Of course, due to the lockout, there was essentially no off-season and mega-compressed training camps. A myriad of roster moves that happened so fast Usain Bolt's false start wouldn't even have been noticed. Madden '12 was released about 20 days later than usual, which especially sucked for people like myself stranded in Hingham long after the calendar turned to September.
Now that most of the dust has settled, it seems as though people finally have a grasp on which way the winds will blow this fall and winter. But questions linger. Can the Packers repeat? Just how good are the Eagles? For real, how bad is Peyton Manning's neck? Can Rex Ryan talk the talk while actually walking the walk? Are the Patriots primed for a 2007-like season (with a happier ending?) And many more.
I'll start by eliminating the following teams from any sort of discussion involving the playoffs: Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Carolina, San Francisco, and Arizona. The degrees to which these teams will suffer varies, as there's definitely reason for optimism in Cleveland and Carolina. But that's a conversation for 2012. I'd include Seattle on this list, but.....it's the NFC West, where Tarvaris Jackson is actually not the worst starting quarterback in the division. Think down by San Francisco Bay.
There's a few other teams clearly going nowhere fast, namely Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. But there's just enough talent in those locales which makes you ponder, "you know, I could totally see them sneaking into a wild-card spot at 9-7". The wonders of having Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson, respectively.
Detroit and Tampa Bay are perhaps two of the most intriguing teams in the league, but based off the strengths of their respective divisions, it's hard to see a playoff birth forthcoming. But crazier things have happened.
Including Seattle, I just eliminated half the league from the Super Bowl debate. How does the top half of the league stack up? It's everyone's favorite game: Power Rankings.
16. Dallas Cowboys
Last season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)
For whatever reason, I can't write off dem Cowboys. When healthy, Tony Romo puts up numbers. Plain and simple. While it's true the Cowboys went 5-5 without Romo, compared to 1-5 in games started by him, would you buy Dallas as a playoff team with Jon Kitna under center? Didn't think so. The individual talent still in Dallas is too much to write them off completely. For now, anyways.
15. St. Lous Rams
Last season: 7-9 (missed playoffs)
Some nice additions on the defensive side of the ball in Ben Leber, Quintin Mikell, and rookie Robert Quinn, combined with the maturation of Sam Bradford, make the Rams the team to beat in the NFC's
14. Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5 (won NFC North; lost in NFC Championship)
The microscope on Jay Cutler has never been larger due to the NFC title game fiasco with his knee, and the ongoing Lance Briggs saga is an unwelcome addition. Still can't figure out why they let go of tight end Greg Olsen, either. Plenty of playmakers remain of defense to keep Da Bears in da hunt, however.
13. New York Giants
Last season: 10-6 (missed playoffs)
It's easy to forget, the Packers Matt Dodged-a bullet with DeSean Jackson's punt return giving the Packers control of their own fate in the NFC wild-card race, leaving the Giants out in the cold. The G-Men will return to the post-season if Eli Manning cuts back on his interceptions (a league-leading 25 last year). If not, it'll be another long, cold January for Big Blue.
12. Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC South; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)
Turning back the clocks to 2008, let's remember when a 7th-round draft pick who had never started a collegiate football game by the name of Matt Cassel led the Patriots to an 11-5 record despite the loss of three-time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady. Not that I'm trying to diminish Brady's value here, but....these Colts are not even in the same stratosphere as those Patriots. Colts President Bill Polian has said within the past hour that Peyton Manning won't play Week 1. If Manning can get back on the field and play at a level he's accustomed to soon, don't count the Colts out just yet. If not....well, the Colts do still get to host the Super Bowl. There's just zero chance they'll be playing in it sans Peyton.
11. San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7 (missed playoffs)
Statistically speaking, boasted both the league's top offense and defense a season ago. Finished 5th in point differential behind the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and Steelers. That's right, the two no. 1 seeds in the playoffs and the Super Bowl participants. What the hell went wrong? Did special teams really cause the Chargers to miss the playoffs entirely? If the Chargers miss the playoffs again, Norv Turner might as well go replace Ron Burgundy and announce, "Go f*** yourself, San Diego".
10. Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC West; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)
A young team on the rise loaded with weapons at the skill positions on offense as well as all over the defense. Will duke it out with the Chargers well into December for the AFC West crown.
9. New York Jets
Last Season: 11-5 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Championship)
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: these Jets will never win a Super Bowl with Mark Sanchez under center. It's that simple. There's some other very intriguing pieces on offense, such as the Plaxico Burress experiment, and the defense can still go pound for pound with anyone. But unless Sanchez undergoes a serious transformation, the Jets might not even be the most relevant sports team named "Jets" anymore. Have you seen those new Winnipeg jerseys? Fresh as hell.
8. Houston Texans
Last Season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)
Call me crazy, but my reasoning for this being the season Houston finally breaks through is simple: the Colts have never been more vulnerable. There's elite playmakers on both sides of the ball, and it's going to be fun watching Mario Williams move into an outside linebacker role. The Texans also patched up the secondary (a little) by inking Jonathan Joseph. Even if Arian Foster falls back to Earth, the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection is right up there with the leagues strongest connections.
7. Baltimore Ravens
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Divisional round)
As long as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata are still on the defensive side of the ball, there's no reason the Ravens won't be a playoff team. Losing Derrick Mason and Todd Heap offensively is puzzling, but Lee Evans should slide in nicely next to Anquan Boldin. Can Joe Flacco join the NFL's elite?
6. Atlanta Falcons
Last Season: 13-3 (won NFC South; lost in NFC Divisional round)
This is the portion of the rankings where things get real serious. I'm not saying any team behind the Falcons can't win the Super Bowl, I'm just saying this is where the Super Six begins. Ray Edwards was a great addition on the defensive side of the ball, and early returns on Julio Jones look promising. It will be an epic battle for the NFC South with....
5. New Orleans Saints
Last Season: 11-5 (won NFC wild-card; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)
I'm really buying into the Saints this year. Drew Brees can't possibly throw 22 interceptions again, can he? Especially with a re-loaded running game to ease the some of the pressures, with Heisman winner Mark Ingram and former LaDanian Tomlinson-understudy Darren Sproles joining the mix. The defense is still a solid, well-rounded unit with no weaknesses. And for my money, I'd say Sean Payton is the best coach in the NFL without the initials "BB".
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC North; lost Super Bowl XLV)
Just forget for a second that Ben Roethlisberger rapes chicks. That Rashard Mendenhall (or as I call him, Rashard bin Ladenhall) is a terrorist sympathizer. That James Harrison said he wouldn't piss on Roger Goodell if he was on fire. That Hines Ward got a DUI over the off-season......Okay, it's very uncharacteristic for a Steelers team to have so many head cases. Yet I haven't mentioned some other guys who can play yet, such as Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Casey Hampton, James Farrior.....that's still the best defense in the NFL, bar none. Jets cast-off Jerricho Cotchery is a nice addition for Big Ben on offense, too.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Season: 10-6 (won NFC East; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)
First things first: stop with the Miami Heat comparisons. Just stop. All they did was sign Nnamdi Asomugha. And while that is an unbelievable move that elevates the Eagles from pseudo contender to legit contender, it's not as though Philly imported 60% of their starting lineup like the LeBron's did (I swear, that will be the one and only mention of LeBron in today's preview. Promise). Having said that, if Mike Vick can stay healthy, this offense could produce a bigger explosion than Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined.
2. New England Patriots
Last season: 14-2 (won AFC East; lost in AFC Divisional round)
People have been waiting for the demise of the Patriots for some time now. And hey, that's fair. It's easy to envy the best team of the past decade. Facts are facts, however, and the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since knocking off the Chargers in the 2007 AFC Championship Game. So that's not to say that the pressures on, but when you import Chad Ochocinco to an offense already featuring the league's reigning MVP in Tom Brady, and Albert Haynesworth comes aboard as the biggest risk/reward move of the Belichick era, it's hard not to get excited about a team that did go 14-2 last year, after all. Safe to say it's still personal between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick, too.
1. Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6 (Won Super Bowl XLV)
And the champs open up on top. Only seems right. And it gets even scarier when you consider they won the Lombardi Trophy a year ago without their top running back (Ryan Grant) or top tight end (Jermichael Finley), and withstood injuries to both Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the big game itself. Aaron Rodgers has laid his claim to the elite quarterback brotherhood, and has earned a spot on a proverbial Mount Rushmore with Brady, Manning, and Brees. Of course, all questions about the Packers will center around one topic: Can they repeat? Check back later for Part II for the 2011 NFL season preview.
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