "over" thing.

Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS


I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "hey, if Chad Henne can throw for 416 yards against the Patriots, doesn't that mean he'll be able to throw for 746 against the Texans?"

The Texans secondary is still clearly their Achilles's Heel, but the signing of Jonathan Joseph definitely gives them some street cred over the unit that ranked dead last against the pass in 2010. And Houston can't afford to blow their chance this year. All of their opponents in the AFC South have a list of problems that dwarfs in comparison to the problems facing the Obama White House. I'm only slightly exaggerating.

With or without Arian Foster, this Ben Tate dude seems to know what he's doing. Texas needs one legit football team; why not the Texans?

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bengals


I'd rather write a report about why the Marshall Islands could take down the Federated States of Micronesia if they ever decided to invade their Oceania neighbors.

Eagles (-3) over FALCONS


Vick's already been back to Atlanta once, granted when Donovan F. McNabb was still calling the shots, but still.

Bad timing for Matt Ryan to try and get in a groove with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Tony Gonzalez could have a big game for Atlanta, unless they decide to stick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on him. I still think the Falcons will be okay after an 0-2 start, because like I said earlier, it's entirely possible for every NFC South team to lose again this week.

But the Eagles were far from that dominant "dream team" status in beating the Rams a week ago, and even though I've been mocking the dream team stuff, if they want to get past the Packers, they gotta start somewhere. I think this could be the week, on national TV in prime time, that we get to find out what to really make of Philly.

GIANTS (-7) over Rams


Tough line because of all the injuries on both teams. It sounds like Sam Bradford is going to play for St. Louis, and even though Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola won't be out there, I still think he'll be able to keep St. Louis in this one. But the Rams aren't exactly used to playing on Monday Night Football in New York New Jersey, and much as I'd like to see the G-Men fall to 0-2, the talent disparity on offense is too overwhelming for the Rams to overcome without the two players I just mentioned. But St. Louis is in the NFC West, where forget about an 0-2 start, an 0-6 start isn't exactly a death kneel. The Rams will be alright ultimately, just not this week in the Meadowlands.

Mr. 200

On a night when Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia each went 4 for 5, scored 4 runs apiece, and combined for 3 home runs (not to mention snapping a 10 of 13 losing skid), you'd think that would be enough to grab all of the headlines out of Fenway.

But instead it was Boston's longest-tenured pro athlete, Tim Wakefield, finally getting a well deserved 200th victory. Sure this isn't as big a deal as 300, and he's got about a good as chance of getting into Cooperstown as Larry David did with the bisexual.

But nevertheless, since 1995, Tim Wakefield has been the epitome of consistency and reliability for the Red Sox. Never elite, not by any means, but a player you could ask to do just about anything, be it start, close, long relieve, etc. Wakes has been there, done all that in his stay with Boston. The quintessential "innings eater" that so many teams lack, the Red Sox have been set with one of those since the Pittsburgh Pirates severed ties with the knuckle-baller at the end of the 1994-95 player's strike. And you wonder why that team hasn't had a winning season since.

And Wakefield no question has been a consummate professional both on and off the field. He's up there with a Tim Thomas or Tedy Bruschi type as the classiest acts to pass through this city in recent years. Wakefield is so humble, so down to Earth, it seems as though many people have not only forgiven him, but forgotten it was him that gave up the home run to Aaron Boone in 2003. Sure winning two World Series between now and then helps, but I can't imagine Wakes ever befalling the same fate as Bill Buckner, class an act as he may be as well.

Moving forward, Wakefield now has 186 career victories with Boston. Six more will push him into a 3-way tie for most in franchise history with a couple of characters by the names of Roger Clemens and Cy Young. Who's to say Wakes won't be back in 2012 at the tender age of 46? After all, fellow knuckle-baller (and 300+ game winner) Phil Niekro pitched til 48.

The Red Sox needed this win tonight, and even though Wakefield wasn't at his best, he did just enough to get the job done. Which is what he's done his whole career here. Get the job done.

In Case You Forgot

Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the NFL. Has been for some time now. It's not Peyton Manning. It's not Aaron Rodgers. It's not Drew Brees, and it sure as hell ain't Derek Anderson or Mark Sanchez.

Coming into tonight's contest in South Beach, Brady had never thrown for over 400 yards in a game, which is really mind-boggling especially when you consider Matt Cassel managed the feat with the leftovers of the 18-0 offense in 2008 once.

But Brady didn't just stop once he hit 400. Nope, he became just the fourth quarterback of the millennium to eclipse 500 yards passing in a single game, joining Elvis Grbac, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger. The 517 passing yards were the most in an NFL game since Boomer Esiason went for 522 way back in 1996.

I'll do a full game recap tomorrow but for now, just realize that there's NFL teams out there trying to compete with Tarvaris Jackson, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Luke McCown, Tony Romo, Kerry Collins, and the corpse of Donovan McNabb. It's truly a pleasure what we get to witness here in New England.

Did you know?

It's NFL kickoff weekend. That's supposed to take center stage. Everything else is on the back burner, under the radar, because us American's can't get enough of this foosball.

But uh.....anyone notice what's going on with the Red Sox right now? Losers of 5 in a row, as well as 10 of their past 13, what once seemed like a mortal lock of a post-season birth is now anything but that. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are a mere 3.5 games back of the BoSox right now in the wild card chase. The Southern California Angels of Los Angeles and Anaheim are 5 back. Jon Lester, our only healthy reliable pitcher, got shelled yesterday. Dustin Pedroia is hitting .174 in September. Adrian Gonzalez dipped below the .340 mark for the first time last week since June 11. If they even make it to the playoffs, there's a very strong chance Andrew Miller, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, or Kyle Weiland will be our Game 2 starter.

This has a chance to be the biggest collapse in baseball since the 2007 Mets. I guess a lot of it comes back to that 2-10 start, when I posted this doozy of a blog. The most frustrating aspect of all this is that the Yankees haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire either; they had lost four in a row before winning yesterday. We're still just 3.5 back of them. But you don't need Shea Hillenbrand to come out of retirement to tell you that this is a sinking ship. It's not over yet, but boy it doesn't look good.....

NFL Week 1 Picks

Ran outta time last night to make these things so here we go now at just about 9 o'clock on a Saturday. Normally I'll go into more elaborate details over the selections but since I just did that whole preview thing I'll make 'em short and sweet.

Pittsburgh (+2) over Baltimore
Polamalu just became the latest Steeler defender to get a contract extension in the past month. Not like he'd be milking it anyways.

Tampa Bay (-2) over Detroit
Two teams a lot of people foresee breaking into the NFC playoff picture. It starts here.

Atlanta (-3) over Chicago
Let's see how good this Atlanta offense is. They'll be tested right off the bat by the ageless Bears defense.

Kansas City (-6) over Buffalo
Great opportunity for the Chiefs to get off to a quick start again and build momentum off of last season's success.

Houston (-8.5) over Indy
Is this, once and for all, FINALLY Houston's year? Couldn't ask for a better way to start things off than at Peyton's Place....without Peyton.

Philadelphia (-4.5) over St. Louis
Fitting that the Philly offense gets to open up in the Edward Jones Dome, the same place where the "Greatest Show on Turf" rewrote the record books.

Cleveland (-6.5) over Cincinnati
Colt McCoy was drafted in 2010 after both Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen. Just sayin'.

Tennessee (+2) over Jacksonville
It isn't often you get the chance to bet against Luke McCown in a season opener after he was just named starter the previous week. Gotta take advantage while you can.

NY Giants (-3) over Washington
Not that anyone on the Redskins is worthy of publicly raving about their chances of winning the NFC East, but Rex Grossman of all people?

Carolina (+7) over Arizona
The dawn of the Cam Newton era in Carolina vs. the beginning of the Kevin Kolb period in Arizona. I'll take the money and run with Scam.

Seattle (+5.5) over San Francisco
When Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith are both involved, take the points.

San Diego (-8.5) over Minnesota
The Chargers are notorious for their slow starts, while the Vikings just might be the biggest enigma in the NFL this year. We'll know more after this one.

Dallas (+5.5) over NY Jets
Look for the Cowboys to make a statement in the series premier of the Jason Garrett and Rob Ryan Show.

New England (-7) over Miami
Consider this my lock of the week.

Denver (-3) over Oakland
Not that I'll be staying up to watch this one or anything.

Disturbing Factoid of the Day

First things first, what a way to kick off the NFL season. I don't think anyone coulda seen Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees combining for 731 passing yards, much less the teams combining to score 76 points. Can you imagine if the finish of the game had been a playoff game or even the Super Bowl? It'd rank right up there with Kevin Dyson's "One yard short" in Super Bowl XXXIV or Adam Vinatieri's game-winning kick as time expired in XXXVI in terms of last plays of the game. Welcome to the big leagues, Mark Ingram.

Anyways, on to today's disturbing factoid: Eli Manning is now in possession of the most consecutive starts streak among active quarterbacks, at 103. How is this possible? Those long streaks are supposed to be reserved for elite quarterbacks like a Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or even a Brett Favre. And what's even more crazy about it all? The 103 consecutive starts are 6th all-time, behind the three I just mentioned, Ron Jaworski, and Joe Ferguson. Who's Joe Ferguson? I didn't know either until looking it up. I guess Eli is just the Joe Ferguson of this generation.

Tonight's Pick

Saints (+4.5) over Packers


New feature for the Experience. I'll be making weekly football picks, keeping track of 'em, and come late December, I'll be able to use it all to prove myself a gambling savant. I mean hey, I fell ass-backwards into $1,000 just two weeks ago; I've gotta ride that hot streak, right? Or this could blow up in my face and I'll be mocked worse than after the Hingham-Xaverian game. One or the other.

Anywho no need to go into extravagant detail on why I'm picking the Saints tonight; I did that in yesterday's previews. For what it's worth, the defending Super Bowl champs haven't lost a season opener since the Broncos lost their first game A.E. (After Elway) way back in 1999. And perhaps no defending champ has come back so strong since the 2004 Patriots brought back the exact same team plus Corey Dillon. So there's a decent chance I'm way off here. But in the words of Kevin Kelly, gotta hunch, bet a bunch.

I'll be making the rest of my picks for Week 1 at some point tomorrow.

2011 NFL Preview, Part II

Here's Part I if you missed it.

This afternoon, I separated the league into two halves, basically. The teams with no shot at winning the Super Bowl, and the teams with at least a puncher's chance at the crown. Within each half, there were some clear divisions as well. I ranked the top 16 teams, but I really only feel like 6 teams have a shot at being "Super" this year: the Packers, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Saints, and Falcons. And within the bottom 16 teams, I mentioned that there's definitely reasons for optimism in locales such as Carolina and Cleveland, and to an even greater extent Detroit and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, it's the good 'ol Bungles in Cincinatta, and the buzzards continue to circle the wagons in Buffalo. How will it all pan out ultimately? A little something like this:

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC Wild-cards: Chargers, Ravens

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
NFC Wild-cards: Falcons, Giants

AFC Wild-Card round: Ravens over Texans, Chiefs over Chargers
AFC Divisional round: Patriots over Ravens, Steelers over Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Steelers

NFC Wild-Card round: Eagles over Giants, Falcons over Rams
NFC Divisional round: Saints over Falcons, Eagles over Packers
NFC Championship Game: Saints over Eagles

Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots 20, Saints 17; MVP: Tom Brady

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Defensive Player of the Year: Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans
Comeback Player of the Year: Tiki Barber.....just kidding. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Eagles

Why the Patriots? Because I'm a Patriots fan? No doubt it makes it easier for me to pick them. But at the same time, why not? There's no doubt they're a better, more well-rounded team than last year's 14-2 squad who's season ended so painfully at the hands of the loathed Jets. So there's the whole "chip on the shoulder" factor. I alluded to that game as a doppelganger to the 2006 AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Colts a few months back. The Patriots lost to their bitter rivals on the biggest stage possible, and what happened next? They set the NFL roster move pages on fire, importing Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, among others. Although held back by the lockout this time, the Patriots reacted in similar fashion, bringing Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, and Brian Waters on board. Like in 2007, some moves will boom, others will bust. But you've got to at least applaud the effort of the Patriots to get back to the top of the NFL world, to the status of Super Bowl Champions where shockingly they haven't been since 2004.

I'm not saying they're gonna go set the world on fire like in 2007 and blow teams out 38-14 every week. And  I'm not even going to pretend there's a chance this team could redeem the '07 squad and finish 19-0. But when you look at the roster, top to bottom, the Patriots are loaded with depth everywhere you look. The Gronkowski/Hernandez combination is another year older, another year more lethal. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead have more help in the backfield coming in rookie Stevan Ridley. Nate Solder will help spell Matt Light at left tackle. Leigh Bodden returns to start alongside Devin McCourty at corner after missing all of '10. Can you think of a more formidable duo along the defensive line than Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth? Or at the very least, a bigger duo? Jerod Mayo led the league in tackles a year ago. And oh by the way, they have the reigning NFL MVP in Tom Brady.

So the Pats made some interesting moves in cutting pro bowler-Brandon Meriweather and Darius Butler (after just two seasons) last week. I have no problem with either move. Could Meriweather look like a combination between Ronnie Lott and Troy Polamalu at times? Absolutely. But those times were much fewer and farther between when than when he acted like a high school safety who just happened to hit really hard with his head. And Butler was in Belichick's dog house, and never coming out. Just ask Doug Gabriel how that worked out.

Bottom line, I'm expecting the Patriots to be just the latest Boston team to cue the duckboats some time in early February. And the Red Sox will most likely assume an all-too familiar role of "Boston team with the longest championship drought". Hey, four years is almost 21.5 times less than 86.

Here are some other predictions on what I expect around the NFL this season:

• Why the Saints in the NFC? Much like the Patriots, they've got to have a chip on their shoulders about the way last season ended. Losing to a sub-.500 team as 10.5 point favorites in the playoffs? That's how you defend your Super Bowl title? New Orleans is going to feel motivated they weren't just a one-hit wonder like "Dirty Water" by the Standells. Drew Brees is primed to cut back on his interceptions and approach 5,000 yards passing again. Mark Ingram looks like the real deal in the backfield so far, and it can't be understated what a good running game will do for a good passing game. The defense is still in good enough shape from the 2009 title run, and with Sean Payton pressing the buttons, you've got to like their chances.

• Sorry, Sanchize, the AFC is too deep this year. You and your coach can just schedule that fight you were talking about for halftime of your Christmas Eve date with the Giants, when your crosstown rival will officially eliminate you from post-season contention. 8-8 for the Jets this year. Eight and eight.

• I've been on record all off-season for saying that the Colts are not yet done. That with Peyton Manning in charge, they'll be a playoff team no matter what. I keep hearing the reports the past few weeks that Manning's gonna miss the season opener, blah blah blah, his streaks in jeopardy. Bullshit, I'm thinking. We're talking about Peyton Manning here. I feel the same way about Peyton Manning that Wes Mantooth feels about Ron Burgundy: "At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!" This guy isn't gonna miss a start.....then this morning happens. Boom. I'm way more bitter than I should be because Peyton's a member of the Avengers this year. Shouldn't I be happy that the Colts, pretty much the Patriots version of Michael Myers, are finally starting to fade away? No Manning, no chance. And he'll be out more than just one week. 

• Jamaal Charles will rush for over 1,700 yards, and add on another 700 receiving, making him a no-brainer for the league's Offensive Player of the Year. He's the real deal, as are the Chiefs, who weren't just a flash in the pan last year. They've been building that ship right over there at Arrowhead for the past few years now. That defense featuring Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, and Tyson Jackson is just scary. Oh I just remembered, Scott Pioli's building that team. No wonder they're coming along so well.

• Raiders, really? They finally get a semblance of "momentum" (by finishing .500 for the first time since 2002), go ahead and fire their head coach, let not only their best player, but one of the best defensive players in the whole damn league walk (Asomugha), and even though I'm nitpicking here, their only reliable passing-game target walk (Zach Miller). It's easy to nitpick if it's the Raiders though. Just win, baby!

• Speaking of Asomugha, he'll slide into Philly prettay, prettay well alongside Asante Samuel. Just as long as it's not the 4th quarter of a potentially historic Super Bowl clinching defensive stand. No, I'm not bitter. Didn't they get Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade?

• The Eagles will win a Super Bowl at some point during this Michael Vick/Nnamdi Asomugha era. By the time I graduate college, let's say. And yes I know that gives them some extra time.

• Vince Young might be the best backup QB in the NFL. Think about it. And isn't he Vick Lite anyways? The pairing works perfectly. Young will get a chance to start in the NFL again some day. And while we're still on Philly, Ronnie Brown is a great backup to LeSean McCoy, and the addition of "the other" Steve Smith (Giants) adds depth to an already electrical crop of receivers. I'd say losing the NFC Championship would still be meeting expectations this season.

• Patriot milestones: Ochocinco will catch over 70 passes, go for about 1,100 yards, and 6 or 7 TD's. Green-Ellis won't quite reach 1,000 yards again thanks to the added depth in the backfield, but will again surpass double-digits in the touchdown department. Albert Haynesworth: 6 sacks on D.

• Ochocinco's old team, the Cincinnati Bengals, will finish with the worst record in the NFL, 2-14. I'm aware their first five opponents are Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.

• The Patriots will go 14-2 again, posting the top record in the league.

• We haven't seen the last of Randy Moss OR Terrell Owens. You forgot about the second one, didn't ya?

• Blaine Gabbert was probably going to start at some point this season for Jacksonville anyways. Thanks to Luke McCown being named starter, that time is much more likely to be in October than in December. Way to go, Del Rio. I was ready to put Jacksonville in my "top half" rankings and leave out Dallas instead. Thanks a lot.

• First coach fired: I mean, shouldn't it be Marvin Lewis? What exactly has he done to earn the right to keep coaching in the NFL? Since 2003, (Lewis's first on the job), the Bengals have gone 60-67-1, including 0-2 in the post-season. Sure, the Bengals have had only two terrible seasons under Lewis (2008 and 2010, 4-11-1 and 4-12 respectively) but c'mon, when is being average every year enough? Since it won't be Lewis, might as well go with Tony Sparano down in South Florida with the Dolphins. Although if the Chargers get off to a slow start, here's looking at you, Norv.

• Aaron Rodgers will lead the league in both passing yardage (4,812) and touchdown passes (37).

• Jamaal Charles will lead the league in rushing yards (1,768).

• Michael Turner will lead the league in rushing touchdowns (15).

• Greg Jennings will lead the league in receiving yardage (1,515).

• Antonio Gates will lead the league in receiving touchdowns (13).

• Cam Newton will throw more touchdown passes than interceptions, and the Panthers will be a sneaky-good 5-11. The NFC South is the toughest division in football, no questions asked. I wouldn't want to play the Panthers in Week 17 with something on the line.

Alright, I've rambled long enough. It's great to be back on the blogging scene, but more importantly, it's great to have NFL football less than 24 hours away. Enjoy!

2011 NFL Preview, Part I

There was never any doubt, was there? That the whole lockout thing wouldn't get resolved? Sure, it took a little longer than most expected, but at the end of the day we're still ready for Thursday night's kickoff between the Saints and Packers without skipping a beat. And quite frankly, that's all that really matters.

Of course, due to the lockout, there was essentially no off-season and mega-compressed training camps. A myriad of roster moves that happened so fast Usain Bolt's false start wouldn't even have been noticed. Madden '12 was released about 20 days later than usual, which especially sucked for people like myself stranded in Hingham long after the calendar turned to September.

Now that most of the dust has settled, it seems as though people finally have a grasp on which way the winds will blow this fall and winter. But questions linger. Can the Packers repeat? Just how good are the Eagles? For real, how bad is Peyton Manning's neck? Can Rex Ryan talk the talk while actually walking the walk? Are the Patriots primed for a 2007-like season (with a happier ending?) And many more.

I'll start by eliminating the following teams from any sort of discussion involving the playoffs: Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Carolina, San Francisco, and Arizona. The degrees to which these teams will suffer varies, as there's definitely reason for optimism in Cleveland and Carolina. But that's a conversation for 2012. I'd include Seattle on this list, but.....it's the NFC West, where Tarvaris Jackson is actually not the worst starting quarterback in the division. Think down by San Francisco Bay.

There's a few other teams clearly going nowhere fast, namely Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. But there's just enough talent in those locales which makes you ponder, "you know, I could totally see them sneaking into a wild-card spot at 9-7". The wonders of having Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson, respectively.

Detroit and Tampa Bay are perhaps two of the most intriguing teams in the league, but based off the strengths of their respective divisions, it's hard to see a playoff birth forthcoming. But crazier things have happened.

Including Seattle, I just eliminated half the league from the Super Bowl debate. How does the top half of the league stack up? It's everyone's favorite game: Power Rankings.

16. Dallas Cowboys 
Last season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)


For whatever reason, I can't write off dem Cowboys. When healthy, Tony Romo puts up numbers. Plain and simple. While it's true the Cowboys went 5-5 without Romo, compared to 1-5 in games started by him, would you buy Dallas as a playoff team with Jon Kitna under center? Didn't think so. The individual talent still in Dallas is too much to write them off completely. For now, anyways.

15. St. Lous Rams
Last season: 7-9 (missed playoffs)


Some nice additions on the defensive side of the ball in Ben Leber, Quintin Mikell, and rookie Robert Quinn, combined with the maturation of Sam Bradford, make the Rams the team to beat in the NFC's Best West. Hey, the Seahawks won a playoff game as division champs last year. It's not quite back to the Greatest Show on Turf days yet, but that 6-42 stretch from 2007-2009 is a thing of the past.

14. Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5 (won NFC North; lost in NFC Championship)


The microscope on Jay Cutler has never been larger due to the NFC title game fiasco with his knee, and the ongoing Lance Briggs saga is an unwelcome addition. Still can't figure out why they let go of tight end Greg Olsen, either. Plenty of playmakers remain of defense to keep Da Bears in da hunt, however.

13. New York Giants
Last season: 10-6 (missed playoffs)


It's easy to forget, the Packers Matt Dodged-a bullet with DeSean Jackson's punt return giving the Packers control of their own fate in the NFC wild-card race, leaving the Giants out in the cold. The G-Men will return to the post-season if Eli Manning cuts back on his interceptions (a league-leading 25 last year). If not, it'll be another long, cold January for Big Blue.

12. Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC South; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)


Turning back the clocks to 2008, let's remember when a 7th-round draft pick who had never started a collegiate football game by the name of Matt Cassel led the Patriots to an 11-5 record despite the loss of three-time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady. Not that I'm trying to diminish Brady's value here, but....these Colts are not even in the same stratosphere as those Patriots. Colts President Bill Polian has said within the past hour that Peyton Manning won't play Week 1. If Manning can get back on the field and play at a level he's accustomed to soon, don't count the Colts out just yet. If not....well, the Colts do still get to host the Super Bowl. There's just zero chance they'll be playing in it sans Peyton.

11. San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7 (missed playoffs)


Statistically speaking, boasted both the league's top offense and defense a season ago. Finished 5th in point differential behind the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and Steelers. That's right, the two no. 1 seeds in the playoffs and the Super Bowl participants. What the hell went wrong? Did special teams really cause the Chargers to miss the playoffs entirely? If the Chargers miss the playoffs again, Norv Turner might as well go replace Ron Burgundy and announce, "Go f*** yourself, San Diego".

10. Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC West; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)


A young team on the rise loaded with weapons at the skill positions on offense as well as all over the defense. Will duke it out with the Chargers well into December for the AFC West crown.

9. New York Jets
Last Season: 11-5 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Championship)


I've said it before, and I'll say it again: these Jets will never win a Super Bowl with Mark Sanchez under center. It's that simple. There's some other very intriguing pieces on offense, such as the Plaxico Burress experiment, and the defense can still go pound for pound with anyone. But unless Sanchez undergoes a serious transformation, the Jets might not even be the most relevant sports team named "Jets" anymore. Have you seen those new Winnipeg jerseys? Fresh as hell.

8. Houston Texans
Last Season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)


Call me crazy, but my reasoning for this being the season Houston finally breaks through is simple: the Colts have never been more vulnerable. There's elite playmakers on both sides of the ball, and it's going to be fun watching Mario Williams move into an outside linebacker role. The Texans also patched up the secondary (a little) by inking Jonathan Joseph. Even if Arian Foster falls back to Earth, the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection is right up there with the leagues strongest connections.


7. Baltimore Ravens
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Divisional round)


As long as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata are still on the defensive side of the ball, there's no reason the Ravens won't be a playoff team. Losing Derrick Mason and Todd Heap offensively is puzzling, but Lee Evans should slide in nicely next to Anquan Boldin. Can Joe Flacco join the NFL's elite?

6. Atlanta Falcons
Last Season: 13-3 (won NFC South; lost in NFC Divisional round)


This is the portion of the rankings where things get real serious. I'm not saying any team behind the Falcons can't win the Super Bowl, I'm just saying this is where the Super Six begins. Ray Edwards was a great addition on the defensive side of the ball, and early returns on Julio Jones look promising. It will be an epic battle for the NFC South with....

5. New Orleans Saints
Last Season: 11-5 (won NFC wild-card; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)


I'm really buying into the Saints this year. Drew Brees can't possibly throw 22 interceptions again, can he? Especially with a re-loaded running game to ease the some of the pressures, with Heisman winner Mark Ingram and former LaDanian Tomlinson-understudy Darren Sproles joining the mix. The defense is still a solid, well-rounded unit with no weaknesses. And for my money, I'd say Sean Payton is the best coach in the NFL without the initials "BB".

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC North; lost Super Bowl XLV)


Just forget for a second that Ben Roethlisberger rapes chicks. That Rashard Mendenhall (or as I call him, Rashard bin Ladenhall) is a terrorist sympathizer. That James Harrison said he wouldn't piss on Roger Goodell if he was on fire. That Hines Ward got a DUI over the off-season......Okay, it's very uncharacteristic for a Steelers team to have so many head cases. Yet I haven't mentioned some other guys who can play yet, such as Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Casey Hampton, James Farrior.....that's still the best defense in the NFL, bar none. Jets cast-off Jerricho Cotchery is a nice addition for Big Ben on offense, too.

3. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Season: 10-6 (won NFC East; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)


First things first: stop with the Miami Heat comparisons. Just stop. All they did was sign Nnamdi Asomugha. And while that is an unbelievable move that elevates the Eagles from pseudo contender to legit contender, it's not as though Philly imported 60% of their starting lineup like the LeBron's did (I swear, that will be the one and only mention of LeBron in today's preview. Promise). Having said that, if Mike Vick can stay healthy, this offense could produce a bigger explosion than Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined.

2. New England Patriots 
Last season: 14-2 (won AFC East; lost in AFC Divisional round)


People have been waiting for the demise of the Patriots for some time now. And hey, that's fair. It's easy to envy the best team of the past decade. Facts are facts, however, and the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since knocking off the Chargers in the 2007 AFC Championship Game. So that's not to say that the pressures on, but when you import Chad Ochocinco to an offense already featuring the league's reigning MVP in Tom Brady, and Albert Haynesworth comes aboard as the biggest risk/reward move of the Belichick era, it's hard not to get excited about a team that did go 14-2 last year, after all. Safe to say it's still personal between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick, too.

1. Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6 (Won Super Bowl XLV)


And the champs open up on top. Only seems right. And it gets even scarier when you consider they won the Lombardi Trophy a year ago without their top running back (Ryan Grant) or top tight end (Jermichael Finley), and withstood injuries to both Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the big game itself. Aaron Rodgers has laid his claim to the elite quarterback brotherhood, and has earned a spot on a proverbial Mount Rushmore with Brady, Manning, and Brees. Of course, all questions about the Packers will center around one topic: Can they repeat? Check back later for Part II for the 2011 NFL season preview.

Summer Vacation is Over

And the school year is just beginning. So is the NFL season, and even though the baseball pennant races are lagging, there's still a great deal of intrigue what will actually happen once October begins. 

As if those three headlines weren't enough, here's some more big news: the Experience is back. Full time. I'm not half-assing it like I did over the first part of the summer, where I tried my hardest to deliver high quality blogs but just couldn't deliver. Hey, it was summertime. Time to relax and do absolutely nothing. I mean sure that's what I do all 12 months of the year, but it's taken up a notch or ten from that last final in May to the first class of September. And I just left my first class of the semester, a joke class "Animal Science 101" with about 850 people in it, and it's a renowned GPA booster. So I'm back in the swing of things.

My apologies again to the die-hards who were deprived of the Experience over the past month-plus. We're back, bigger and better than ever. Later on today I'll be delivering the 'ol NFL preview, complete with my Super Bowl pick, award winners, and other various thoughts on the upcoming season. We'll see ya then.