NFL Divisional Weekend Picks

I started off last weekend 3-0, correctly calling the Texans, Saints, and Giants wins respectively. Heading into the late Sunday game, Broncos vs. Steelers, I figured I had a very good shot to finish off the weekend with a perfect record, as I felt most confident in my pick of the Steelers putting an end to TebowMania. As the game progressed, and it became clear that the Broncos had a chance not only to cover the spread, but to win outright, I began rooting for the latter result. I felt much more confident with the Broncos coming to Foxboro than the Steelers, as the Patriots looked their very worst this season against Pittsburgh, the one of their three losses they truly would have had no business winning. And the Patriots looked at perhaps their very best against the Broncos in their December meeting.

Now listen, I'm by no means a religious person. I don't read the Bible, I don't read the Torah, and I sure as hell don't read the Koran. But if you aren't straight up petrified by all of this "316" stuff with Tebow, I don't know what to tell you. Roethlisberger threw his interception on 3rd and 16? The game drew a 31.6 rating from CBS? Tebow threw for 316 yards? There was a cloud shaped like a halo above Mile High, which also happens to be the highest elevated stadium in the NFL, and therefore the closest to heaven? The NFL's "virgin" voyage of the new playoff rules lasts just 11 seconds on a Tebow pass? Eerie. Straight up eerie. I can throw a better spiral than Tebow and I'm still shaking.

Of course, you wouldn't know it, but there's actually 3 other games this weekend. And some high quality games might I add. As Adam Schefter tweeted yesterday, there are 4 QB's in the divisional round with Super Bowl MVP's for the first time ever (Brady, E. Manning, Rodgers, Brees). Playoff football is back in San Francisco for the first time since the Jeff Garcia-Terrell Owens hookup (pun totally intended). The Packers, who are one lousy game away from being 16-0, face off against a team that was a f*cking helment catch away from not preventing a team from going 19-0 not along ago. I can't come up with anything super-catchy for Ravens-Texans, but dammit....it should still be a good game. And no I can't go 11-0, but 10-1 still sounds pretty great right?

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1


Home team in CAPS

Saints (-3.5) over 49ERS


There's lots of logic that should point me in the other direction for this one. The Saints averaged 41 points per game at home, but just 27 per on the road. The 49ers were fourth overall in defense, and second in scoring defense (14.3, just behind the Steelers at 14.2). The Saints lost on the road against a far inferior NFC West opponent last January (Seattle).

There's also lots of logic that points me in the direction I'm taking. Every year at least one home team loses in the divisional round coming off of a bye. The Patriots and Falcons last year being our most recent examples. Aren't the Saints the best of the four road teams this weekend? I mean they're the only ones favored, after all. Secondly, I know all about the Saints home/away splits. Brees and the Saints were still 5-3 on the road, and are no doubt a completely different team now than the team that unfathomably lost to St. Louis and Tampa Bay on the road earlier in the season. Who's hotter than Brees under center right now? Doesn't it feel like he threw for 6,000 yards this season? And perhaps the most logical reason of all to pick against the 49ers? It's Alex Smith! In the playoffs! Who knew this day would ever come? We may never get a chance to bet against Alex Smith in the playoffs again, so there's on way I'm blowing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Saints 28, 49ers 20


PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Broncos


Without getting into semantics, I'll make this one quick: Tom Brady has lost three playoff games in a row, and I don't care who's standing in front of him, he's not about to lose a fourth. Even if it is Jesus blocking his path. That 316 stuff? Maybe it just means Tebow throws 3 interceptions on 16 passing attempts today.

Patriots 35, Broncos 17


RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans


The Texans have officially entered the "just happy to be here" phase of the post-season. Getting there for the first time was great, and actually winning a game? Even better. There's still plenty of hope for the future in Houston, with Matt Schaub, Mario Williams, and a 100% Andre Johnson set to return next year. On top of a team that was second in rushing and first in total defense.

It's just that much like with the 49ers, I'm having a hard time taking the quarterback seriously. And to his credit, TJ Yates has done a more than passable job since taking over for the injured Schaub and Matt Leinart in Week 12. But he hasn't faced a challenge such as the Ravens during the stretch. This could be the last stand for Ray Lewis. Ed Reed is up there in age too. Don't forget about Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. The Ravens defense seemingly gets better with age, as this is the third time in the last four seasons the unit has ranked in the top 3 in the league (last year they still finished 10th). As long as Joe Flacco doesn't get in the way, the Ravens cruise here.

Ravens 24, Texans 10


PACKERS (-7.5) over Giants


All we keep hearing about is how the Giants are primed for another run, just like in 2007. How they're using the exact same formula this season as they did that season, when they wound up winning the Super Bowl. I swear this isn't out of bitterness, but people realize they were one f*cking helmet catch away from merely being the runners-up that season? That all this "formula" talk is based off one catch made by a career special-teamer who never caught a pass in the NFL again?

And to be fair, Eli Manning is exponentially more effective now than he was back in 2007. You can also point out that Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing for the first time since December 25; rust could most definitely be a factor. But it warrants mentioning that, since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule, there have been 5 instances of teams winning 15 or more regular season games (1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1998 Vikings, 2004 Steelers, 2007 Patriots). All 5 won at least won playoff game. These Packers can fling the ball around right up there with those '98 Vikes and '07 Pats. And once again, I know that this Giants "formula" is what knocked off the Patriots ultimately that year. Not buying it this time around. Brett Favre ain't walking through that door to throw a pick in overtime.

Packers 38, Giants 21

Photo credit: Sam Williams