For every megastar that's walked through Boston the past decade--and there've been plenty of them--Tim Thomas seemed to be the first and only one without any baggage. Manny Ramirez shoved elderly traveling secretaries to the ground. David Ortiz pulled a hissy-fit when he got an RBI taken away from him. Tom Brady endorsed Uggs and grew long hair. Randy Moss didn't run his routes. Kevin Garnett called Charlie Villanueva a cancer patient. The list goes on and on, and sure it's nitpicking to an extent, of issues with these star athletes in Titletown. But you can't tell the entire stories of these figures without the information presented.
And until yesterday, there was absolutely positively nothing negative to be said for the two-time Vezina-winning netminder. A class act in the purest of pure forms. I guess it's valid what they say that if it seems too good to be true, than it probably is. Tim Thomas opted not to go to the White House yesterday with his teammates, as the Bruins were honored as Stanley Cup Champions by President Obama. Because he feels as though the federal government has grown out of control. And hey, there's some truth to that statement. But this wasn't a trip about endorsing Obama's candidacy for the election later this year. This was meant solely as a victory trip, yet another chance for the Bruins to rock their status as the Champs. Every team in every sport has been doing it for who knows how long now, and will continue to do so. Timmy isn't the first to say no to the event, but it's too bad he had to rain on the parade. Because at the end of the day, while it really isn't that big of a deal, you won't be able to write the Tim Thomas story without mentioning his day off.
No matter what happens today, there's going to be an intriguing story line heading into Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis two weeks from today. Whether it's the Harbaugh Bowl, Part II, or Tom Brady vs. his childhood team, Baltimore winning a Super Bowl on the Colts' homefield, or even Ravens-Giants in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV, there'll be all kinds of ways to slice and dice the days leading up to the big game on February 5.
But it's pretty clear that one potential match-up has more cache than any of the others. Combined.
I'm not really sure how New Yorkers feel about it, but I think I can speak for everyone in the greater New England area, and perhaps even nationwide outside of the Big Apple, that a rematch of Super Bowl XLII is what the people want.
A chance for Tom Brady to add another ring to his collection all these years later? Almost Derek Jeter-esque, winning all those rings early in his career, then adding another to further cement his legacy 9 years later (it'll be 7 for Brady if this is indeed the year). A chance to avenge the most scarring loss of his career, a loss that denied his claim to fame as the first and only quarterback of a 19-0 team? A chance to do it in Indianapolis, the home of Brady's foil, Peyton Manning? Brady's had some scarring losses in Indy in his career as well (2006 AFCCG and the infamous "4th and 2" game from '09). A chance to prove that the Patriots can win a Super Bowl without the help of secret cameras? Just kidding about that last one.
From Eli Manning's perspective, just as much is at stake. A chance to go the home field of his older brother, and win a championship in front of him? A chance to take a 2-1 lead on Peyton in Super Bowl rings? A chance to have more rings than guys named Favre or Brees, and as many as guys named Roethlisberger or Elway? A chance to finally escape the shadow of being Peyton's younger brother? I've always said that if Eli's last name with "Smith" or "Johnson", he'd receive far more credit than he currently gets. He can't escape the greatness that is his own last name. It's just like when Jesse brings home a good report card, it can't quite mount up to the high marks I pull in all the time.
Now, just because a Patriots-Giants Super Bowl is the most intriguing match-up, does it necessarily mean it's the most realistic? I mean the symmetry is there. One of my favorite bands (Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers) performed at Super Bowl XLII, a Patriots loss. One of my least favorite bands (Madonna) is performing at Super Bowl XLVI. Shouldn't that mean a Patriots win? I'll gladly take a forgettable halftime show over a forgettable game. On with the Championship Sunday Picks:
Last Week: 1-3 Playoffs: 4-4
Home team in CAPS
PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens
All sorts of red flags against the Ravens here. I'm optimistic about the Patriots here, if not downright confident. Joe Flacco has already beaten Tom Brady once in the post-season. Can he really be the only player in NFL history with two head-to-head wins over TB12 in January? And I'm not saying Joe Flacco is quite as atrocious as Mark Sanchez, but Brady losing in the post-season to mediocre QB's at home back-to-back seasons? Just don't see it.
Everyone likes to talk about how bad the Patriots defense is. It's by no means an elite unit, particularly against the pass. Statistically speaking, it's right in the middle of the road against the run (17th out of 32 in the regular season, at 117.1 yards per game). One key to success for the Pats today is simple: hold Rice under 100 yards. All four of Baltimore's losses came when he rushed for less than the century mark.
And when it comes to Flacco, he had only four games all season where he threw for more than 300 yards, and the most recent was way back on November 6. His arm isn't what the Patriots need to worry about today.
I think the most important factor of today's game, simply put, is this: the Ravens themselves don't trust Joe Flacco. At least not the defense. By now, you've all heard Ed Reed's comments from earlier in the week about how Flacco was "rattled" against Houston a week ago. Leading to some sort of conversation between Reed and Flacco, which has only fueled more speculation. Flacco didn't exactly come out and say that it was "no big deal" what Reed had said to the media. In a game of this magnitude, I'm riding the quarterback who's been there, done that, and most certainly doesn't have confidence issues.
Patriots 27, Ravens 17
Giants (+2) over 49ERS
I'm not taking anything away from Alex Smith and the 49ers here. I've been making fun of him all season long, even as recently as last week, about having the chance to bet against Alex Smith in the post-season. I'm done with that. Smith will never be Joe Montana or Steve Young in Niners lore, but he doesn't have to settle for Tim Rattay or Jim Druckenmiller either. Not after last weeks heroics. Smith's turnaround into a competent quarterback has been absolutely mesmerizing to watch during his 7th season in the league. Even moreso by the fact they've all taken place in the Bay Area. It's almost like watching Kwame Brown or Darko Milicic still kicking around in the NBA, only you realize that wait a second, Smith isn't a bust after all. The 49ers are where they are thanks to Patrick Willis and the defense, make no mistake about it, but the triumvirate of Smith, Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis are no slouches themselves.
So why the Giants here? Especially after the Niners have already won as an underdog at home? I don't think the world is quite ready for "Alex Smith" and "Super Bowl" in the same sentence. I mean all of the praise I just laid upon Smith. No question about it. I still don't think he's good enough to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback. And it's very true that the same things could have been said about Eli Manning to a degree not too far back, but what's standing in Smith's way is a vastly improved version of Eli. That Giants defensive front is every bit as foreboding as it was during the 2007 Super Bowl run, just a tad more than the Saints D threw at Smith a week ago. And by a tad I mean infinitely. We're gonna be partyin' like it's Super Bowl XLII all over again.
Bonus factoid: while not only Eli Manning and Alex Smith are former no. 1 overall picks playing in this game, so too is David Carr, the no. 1 pick of the Texans back in 2002. Now THAT resembles Darko still kickin' it.
I started off last weekend 3-0, correctly calling the Texans, Saints, and Giants wins respectively. Heading into the late Sunday game, Broncos vs. Steelers, I figured I had a very good shot to finish off the weekend with a perfect record, as I felt most confident in my pick of the Steelers putting an end to TebowMania. As the game progressed, and it became clear that the Broncos had a chance not only to cover the spread, but to win outright, I began rooting for the latter result. I felt much more confident with the Broncos coming to Foxboro than the Steelers, as the Patriots looked their very worst this season against Pittsburgh, the one of their three losses they truly would have had no business winning. And the Patriots looked at perhaps their very best against the Broncos in their December meeting.
Now listen, I'm by no means a religious person. I don't read the Bible, I don't read the Torah, and I sure as hell don't read the Koran. But if you aren't straight up petrified by all of this "316" stuff with Tebow, I don't know what to tell you. Roethlisberger threw his interception on 3rd and 16? The game drew a 31.6 rating from CBS? Tebow threw for 316 yards? There was a cloud shaped like a halo above Mile High, which also happens to be the highest elevated stadium in the NFL, and therefore the closest to heaven? The NFL's "virgin" voyage of the new playoff rules lasts just 11 seconds on a Tebow pass? Eerie. Straight up eerie. I can throw a better spiral than Tebow and I'm still shaking.
Of course, you wouldn't know it, but there's actually 3 other games this weekend. And some high quality games might I add. As Adam Schefter tweeted yesterday, there are 4 QB's in the divisional round with Super Bowl MVP's for the first time ever (Brady, E. Manning, Rodgers, Brees). Playoff football is back in San Francisco for the first time since the Jeff Garcia-Terrell Owens hookup (pun totally intended). The Packers, who are one lousy game away from being 16-0, face off against a team that was a f*cking helment catch away from not preventing a team from going 19-0 not along ago. I can't come up with anything super-catchy for Ravens-Texans, but dammit....it should still be a good game. And no I can't go 11-0, but 10-1 still sounds pretty great right?
Last Week: 3-1 Playoffs: 3-1
Home team in CAPS
Saints (-3.5) over 49ERS
There's lots of logic that should point me in the other direction for this one. The Saints averaged 41 points per game at home, but just 27 per on the road. The 49ers were fourth overall in defense, and second in scoring defense (14.3, just behind the Steelers at 14.2). The Saints lost on the road against a far inferior NFC West opponent last January (Seattle).
There's also lots of logic that points me in the direction I'm taking. Every year at least one home team loses in the divisional round coming off of a bye. The Patriots and Falcons last year being our most recent examples. Aren't the Saints the best of the four road teams this weekend? I mean they're the only ones favored, after all. Secondly, I know all about the Saints home/away splits. Brees and the Saints were still 5-3 on the road, and are no doubt a completely different team now than the team that unfathomably lost to St. Louis and Tampa Bay on the road earlier in the season. Who's hotter than Brees under center right now? Doesn't it feel like he threw for 6,000 yards this season? And perhaps the most logical reason of all to pick against the 49ers? It's Alex Smith! In the playoffs! Who knew this day would ever come? We may never get a chance to bet against Alex Smith in the playoffs again, so there's on way I'm blowing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Saints 28, 49ers 20
PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Broncos
Without getting into semantics, I'll make this one quick: Tom Brady has lost three playoff games in a row, and I don't care who's standing in front of him, he's not about to lose a fourth. Even if it is Jesus blocking his path. That 316 stuff? Maybe it just means Tebow throws 3 interceptions on 16 passing attempts today.
Patriots 35, Broncos 17
RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
The Texans have officially entered the "just happy to be here" phase of the post-season. Getting there for the first time was great, and actually winning a game? Even better. There's still plenty of hope for the future in Houston, with Matt Schaub, Mario Williams, and a 100% Andre Johnson set to return next year. On top of a team that was second in rushing and first in total defense.
It's just that much like with the 49ers, I'm having a hard time taking the quarterback seriously. And to his credit, TJ Yates has done a more than passable job since taking over for the injured Schaub and Matt Leinart in Week 12. But he hasn't faced a challenge such as the Ravens during the stretch. This could be the last stand for Ray Lewis. Ed Reed is up there in age too. Don't forget about Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. The Ravens defense seemingly gets better with age, as this is the third time in the last four seasons the unit has ranked in the top 3 in the league (last year they still finished 10th). As long as Joe Flacco doesn't get in the way, the Ravens cruise here.
Ravens 24, Texans 10
PACKERS (-7.5) over Giants
All we keep hearing about is how the Giants are primed for another run, just like in 2007. How they're using the exact same formula this season as they did that season, when they wound up winning the Super Bowl. I swear this isn't out of bitterness, but people realize they were one f*cking helmet catch away from merely being the runners-up that season? That all this "formula" talk is based off one catch made by a career special-teamer who never caught a pass in the NFL again?
And to be fair, Eli Manning is exponentially more effective now than he was back in 2007. You can also point out that Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing for the first time since December 25; rust could most definitely be a factor. But it warrants mentioning that, since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule, there have been 5 instances of teams winning 15 or more regular season games (1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1998 Vikings, 2004 Steelers, 2007 Patriots). All 5 won at least won playoff game. These Packers can fling the ball around right up there with those '98 Vikes and '07 Pats. And once again, I know that this Giants "formula" is what knocked off the Patriots ultimately that year. Not buying it this time around. Brett Favre ain't walking through that door to throw a pick in overtime.
Finally. Playoffs? You kidding me? Already? Not to mention Bruins-Canucks this afternoon as the warmup?
Anyways, check out my NFL pre-season predictions. Of the 12 playoff teams I predicted to play into January, 8 will indeed play on. My Super Bowl pick (Patriots vs. Saints) is still very much in play. The only team I predicted to make the playoffs that and failed to do so in an embarrassing fashion would be the Rams, who stumbled to 2-14, taking a major step backwards in their progress from 2010. The Eagles, the lone Final 4 team I have missing from the post-season, at least made a respectable run in December to almost come within range of the playoffs. I did alright in terms of all that stuff.
Of course, I finished 5 games below .500 for my weekly picks. 119-124-13. I got down big early and it's just so hard to come back against the spread in this game. I did post back-to-back respectable weeks to end the season (9-7, 8-7-1), but all for naught.
Fortunately, the playoffs are a shot at redemption. 11 total games. I win 8 of them, I can catch the .500 mark. Easier said than done. But it all starts today in a wild-card weekend with no shortage of intrigue. I'm going 11-0 this post-season. And in terms of who I like for the Super Bow? I mean why not stick to my pre-season pick of Pats over Saints? Done and done.
TEXANS (-4) over Bengals
Neither team comes into this one exactly lighting the world on fire. The Bengals went 3-5 in the second half after starting the season 6-2, while the Texans have lost their last three games. Within both cold streaks, there are some troubling trends. The Bengals three wins, for example, were against the Browns, Rams, and Seahawks (combined record: 13-35). The Texans, while they did clinch the AFC South prior to the losing streak, have lost to a string of non-playoff teams, low-lighted by a loss to the Colts in Week 16.
Dig deeper, and notice that both teams are starting rookie QB's. Andy Dalton has been superb for the Bengals, no question, and if not for Cam Newton, would be a shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans, however, had no plans of relying on a rookie QB at all this season, much less in their first playoff game in franchise history. To make matters worse, said quarterback, TJ Yates, is a little banged up, and his current backup? Jake Delhomme. You may remember Delhomme's last post-season game for the Panthers in the 2008 Divisional Round: 17-34, 205 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT in a 33-13 home loss to eventual NFC Champ Arizona.
So seemingly, the scales tip in the Bengals favor there. Not so fast. Houston, under Wade Phillips, has gone from a laughingstock defensively, to not just an improved unit, but the number 2 ranked defense in the entire NFL. The Texans also boast the number 2 ranked rushing attack in the NFL, with perhaps no better backfield duo than Arian Foster and Ben Tate right now.
For what it's worth, the Texans last win was against the Bengals on December 11. Throw in the fact that it's the first time Houston has hosted a playoff game since the days of Warren Moon and the Oilers, I think there's a legitimate homefield advantage in play for the Texans. The Bengals will remain winless in January since 1991
Houston 28, Cincinnati 17
SAINTS (-10.5) over Lions
Any time you have a duel looming between two 5,000 yard passers, you know you're in for a treat. It doesn't take an NFL historian to figure out that this is the first ever playoff game where the opposing quarterbacks have combined for more than 10,000 yards passing in the regular season. The scariest part is that it may not be the only game of it's kind this post-season, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves.
The Saints haven't lost at home all season, and haven't lost a game overall since October 30 (one of their two "WTF?" losses this season, to St. Louis. The other being Tampa Bay). In their six games since their bye week, they have topped 40 points four times. They scored "only" 31 points against the Lions in a Sunday night showdown in Week 13, and it definitely warrants mentioning that Ndamukong Suh sat that one out with a case of the suspensionitis.
Neither team can run the ball worth a damn, making that a wash. Calvin Johnson is the best receiver on either team, but you'd have to say the next six spots go to the Saints (and that includes TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles). The Saints have "been there, done that". The Lions are three years removed from going 0-16. It was a season of great progress in Detroit, and they are definitely positioned to be contenders for years to come, but no one, and I mean no one is hotter than Drew Brees right now. This isn't last year's Saints team that failed in the wild-card round. It's too bad for the Lions, who definitely could have beat the Giants had they not lost to Green Bay last week.
New Orleans 38, Detroit 24
GIANTS (-3) over Falcons
Two teams most definitely guilty of identity fraud. Who are these guys? Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback or not? Can you win a playoff game with Matt Ryan? The up-and-down play of each quarterback has dictated the up-and-down seasons both teams have had, the strange routes to the post-season. The Giants at one point lost 4 in a row before sweeping the Cowboys to take control of the NFC East, having it of course come right down to Week 17. The Falcons last three games have defined them perfectly: a 45-16 shellacking at the hands of the Saints, sandwiched between Atlanta dishing out pain on two of the pathetic Florida teams (Jacksonville, Tampa), putting up 41 and 45 points, respectively.
What this one comes down to, for me anyways, is that like the Saints, the Giants have a "been there, done that" trait to rely on. We all remember their run through Super Bowl XLII. Eli Manning, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora, who all played an integral part of ending the 19-0 dreams of the Patriots, are three of the more important players still on the roster. Getting after the passer and throwing the ball will certainly go a long way in the Giants catching fire and going on another sort of magical run.
What this game may come down to is the running game. On paper, the tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw sounds pretty good. But uh....they're kind of dead last in the NFL in rushing. This should be a major red flag, but at the end of the day, they're playing this one in the Meadowlands, not in the Georgia Dome. I have faith that Eli can make plays through the air with Victor Cruz and Co. to win this one and not have to rely heavily on the running game. I'm not saying the Giants are about to go on another 2007 type run, but crazier things have happened. Like that 2007 run.
Giants 24, Falcons 20
Steelers (-8.5) over BRONCOS
I know that Rashard bin Ladenhall isn't running the ball. I know that Ryan Clark isn't playing. I know that Ben Roethlisberger is gimpier than a Vietnam veteran at this point. I know the game's in Denver. I know the Steelers "look old" in many facets of the game. I know the whole "Tebow Magic" thing is in play. I know that literally everyone in the country is picking in the Steelers. Nobody believes in the Broncos.
And to be honest, I was ready to buck the trend. I was ready to defy logic and pick the Broncos. I was ready to put faith in Tim Tebow despite his 41% completion percentage during the Broncos' three-game losing streak. And then I saw the headline "Brady Quinn splits first-team snaps with Tebow". I would have been more encouraged had the headline read "Elway leaving front office duties to return to quarterbacking the Broncos". Plus Pittsburgh is the number 1 ranked D.
I'm 6 games below .500 entering the season's final week. I'm rushing these picks because I just got back from Amherst for New Year's. In this last ditch effort to make it to that elusive .500 mark, I just gotta follow the gut rather than logic. So here we go.
Last Week: 9-7 Season: 111-117-12 Locks of the Week: 10-6 (Panthers over Buccaneers in Week 16)
Home team in CAPS
EAGLES (-7.5) over Redskins
Can you imagine if the Eagles don't even finish .500?
FALCONS (-9) over Buccaneers
It seems like just yesterday that Raheem Morris said the Buccaneers were the "best team in the NFC".
49ers (-12.5) over RAMS
Weren't the Rams set to be in the 49ers position and win the NFC West this year? Yikes.
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Bears
Could have been yet another "Donovan McNabb Revenge Game". Heck even a Brett Favre Revenge Game. Nope instead it'll be Josh McCown playing out the string on a Bears team that should have been in the playoffs had they not been so ignorant about their QB situation sans Cutler.
PACKERS (+6.5) over Lions
A 14-1 team is almost a touchdown underdog? At home? I know Rodgers won't play much but my God! Lock of the Week.
Panthers (+7) over SAINTS
Panthers will be a playoff team next year. You heard it here first.
TEXANS (+2.5) over Titans
They could use some momentum heading into the post-season. Titans not dead yet either.
BENGALS (+2.5) over Ravens
Raise your hand if you said Andy Dalton would have a chance to lead the Bengals to the playoffs with a win in Week 17 this year. You're lying.
Steelers (-7) over BROWNS JAGUARS (-3) over Colts Seahawks (+2.5) over Cardinals
The NFL's gameplan to have all Week 17 games be divisional contests doesn't always work out.
Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS
Can't wait to see the Jets win and still not get in.
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Buffalo
Come on, the Patriots won't lose to the Bills twice in one season. Hasn't happened since the 90's, so why start now?
Chargers (+2.5) over RAIDERS
The end of the Norv Turner era goes out with a bang.
Chiefs (+2) over BRONCOS
Tebow will "back in" to the playoffs. Get it? Get it?
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
If Tony Romo had simply connected with Miles Austin on that third down play in the 4th quarter in the teams first meeting, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
-708277.JPG)
