Ramblin' Man: 1/31/11

Jesus I haven't posted in 8 days? My sincerest apologies Experience fans. Alright:

So like I said, it's been 8 days. But I went 2-0 on Championship Sunday to even my playoff record at 5-5, with
a chance to finish above the hallowed .500 mark if I can get the Super Bowl right.

Who do I like in the Super Bowl? I haven't made an official pick yet, but I'm definitely leaning Packers. At least for now.

Maybe I'm just scared that if the Steelers do win, Roethlisberger will tie Brady at 3 rings apiece. But the worst part of that is that Roethlisberger will have won all of his after Brady's most recent. Last thing we need right now.

Ok, a win in January can never atone for losing Game 7 of an NBA finals. But just remember this: With the Pierce/Garnett/Allen/Rondo/Perkins lineup in tact, the Celtics have never lost a playoff series. Look it up: they're 7-0.

By the way, Paul Pierce is still the Celtics best player.

It's all a moot point now since he made it, but if any of you caught the end of the Miami/OKC game yesterday, LeBron passed up a wide-open look at a potential game-winner, instead deferring to former Celtics' hero Eddie House. Since House made it, I doubt the deferral by LeBron makes it on to Around the Horn or PTI today, but it still warrants mentioning. Think Kobe passes up that shot? Think Jordan does? Hell, does Dwyane Wade give it up for Eddie House?

NHL All-Star Game yesterday: Great TV

NFL Pro Bowl yesterday: Not-so-great TV

The NHL All-Star fantasy draft was a huge success. Mr. Irrelevant? Phil Kessel. 19 goals, and a -19 rating so far this season.

A little surprising the Eagles decided to franchise Mike Vick rather than sign him to an extension, especially considering they're looking to trade Kevin Kolb now. I realize the labor situation may have played a role in the decision, because who knows if there will even be a franchise tag in the new CBA, but wouldn't it be smarter to commit to Vick long-term rather than just one year if they're going to trade Kolb? Not for nothing, Vick is going to be 31 by the time training camp rolls around. So I can also see that side of the logic by giving him just a one year deal for now. Philly made the right decision in trading Donovan McNabb this past off-season, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing. For now.

Championship Sunday: The Picks

What should I be more upset about? The fact that the Pats are done? Or my despicable 3-5 record on picking games so far this post-season? I'll need to run the table to finish above .500. Not the kind of stress I need as I decide who to root for today between the Jets and Steelers.

Do I root for the loud-mouthed, obese coach with a foot fetish? Who employs Bart "Days are Numbered" Scott? And Braylon Edwards, he of the DUI earlier this season? Or LaDanian Tomlinson, who's quick to point out, "the Patriots have absolutely no class, and I think it comes from their head coach"? And Mark Sanchez, pride of Mexico?

Then again, the Steelers quarterback is just as good at eluding blitzes as he is eluding law enforcement when it comes to raping chicks. But Mike Tomlin, the Steelers coach, is one classy individual, I'll give it to him. So it's really a no brainer my allegiances will be with the Steel Curtain. But who will actually win that one?

I'm not taking anything away from the Jets after embarrassing the Patriots last week, but you don't get to hang a banner for a divisional-round victory. And the way they acted in the aftermath, you'd have thought they'd just captured Super Bowl XLV. I feel like the Jets have ran out of gas, and frankly I couldn't be happier. Troy Polamalu will have at least one big play for the Steelers, be it an interception or a sack of sorts.

Steelers (-4) over Jets, 28-16


And apparently there's an NFC game today as well. I picked the Packers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl before the season, and I see no reason to change that now. The name 'Rodgers' is about to become synonymous with 'Manning', 'Brady', and 'Brees'.

Packers (-4) over Bears, 35-20


C'mon, there couldn't be a Super Bowl QB match-up of Sanchez/Cutler.

Ramblin' Man: 1/20/11

So it's not much, but Boston teams are 4-1 since the debacle in Foxboro on Sunday.

I'm watching the Blazers-Clippers game as we speak, and the Blazers GM has braces. And we wonder why that franchise can't catch a break.

Supposedly, the Mavericks are going to pick up Peja Stojakovic once he clears waivers. Great, great move for my controversial Western Conference pick.

With most NBA teams having surpassed the halfway point of 41 games played, is there a clear-cut leader for MVP?  Other than the generic choices of LeBron, Kobe, Durant, etc., none of whom are worthy at this point in time, in my opinion, who is there? I'll tell you who: Blake Griffin. Sure, the Clippers are still just a paltry 16-25. And no player on a team with a losing record has won the NBA MVP since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1976. That being said, the Clip Show is 11-4 since the 5-21 start. And the no. 8 seed in the West is surprisingly up for grabs. When you get a chance, do yourself a favor and tune into a Clippers game just to watch this kid.

I'm pretty sure I'm the first person ever to say "do yourself a favor and tune into a Clippers game".

Hate to pour salt in the wounds here, but:

Cleveland Cavaliers record on January 20, 2010: 32-11, best record in Eastern Conference (2nd overall)
Cleveland Cavaliers record on January 20, 2011: 8-33, worst record in NBA

The NHL has screwed up many things over the past 20 years or so, but this ain't one of them: the new all-star format. In case you haven't heard, two captains have been elected (Eric Staal, Nick Lidstrom), and from there, the two will pick their respective teams from the remaining field of all-stars. School yard pick-em style. Boy I'd hate to be the last one picked. But for once, Czar Bettman got it right. This is how you generate interest in a league.

Don't look now, URI hoops is 12-6, 3-1 in conference. This includes a signature win over surprising ACC contender BC. Reversal of last year, start lukewarm end strong.

Quietly, Hingham native Brian Boyle has netted 16 goals so far for the New York Rangers. Maybe I'm only noticing this because he was a quality waiver-wire pickup in fantasy hockey for me. Maybe not. But you can't argue with results.

Both Kiper and McShay have the Pats taking a running back in the 1st round. If I know Belichick, which I don't, there's no way he gets burned by a back that early again. Not after Maroney.

If I'm the Denver Nuggets, I bench Carmelo Anthony. What a selfish bastard. The Nugs had a puncher's chance to make some noise this year, but his act wanting out has thwarted any such plans. Deactivate him until they can trade his sorry ass.

On that note, the top 3 picks of the 2003 draft can now be labeled either quitters or busts: LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony. What a shame.

Darko Milicic is making $5,000,000 this season for the Timberwolves. And I thought J.D. Drew was overpaid.

Stay tuned for my AFC/NFC Conference Championship picks on Saturday.

By The Way

The Bruins won 7-0 today! That's 6, 7, 2, and 7 goals over the 4-game homestand. Tim Thomas has 7 shutouts, most by a Bruin since Lord Byron Dafoe in 1999. It's called Bruins, right? Start engraving the Cup now who needed another Lombardi anyways?

Foxboro Follies: It Is What It Is

It's a good thing they vote for MVP and other awards before the post-season begins. Not that anyone in the Patriots' locker room cares, but that wasn't the presumable league MVP under center for the Patriots yesterday. And that was no Coach of the Year candidate on the sidelines either. The Pats dropped their third consecutive playoff game yesterday in Foxboro, 28-21, but the score wasn't nearly as close as it may indicate.

The beautiful thing about Tom Brady is that even when he lays an egg like he did yesterday, his numbers can still mask his actual performance. 29 for 45, 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick, an 89.0 QB rating. Not MVP numbers, no, but generally speaking those numbers aren't so bad right? The facts this morning are that we live in a world where Mark Sanchez outperformed Tom Brady in every facet of the quarterback position. In the playoffs. The playoffs? Playoffs? You kidding me?

Harsh reality sets in again when you realize this: the Patriots have now lost 3 straight in the post-season, dating back to Super Bowl XLII. Their last win was against the Chargers in the 2007 AFC Championship Game. Since starting off his post-season career 10-0, Tom Brady is just 4-5 since defeating the Jaguars in the 2005 Wild-Card round.

Now, this is not a eulogy for the Brady/Belichick Patriots. Step back and remember expectations for this team in August. 10-6 was generous by most accounts, while many pundits penciled them in for a mere 8-8 or 9-7. To say these Patriots exceeded expectations would be an understatement. That being said, to finish 14-2 and have your season end like it did is flat out sickening.

Where to begin? The final score shows the Patriots only lost by 7. If you didn't watch the game you'd think, "Wow, this must've been a close game that came down to the 4th quarter. Probably came down to the last possession". And sure, in theory, the Pats had a chance to tie the game late. But to be in that situation in the first place just shows how much the Jets dominated the Patriots. That's right, dominated. 


The end of Brady's INT-less streak was a bad omen from the get-go, although Alge Crumpler going all Ben Watson on us definitely was an encouraging sign. Especially after former Cowboys' great Nick Folk missed a chip-shot of a field goal.  But unfortunately, the Crumpler-Watson connection went further than the heroic tackle, as he dropped an absolute gimme from Brady in the end zone that would've given the Pats a 7-0 lead. Instead they settled for a field goal, and after the Jets scored never led again.

My biggest issue with the Patriots yesterday was the play-calling. In homage to that fateful Super Bowl XLII, New England got away from what had made them so successful in the first place, and instead tried to find a new identity offensively. Brady targeted the tight ends just 12 times, including Aaron Hernandez just once. The running game was stagnant all afternoon, particularly when Danny Woodhead carried the ball, yet the Patriots insisted on handing him the rock well into the 4th quarter when their mentality should've been pass-pass-pass. Woodhead rushed 14 times for 46 yards, never breaking off a run of more than 8 yards.

The most frustrating drive yesterday was the 14 play, 48 yard drive which began early in the 4th when the Pats were down 21-11. In a two-possession game, the philosophy of the offense should be, as I mentioned earlier, pass first.  Instead, the Patriots ran the ball 7 times on the drive, and even when they did pass, had no sense of urgency getting back to the line. On almost every play it seemed like they were using the entire 40 seconds of the play clock. I realize the Patriots use complex substitution packages, but was switching up personnel ever a problem during the regular season? The Pats wound up using 7:45 of the clock, more than half the quarter, and came up with nothing.

What caused the Patriots to get so damn conservative on that drive? On their previous possession in the 3rd quarter, it took them just 8 plays to go 80 yards in a mere 3:51. It was Brady at his very best, airing the ball out, spreading it around, and most importantly, it left plenty of time still on the clock for New England to mount a comeback. The play calling, simply put, was deplorable. I'm not sure who was responsible for it, whether it was Belichick or Bill O'Brien, but it needs to be addressed, and immediately.

Anyways, after the 14-play drive yielded nothing, the Patriots seemed as though they were just going through the motions, not really showing any signs of life or giving any hints of a comeback.  Doesn't Tom Brady have any sense of pride? Or anyone on the Patriots? The Jets just might be the most classless team in the NFL, as their pre-game smack talk throughout the week indicate. And the Pats just roll over like they did? Brady has become famous for his energy on the sidelines, motivating anyone and anything  he comes into contact with. Where was that yesterday? I hate myself for even mentioning this possibility, but do you think some players on the team were turned off by Belichick's benching of Wes Welker on the opening series? Let's say Tom Brady says something about Rex Ryan's foot fetish in a press conference. Does BB start Brian Hoyer?

Yesterday left a disgusting taste in the mouths of all of Patriots Nation, and we have far more questions than answers as to what happened right now. But again, take a step back and think back to August. This team actually won 14 games? It sucks the way it ended, but it is what it is. Labor  situation-permitting, the Patriots will be back with a vengeance in August.

Divisional Playoff Weekend: The Picks

After starting off the weekend 0-2, thanks to the still under-.500 Seahawks and J-E-T-S, I rallied Sunday to finish up at a respectable 2-2. Ideal? No. But when picking against the spread anything at .500 or above is pretty solid. The Philly-Packers game unfolded almost exactly as I expected to, with the Green Bay D containing Vick and the corners shutting down the Philly passing attack. Fitting how the game ended on a Tramon Williams pick. Very poor performance by the Chiefs against the Ravens, who clearly are another year away from being true contenders.

So we head into the divisional round of the playoffs with all kinds of intriguing storylines, as every game is a grudge match from earlier on in the season. And especially in the case of the AFC games, none of the teams playing are exactly fond of one another.

Before I take my talents to Long Island for the weekend, here are some abbreviated picks:


Ravens (+3.5) over Steelers

More and more each week, the Ravens seem to be rounding into form as the team some saw (like myself) as the Super Bowl favorite heading into the season. No need to stop riding them now. Go with the Flac-Attack.

Ravens 19, Steelers 14


Packers (+2) over Falcons


Similar to the Ravens, they are getting stronger ever week and don't seem to be phased by anything. No matter who's hurt, they have guys stepping up and making plays in big spots. I mean before last week, who the hell knew who James Starks was? After rushing for just 101 yards in the regular season, he broke loose for 123 last week. I know the Falcons are tough at home, but when it doubt, go with your gut.

Packers 35, Falcons 28


Seahawks (+10) over Bears


I know I ripped Seattle to shreds last week. I gave them no chance in hell against the Saints. Did a team with a 7-9 record deserve any credit for making the post-season? I still say no, but they shut me and thousands of other critics up with an inspiring win over the defending champs. Meanwhile, people in Buffalo are jamming nails in their eyes while watching clips of Marshawn Lynch's touchdown run. But hey CJ Spiller had a great rookie year right?

If Seattle can beat New Orleans, can't they beat anyone? I think the luck has to end some time. It won't be a blowout, but I'm going with the Bears in an ugly, turnover-heavy game.

Bears 21, Seahawks 16


Patriots (-9) over Jets


I'm not even going to waste any time. 45-3. Foot fetish.

Patriots 38, Jets 21

Wild Card Weekend: The Picks

Is there a better feeling than being able to sit back, relax, and not have to worry about the Pats on the opening weekend of the NFL post-season? Not like that'd be a problem right now, as it seems anyone who gets in New England's way is simply steamrolled aside. But for the fourth time in the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats have earned a 1st round bye. And the team advanced to the Super Bowl the first three go-rounds, so there's no reason to think this year will be different. More on that next week, though.

It seems like one of those years where the wild-card teams are stronger than the lesser division winners, so we could be looking at a lot of road teams winning.  Does it help that a 7-9 team is hosting the defending Super Bowl champs? Without further ado, the picks

Saints (-10) over Seahawks


Just how bad is Seattle? The NFC West "Champions", if you want to call them that, are the first sub-.500 team to qualify for the post-season in NFL history. But this wasn't your typical 7-9 team. They were 28th in the NFL in total offense, including 31st in rushing. 31st! And it's not like they had a solid defense to fall back on either; they were ranked 27th.

Matt Hasselbeck may still be the quarterback, but he's had only one good season since leading Seattle to Super Bowl XL. In 2007, Hasselbeck threw for 3,966 yards, 28 TDs, and just 12 picks. Since then, his average season has been 2,415 yards, 11 TDs, and 15 INTs. This included a 12:17 TD/INT ratio this season.

We're supposed to think Seattle has any chance? This line can't be high enough. I don't care that Seattle is supposedly a tough place to play; Drew Brees and Co. has been there, done that.

Saints 35, Seahawks 10


Colts (-2.5) over Jets


Nothing like the prime time game of the week between two teams we love to hate.  Peyton Manning would be the first to tell you he didn't have his best season. His 17 picks were the most he'd thrown since  2002. That being said, he did set a career high in passing yards, eclipsing the 4,700 yard mark. Granted some of those totals can be attributed to the Colts lack of a rushing attack, but Joe Addai is healthy and ready to go to ease the pressure on Manning.

This one will be closer than you'd think because the Jets do have a pretty good rushing attack, and the Colts, as always, struggle in stopping the run (26th in the league this year, and even in their Super Bowl season, they ranked dead last). But Peyton Manning, at home, at night? I don't see all those defensive playmakers Rex Ryan is talking about over there. If you can't get pressure against Peyton Manning, forget about it. It just doesn't seem to matter who he's throwing to; he finds a way to get the ball there.

Colts 24, Jets 14


Ravens (-3) over Chiefs 


Am I reading too much into Matt Cassel's performance last week? Whether there was something on the line for the Chiefs or not, an 11 for 33 passing performance is simply inexcusable. Throw in the 2 INTs, which gives him 3 in his three games since returning from the appendectomy. Not good news for Chiefs fans, with Ed Reed lurking on the opposing secondary. How insane is it that despite missing the first six weeks of the season, Reed still led the NFL in interceptions with 8? Gotta figure that'll be in the back of Cassel's mind.

What it really comes down to, though, is that the Ravens are road warriors in the post-season. Since the Flacco/Harbaugh tandem came to be in 2008, the Ravens have played in 5 playoff games, all on the road. They are 3-2 in those games, but have never lost in the 1st round.

The X-Factor of this game is Ray Rice. If he plays the way he's capable of playing, being a duel threat out of the backfield, the Chiefs don't stand a chance. That said, Raymundo has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, eclipsing the 100 yard mark in rushing only twice. Although we all remember how he torched the Pats in January last year.....

Give the Chiefs one more year. They've already exceeded expectations for 2010, in which no one thought they'd be a playoff team.

Ravens 27, Chiefs 20


Packers (+3) over Eagles


The last game of the weekend is quite possibly the best. Two teams with exhilarating offenses, to go along with defenses more than capable of making big plays. And since it's the best game, it's also been the most difficult to handicap.

It's easy to understand why the Eagles are favored. They're at home, they've got much fewer injury concerns than the Packers, and Mike Vick could be the most unstoppable force in the game once he gets going.

But when I break it down position by position, it just seems hard to see where the Packers have a disadvantage. If there's any pair of corners that can shutdown the Eagles receiving corps of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, it's the Packers tandem of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. Need help containing Mike Vick? Pretty sure that Clay Matthews will be chasing Vick down all day long. The  Packers offensive line, much maligned a year ago, has proven to be a much steadier unit this year. Trent Cole, the Eagles only pass-rusher of note, registered just 1 sack over the final 5 weeks of the regular season.

If there's one distinct advantage Philadelphia might have, it's the running game, where LeSean McCoy has been a revelation this year for the Eagles. Contrast that with the Packers, who after losing Ryan Grant in Week 1 to injury, ranked just 24th in rushing.

I've already changed my mind about this one about 382 times, so before I can change my mind again let's end this.

Packers 31, Eagles 27

Pats vs. Dolphins: Week 17

Yesterday's Patriots-Dolphins game was just the latest laugher of a game for New England. I was fortunate enough to attend the game in person, and despite the absences of Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, and Dan Connolly, the Patriots still rolled to a 38-7 victory over the hapless Fish. This marks the fourth finish of 14-2 or better of the Brady/Belichick era, and of the previous three occurrences all have netted Super Bowl berths.

Since a humbling 34-14 loss in Week 9 to the Cleveland Browns, the Patriots have won 8 in a row, their longest such regular-season streak since winning 20 in a row from December 2006-September 2008.  During said stretch, the Patriots have beaten their opponents by an average of nearly 22 points per game. The offense has put up over 37 points per game during the streak, harkening back memories of the prolific 2007 unit that put up 589 points. 

Can it be said that Tom Brady is even better this season than his historic 2007 campaign? On the surface, you can look at his passing yards and touchdown pass totals, and see significant drop-offs in both. 4,806 against 3,900 yards, 50 touchdown passes against 36. His completion percentage was down a tad as well, three whole points from 68.9 to 65.9.

Yet there is no doubt in my mind that I'll take the Tom Brady of 2010 over the Tom Brady of 2007 without thinking twice. And oddly enough, the reason is Randy Moss. I was a major opponent of the Moss trade at first, failing to see how an offense could possibly get better after trading one of the top 10 receivers of all-time. I ignored all the cliches such as "it'll be back like the old days, Tom's go-to guy being whoever is open!" and just thought to myself: I don't care how you slice it down, we just got rid of Randy freakin' Moss.

But you know what? That cliche couldn't have been more accurate. In 2007, Brady targeted only seven of his receivers 10 or more times. This season, he increased the toal to twelve, truly "spreading the ball around". While Wes Welker was no doubt the premier receiver of the group, Brady's secondary options were interchangable all year long. Between Branch, Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski, the trio finished with 48, 45, and 42 receptions, respectively. Compare that to 2007, where after the Moss/Welker tandem, the drop-off to Brady's no. 3 target was an astounding 51 catches (Welker with 112, Moss with 98, Kevin Faulk with 47). In other words, the offense had become almost too predictable by the end of the year, hence the lack of blowouts by year's end and the ultimate defeat at the hands of the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

Sans Moss, Brady feels no pressure to force the ball into double or triple coverages, and everyone amongst the receiving corps seems to know their place. And Brady has become an even better quarterback as a result. Not to take anything away from that historic 2007, though. It looks as though there will be a similarity between the two seasons for Brady:  he will be the league's MVP.  Tom all but locked it up yesterday but extending his record of passes thrown without an interceptioin, as well as streak of  2 TD/0 INT games.

A few more thoughts on yesterday's game:

-Where was that all season, Julian Edelman? Hard as it is to fathom, Randy Moss had more catches in a Patriots uniform this year (9) than Edelman (7). Yesterday's three grabs were his first since Week 3 against Buffalo, but boy did he look good in the process. 72 yards, including a long 40 yard screen-pass where he did an outstanding job of following his blocks down the field. And then there was his Patriots-record 94 yard punt return....

-It figures that the one year the no. 1 and no. 2 overall picks in the draft aren't busts, the Patriots have two later selections that can very easily lay claim to Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year. TE Rob Gronkowski yesterday became the first rookie tight end since Mike Ditka to have 10 touchdown catches in a single sesason. He finished with 6 catches over all for 102 yards for his first career 100 yard day. Meanwhile, CB Devin McCourty continues to prove everyone wrong (myself included) that Belichick made a mistake trading down to take him in round 1 while Dez Bryant, among others, were still on the board. The shutdown corner notched his 7th pick of the year yesterday, basically stealing the ball out of Miami's Brandon Marshall's hands. Look for lots of Revis-esque hype to surround McCourty this off-season. That's not a bad thing, right?

-Congrats, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, on becoming the first Patriots running back since Corey Dillon in 2004 to compile a 1,000 yard rushing campaign. At the beginning of the season, whod've guessed that anyone on the Patriots roster would surpass 1,000 yards rushing?

-Get well, Danny Woodhead. The little guy suffered an undisclosed head injury in the 1st quarter and did not return, although that can likely be attributed to the lack of significance of the game. On a side note, one of the highlights of the game had to have been a Patriots fan wearing a Woodhead jersey with a block of wood on his head. This could be going mainstream.



Revis Island McCourty Island?



With the Colts victory and Chiefs loss yesterday, either Kansas City, Baltimore, or the J-E-T-S will be making their way to Foxboro in two weeks in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Check back later this week for a look at the Wild-Card round.