Wild Card Weekend: The Picks

Is there a better feeling than being able to sit back, relax, and not have to worry about the Pats on the opening weekend of the NFL post-season? Not like that'd be a problem right now, as it seems anyone who gets in New England's way is simply steamrolled aside. But for the fourth time in the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats have earned a 1st round bye. And the team advanced to the Super Bowl the first three go-rounds, so there's no reason to think this year will be different. More on that next week, though.

It seems like one of those years where the wild-card teams are stronger than the lesser division winners, so we could be looking at a lot of road teams winning.  Does it help that a 7-9 team is hosting the defending Super Bowl champs? Without further ado, the picks

Saints (-10) over Seahawks


Just how bad is Seattle? The NFC West "Champions", if you want to call them that, are the first sub-.500 team to qualify for the post-season in NFL history. But this wasn't your typical 7-9 team. They were 28th in the NFL in total offense, including 31st in rushing. 31st! And it's not like they had a solid defense to fall back on either; they were ranked 27th.

Matt Hasselbeck may still be the quarterback, but he's had only one good season since leading Seattle to Super Bowl XL. In 2007, Hasselbeck threw for 3,966 yards, 28 TDs, and just 12 picks. Since then, his average season has been 2,415 yards, 11 TDs, and 15 INTs. This included a 12:17 TD/INT ratio this season.

We're supposed to think Seattle has any chance? This line can't be high enough. I don't care that Seattle is supposedly a tough place to play; Drew Brees and Co. has been there, done that.

Saints 35, Seahawks 10


Colts (-2.5) over Jets


Nothing like the prime time game of the week between two teams we love to hate.  Peyton Manning would be the first to tell you he didn't have his best season. His 17 picks were the most he'd thrown since  2002. That being said, he did set a career high in passing yards, eclipsing the 4,700 yard mark. Granted some of those totals can be attributed to the Colts lack of a rushing attack, but Joe Addai is healthy and ready to go to ease the pressure on Manning.

This one will be closer than you'd think because the Jets do have a pretty good rushing attack, and the Colts, as always, struggle in stopping the run (26th in the league this year, and even in their Super Bowl season, they ranked dead last). But Peyton Manning, at home, at night? I don't see all those defensive playmakers Rex Ryan is talking about over there. If you can't get pressure against Peyton Manning, forget about it. It just doesn't seem to matter who he's throwing to; he finds a way to get the ball there.

Colts 24, Jets 14


Ravens (-3) over Chiefs 


Am I reading too much into Matt Cassel's performance last week? Whether there was something on the line for the Chiefs or not, an 11 for 33 passing performance is simply inexcusable. Throw in the 2 INTs, which gives him 3 in his three games since returning from the appendectomy. Not good news for Chiefs fans, with Ed Reed lurking on the opposing secondary. How insane is it that despite missing the first six weeks of the season, Reed still led the NFL in interceptions with 8? Gotta figure that'll be in the back of Cassel's mind.

What it really comes down to, though, is that the Ravens are road warriors in the post-season. Since the Flacco/Harbaugh tandem came to be in 2008, the Ravens have played in 5 playoff games, all on the road. They are 3-2 in those games, but have never lost in the 1st round.

The X-Factor of this game is Ray Rice. If he plays the way he's capable of playing, being a duel threat out of the backfield, the Chiefs don't stand a chance. That said, Raymundo has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, eclipsing the 100 yard mark in rushing only twice. Although we all remember how he torched the Pats in January last year.....

Give the Chiefs one more year. They've already exceeded expectations for 2010, in which no one thought they'd be a playoff team.

Ravens 27, Chiefs 20


Packers (+3) over Eagles


The last game of the weekend is quite possibly the best. Two teams with exhilarating offenses, to go along with defenses more than capable of making big plays. And since it's the best game, it's also been the most difficult to handicap.

It's easy to understand why the Eagles are favored. They're at home, they've got much fewer injury concerns than the Packers, and Mike Vick could be the most unstoppable force in the game once he gets going.

But when I break it down position by position, it just seems hard to see where the Packers have a disadvantage. If there's any pair of corners that can shutdown the Eagles receiving corps of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, it's the Packers tandem of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. Need help containing Mike Vick? Pretty sure that Clay Matthews will be chasing Vick down all day long. The  Packers offensive line, much maligned a year ago, has proven to be a much steadier unit this year. Trent Cole, the Eagles only pass-rusher of note, registered just 1 sack over the final 5 weeks of the regular season.

If there's one distinct advantage Philadelphia might have, it's the running game, where LeSean McCoy has been a revelation this year for the Eagles. Contrast that with the Packers, who after losing Ryan Grant in Week 1 to injury, ranked just 24th in rushing.

I've already changed my mind about this one about 382 times, so before I can change my mind again let's end this.

Packers 31, Eagles 27