NFL Week 8 Picks

After this weekend's games, most teams will have played half their schedule. Which means it's almost time for the mid-season awards, which I'll be getting to on the radio this week. For now? Here's the Week 8 Picks. I'm inching oh so close to the .500 mark, with another decent performance last week. 

Last Week: 7-5-1

Season: 47-50-6

Locks of the Week: 4-3 (Jaguars beat Ravens in Week 7)

Home team in CAPS

TITANS (-7.5) over Colts

These two teams were outscored 103-14 last week. There's really not much else to add. I guess the Titans are the pick because....really there's no logic to it. Take it for what it's worth.

TEXANS (-10) over Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert has thrown only 2 interceptions. He's also completed less than 50 percent of his throws (48.3). In fact, excluding his Week 3 cameo, he hasn't even completed 60 percent of his passes in a single game yet. Which explains why his QB rating is 69.4, despite the impressive lack of picks.

PANTHERS (-3) over Vikings

Cam Newton: 8 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing. If he can just cut back on those INTs.....

Saints (-13.5) over RAMS

Two weeks in a row Saints have been 13.5 point favorites, not getting the respect of two full touchdowns. But the real question is: if they can score 62 against Indy, does that mean they can chase 100 against St. Louis?

RAVENS (-11) over Cardinals

Take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands, put it in Ray Rice's, and this one won't even be close. Heck even if they do give Rice 8 carries again the Ravens should be fine in this one.

GIANTS (-9.5) over Dolphins

If Miami can make Tim Tebow look like a competent NFL quarterback, just imagine what they can do for Eli Manning! (Kidding, Giants fans, kidding. Sort of. Damn you David Tyree).

Bills (-4) over Redskins

Pretty sure there's already a football team in Toronto, Goodell. No need to steal a home game away from one of the NFL's most loyal fan bases. A pre-season game, fine. But not games that count. And Buffalo is actually a playoff contender this year? What a mockery and slap in the face it is to Bills nation.

BRONCOS (+3) over Lions

You know Tebowmania is in full effect when he's being referenced in the opening scene of South Park.

Patriots (-3) over STEELERS

Tom Brady hasn't lost to the Steelers since 2004. Why start now?

Browns (+9) over 49ERS

Very quietly, the Browns are a respectable 3-3. I do think San Fran wins this one, but not in blowout fashion. Maybe a touchdown difference. 9 was just too much right here.

Bengals (-1) over SEAHAWKS

At 2-4, Seattle is falling behind in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Can you imagine a scenario though in which they have the opportunity to take Luck, only to pass and take Pete Carroll's boy Matt Barkley out of USC? Sad thing is I don't think it would even phase Seattle sports fans. They've been through a 116-win baseball team that didn't even make it to the World Series, followed by a decade of incompetence from the Mariners; they lost not only the SuperSonics to freaking Oklahoma City, they lost a chance to watch Kevin Durant on a nightly basis; they dealt with the officiating atrocities of Super Bowl XL, and Shaun Alexander immediately losing his mojo afterwards. And this is all just within the last decade. Cleveland fans may argue, but I'd say Seattle's had the worst millennium so far.

EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys

The stretch of the Eagles needing to win every game starts....now. So I'll make them my lock yet again.

CHARGERS (-3) over Chiefs

What you do know about the Chiefs-Raiders game from a week ago is that Oakland threw 6 interceptions, 3 of them from prized acquisition Carson Palmer. What you don't know about the game is that Matt Cassel was almost as bad: 15-30, 161 yards, 2 INT (38.3 rating). Just for fun, I'd like to point out that both Palmer and Cassel are from USC. So is Mark Sanchez, and so was Matt Leinart. Matt Barkley fans: buyer beware.

The Red Sox best move of the off-season

And the World Series ain't even over yet. John Lackey is getting Tommy John surgery. I repeat:

JOHN LACKEY IS GETTING TOMMY JOHN SURGERY!!!!!

Instantly our rotation has been upgraded and the new boss, Ben Cherrington, didn't even need to do anything. Legitimately all the Red Sox need to do now is go get another starter who isn't John Lackey, which will be an upgrade in itself, and boom this team is back on the right track. Especially if Joe Torre bans beer from clubhouses....

NFL Week 7 Picks

The Lions finally lost. To the 49ers? No big deal, they each have the same record now. 5-1. Both seemingly locks for the post-season. It's early still, but could you imagine a potential Packers-49ers playoff matchup? Now you may be sitting there thinking "what's so great about that one, the Packers would murk them". And that may be valid. But in case you forgot, here's a little history lesson.

Way back in 2005, the 49ers were holders of the first pick in the draft, coming off a moribund 2-14 campaign. Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey split snaps under center, Kevan Barlow was the leading rusher, and Brandon Lloyd (yes, the same Brandon Lloyd who's risen from the dead) was the team's third leading receiver, behind the immortal Eric Johnson and Cedrick Wilson. Patrick Willis didn't exist yet, so there wasn't much going on on defense, either.

Anyways, due to the incompetence of the Rattay's and Dorsey's of the world, the 9ers seemed a surefire bet to take a quarterback with that top overall pick. The only question was: Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers?

Okay so it wasn't quite Tom Brady being selected 199th. But you could say Rodgers has played with a little chip on his shoulder since taking over the Packers offense full-time in 2008. All he's done is won a Super Bowl (as well as its MVP honors), averaged 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions per season, averaged 4,131 yards through the air, and carries a very respectable 33-20 record as Green Bay's starter (27-10 since the start of 2009).

Alex Smith, in the meantime? Has played a full 16 games just once, complied a 24-32 record as a starter, and his TD/INT ratio against Rodgers' looks like this: 59/55 vs. 104/35. He's been labeled a bust on more than one occasion.

And sure, it's pretty clear the 49ers made a huge error in selected Smith over Rodgers on that fateful day. But who'd have thought that the two teams would potentially be on a collision course to square off in the NFC Championship Game some seven seasons later, with both quarterbacks still calling the shots? Smith has already lived about eight of his nine football lives in San Francisco, yet here he is, one more shot under Jim Harbaugh, and wouldn't you know it, the 49ers are a Tony Romo-comeback away from joining the Packers as the only 6-0 teams. Smith is completing 63% of his passes (a career high), has thrown just 2 interceptions (up against just 8 touchdowns, but still), and is on pace for 2,907 yards through the air. Not spectacular by any means, but a career high. And those two interceptions through six games? Brady-esque. Well, 2010 Brady.

Bottom line here: look at the 49ers schedule. Tell me 12-4 isn't realistic. They're on bye this week, and really only have three games remaining that would be considered "difficult": home vs. the Giants November 13, @ Baltimore on Thanksgiving night, and home vs. the Steelers in a Monday night clash December 19. Even if the 49ers do fall back to Earth and go, say, 3-7 the rest of the way, not all hope is lost for a Rodgers-Smith NFCCG clash; they do play in the NFC West, after all. On with the picks.




Last Week: 6-6-1
Season: 40-45-5
Locks of the Week: 4-2 (Eagles over Redskins in Week 6)


Home team in CAPS

Buccaneers (+1.5) over Bears (in London)


No true home team in this one, although the Bucs have the most London ties in the NFL with the Glazer family, who own the Bucs, also owning the Premier League's Manchester United. Last time Tampa played in London, in 2009, Brandon Meriweather had a pick-six for the Pats as they rolled, 35-7. Wouldn't ya know it, Meriweather is back for more at Wembley, this time as a member of the Bears. I just don't see him getting in the endzone this time around. And if that's not enough to pick Tampa in this one, then I don't know what is.

PANTHERS (-2.5) over Redskins


What does it say about your team when John Beck is coming in as the savior from a Rex Grossman disaster? Does it mean you should have kept Donovan McNabb? Or maybe just held on to Jason Campbell? Mark Brunell? Patrick Ramsey?

It's been a long decade at the quarterback position in our nation's capital.

BROWNS (-3) over Seahakws


Seneca Wallace revenge game! He still plays for the Browns, right? I wouldn't touch this game with a twenty-foot pole. Mediocrity never wins. And while we're here, is Peyton Hillis having the worst season ever by a Madden cover boy? I mean sure we've seen players get affected by the injury bug before after being on the cover, but come on. Strep throat? Really? I remember my first tampon.

Texans (+3) over TITANS


Even without Andre Johnson for at least another week, I'm thinking Houston finds a way to stay afloat. By the way, Chris Johnson: Judge Smails has something to say on behalf of all fantasy owners.

JETS (PK) over Chargers


The comedy in a war of words between Rex Ryan and Norv Turner? Can't even be described. Although I'll give Norv credit where credit is due: that was a great zinger back at Rexy boy.

DOLPHINS (+2) over Broncos


Matt Moore vs. Tim Tebow huh? Just imagine, Dolphins fans, it should be Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow. Not that it would make too much of a difference, but at least Orton's QB rating isn't 52.8.

Falcons (+5) over LIONS


Absolutely incredible story about Jerome Harrison and the trade-that-wasn't basically saving his life. But in reality, the Lions really can't run the ball at this point. Which is a shame because Harrison actually could've helped them this week. Does anyone remember when he ran for 286 yards, the third largest single-game total in NFL history, as a member of the Browns back in 2009? And he followed that up with 148 and 127 yard performances, only to be discarded in 2010 by Madden cover boy. What an interesting career so far, to say the least.

Chiefs (+3.5) over RAIDERS


If you're giving up two 1st round picks for Carson Palmer, leaving yourself without your top four picks in the following years draft, I know this much: you'd best be starting him right away. What a heist for Cincinnati. Sure they'll find a way to bungle the picks, but wow. Palmer's been overrated these past few years as it is anyways, and to get that kind of haul for him? Maybe Al Davis isn't dead yet after all.

Steelers (-4) over CARDINALS


One of two recent Super Bowl-rematches on the day (Saints-Colts being the other). One of two recent Super Bowl-rematches that won't even be close and difficult to watch, as well.

Rams (+14) over COWBOYS


I don't feel comfortable in any scenario in which Tony Romo is a two-touchdown favorite. I'm not saying St. Louis is going to win I'm just saying on what planet does it make sense to spot Tony Romo 14 points. It just doesn't make sense, right?

Packers (-10) over VIKINGS


I could make an easy pun using Christian Ponder, but that's the easy way out. Instead I'll just let the storyline speak for itself: the Vikings are trusting a rookie QB making his first NFL start against the defending Super Bowl champions. Man is this an easy week or what?

SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts


See Steelers/Cardinals comment. And by the way, if Tony Romo is good enough for a full 14 points, dammit shouldn't Drew Brees be too? Colts are also winless, in case you forgot. It is still weird.

Ravens (-9.5) over JAGUARS


Poor Blaine Gabbert. Pittsburgh and Baltimore back-to-back weeks? It's almost like the time Francona completely shattered the confidence of Cla Meredith back in 2005. You're damn right I just went there. No one other than maybe Frank or Ben Riley will know what I'm talking about but whatever. This is also my Lock of the Week.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Picks coming in a day early this week, off to UMass for the night tonight in what should be one for the ages.

Won't do anything too fancy this week, other than mention that quietly I've put together back-to-back winning weeks to inch closer to that .500 mark. Baby steps.

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 34-39-4
Locks of the Week: 3-2 (Texans lost to Raiders in Week 5)


Home team in CAPS

PACKERS (-14) over Rams


Because St. Louis has regressed to the way they were 2007-2009.

STEELERS (-12) over Jaguars


Because Blaine Gabbert doesn't know what he's in for with the Pittsburgh D.

Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS


Because the Eagles have to win one of these weeks, right? I'm making them my Lock of the Week again. Let's go.

LIONS (-4) over 49ers


Because it's fun living in a world where the Lions are undefeated in mid-October.

Panthers (+4) over FALCONS


Because Cam Newton is sick and tired of moral victories.

Colts (+7) over BENGALS


Because the Bengals are due to lose a game they're actually supposed to win.

GIANTS (-3) over Bills


Because Eli Manning can't possibly have two bad performances in a row, right? Wait actually that's not only possible, but likely. Whatever let's keep going before I change my mind.

RAVENS (-8) over Texans


Because the Texans would lose Mario Williams in a season that was basically gift-wrapped for them to take the AFC South.

RAIDERS (-6.5) over Browns


Because the Black Hole is gonna be rockin' for Al.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Cowboys


Because Tony Romo will inevitably throw an interception to Vince Wilfork.

BUCCANEERS (+5.5) over Saints


Because Tampa needs to rebound from that debacle by the bay last weekend.

Vikings (+2.5) over BEARS


Because Jared Allen is about to get real comfortable with Jay Cutler and the Bears' offensive line.

JETS (-7) over Dolphins


Because when Matt Moore and Brandon Marshall are prominently involved on Monday night, go the other direction.

Editor's Mistake

Under one of the poll's I posted yesterday, for Theo's "best move" as Red Sox GM, I erroneously made one of the choices his acquisitions of Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell from Florida. If you recall, Theo went on hiatus in the winter of 2005-06 after a contract dispute, and thus was not calling the shots when the Sox pulled off the blockbuster. I believe it was the tandem of Ben Cherrington and Jed Hoyer that made the move. I apologize for the error.

Theo Epstein: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Seems like just yesterday, back on November 25, 2002, Red Sox Nation was being introduced to some kid out of Yale, some wunderkind 28-year old who was set to become, at the time, the youngest General Manager in baseball history. The kid had local ties, graduating Brookline High in 1991, and like so many other local youth, dreamed of one day working for the Red Sox in some capacity.

On the same day as Larry Lucchino took over as Red Sox president and CEO, he shocked the baseball world by naming young Theo Epstein as General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. Despite coming off a season in which both Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe won 20 games apiece, and with Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez bolstering the middle of the lineup, the Red Sox finished second in the AL East to the Yankees and failed to win the wild card, courtesy of the soon-to-be-champion Anaheim Angels.

The Red Sox did still win 93 games that season, despite not qualifying for October, but there was something missing. The team just lacked a killer instinct. It's worth mentioning that beyond Pedro and D-Lowe, the Sox rotation featured Frank Castillo, John Burkett, and Casey Fossum (with the occasional Tim Wakefield sighting).

It is in the winter of 2002-2003 that Theo Epstein went to work, with one goal, and one goal only in mind: to snap the then 84 year "Curse of the Bambino", and bring the World Series trophy back to Boston. Rather than focus on making any major acquisitions, Theo focused on finding bargain bin guys. The core of the team was strong enough, but it was a lack of organizational depth that crept well down into the minor leagues that had haunted the Red Sox. Epstein took a chance on guys like David Ortiz, Jeremy Giambi, Kevin Millar, and Bill Mueller to add to the offense. In the moribund bullpen, he rolled the dice on Mike Timlin, Chad Fox, Rudy Seanez, and Ramiro Mendoza. During the regular season, he brought in Jeff Suppan, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Scott Williamson. Some of these moves would pan out, no question. Others would blow up under the microscope of Boston.

As you know by now, Epstein went 4 for 8 on the scrap-heap guys (if you can't figure out the foursome, you aren't a Red Sox fan), while none of  the three mid-season acquisitions had a very positive impact (Kim later flipped off the Fenway Faithful, Williamson got called out for his manhood, but Suppan did help the Red Sox in 2004. More on that later). 

We all know how 2003 came to a crashing and sudden halt. Yet the stunning turn of events in Game 7 of the ALCS may have precipitated two of Epstein's finest moments in Boston: the acquisition of Curt Schilling from Arizona, and the free agent signing of Keith Foulke. The Red Sox got Schilling for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa, and a minor leaguer. From a sheer value standpoint, the absolute finest moment of Epstein's Red Sox career. He spent his Thanksgiving with the Schilling's to make it happen! Foulke gave the bullpen an actual closer after the disastrous "bullpen-by-committee" approach in 2003, and a damn good closer at that. Another one of Epstein's finest moves, if not his ballsiest, came at the trade deadline in 2004, when the Red Sox traded franchise icon Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs (foreshadowing much?) for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkeiwicz in a four-team blockbuster. The Red Sox went on to complete a comeback from 0-3 down against the Yankees and defeat the Cardinals in the World Series for their first championship in 86 years. Suppan's contribution came as a member of St. Louis, a base running blunder in Game 3. Hey, who says he never helped the Red Sox out?

There is no way to put into words what the 2004 World Series meant to the greater Boston area, so I won't even attempt to. Theo Epstein added a few pieces to the puzzle that finally made all the pieces fit together. For that, and for the 2007 Championship even, he gets a free meal in Boston for life and dammit, if he ever comes into Pro Sports, the John Lackey T-shirt is on me.

But notice where I say Theo "added" pieces to the puzzle, not built the entire contraption. Let's face it. Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, and Tim Wakefield were all "old-regime" signings, all big-name acquisitions or prospects developed by the Red Sox (Wakefield aside, obviously, and Lowe and Tek had been originally drafted by the Mariners but spent their formative years in the Boston system). 

And I'll give Epstein a tremendous amount of credit for hitting on Ortiz, Millar, Mueller, and Timlin. Ortiz became one of the most feared power hitters of the generation, Mueller delivered a batting title, and Millar developed into one of the most charismatic players to ever pass through Boston. And I won't play the game "well, what if they didn't pan out?" Because they did. Plain and simple. Of course....

It's been since the 2004 World Series that Epstein has lost the Midas Touch. Everything he touched hardly turned to gold. In fact most of it's turned to dust. Epstein's notable big-ticket moves heading into 2005 and beyond:

• Edgar Renteria, 4 years, $40 million
• Matt Clement, 3 years, $25 million
• Julio Lugo, 4 years, $36 million
• J.D. Drew, 5 years, $70 million
• John Lackey, 5 years, $82.5 million
• Carl Crawford, 7 years, $142 million

That's $395.5 million. For the hitters, they produced an average season of .262, 10 HR, 58 RBI, and a .726 OPS. I'll leave Clement out of this because he was never the same after he got drilled in the head in July 2005 vs. Tampa, but Lacky more than compensates for Clement's absence. 

And this doesn't even touch on the "scrap-heap" guys that Theo's tried to catch lightning in a bottle from again, such as John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rudy Seanez (again), J.T. Snow, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, etc. His trading record post-'04 is decent, with his most notable acquisitions being Coco Crisp, Jason Bay, Victor Martinez, and of course, Adrian Gonzalez last winter. Crisp contributed to the '07 title team, but all-in-all was a disappointment. Bay had a very good season and a half before Theo correctly let him walk, while Victor also produced a solid 1.5 years before leaving for Detroit, although the jury is out on that one.

As for Gonzalez: he had an amazing first half, hitting .354 with 17 HR and 77 RBI, leading the majors in two out of three categories (off a bit in HR). But he cooled considerably in the second half, still hitting a respectable .317/10/40, but his slugging percentage dropped over .100 points (.591 to .489) and played the "God" card after the season ended the way it did. I've got news for you Gonzo: I'm by no means religious, but God couldn't give a flying fuck about what happens in a Red Sox/Orioles game when there's shit going down on Wall Street and the Middle East the way it is. I hate politics too so I won't go there. But it's true. The bottom line: does Gonzalez have the mental toughness to handle Boston? Let's not forget his San Diego Padres also blew a sizable September lead last year to the Giants.

How much Epstein has to do with the minor league system is a question that I don't have an answer for, as I have no idea just how involved he is with the scouting. But it warrants mentioning that Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard have all been drafted under the Epstein regime.

Add it all together? I'll give Theo a B+ grade for his reign at General Manager here in Boston. The nucleus of the 2004 team was already very much in place, and much of that same nucleus remained for 2007. But instead of his high-price free agent acquisition paying dividends in 2007, it was more the Red Sox prospects who replaced the Pedro's, Lowe's, and Damon's of the world. I said it earlier, and I'll say it again: Epstein should never have to pay for a meal in Boston again. And I'll up my Pro Sports offer even further by giving him a free Julio Lugo T-shirt too. But he never completely mastered the art of free agency here. And if I'm not mistaken, there's a lengthy World Series drought over on the north side of Chicago at the moment. Good luck, Theo. It was a helluva run.

NFL Week 5 Picks

We're 25% through the NFL season already. Pretty crazy if you think about it, especially considering we didn't even know if there going to be a football season in the first place this time three months ago. What's even crazier?

There are two undefeated teams remaining. Both reside in the NFC North. Sure you saw the Packers coming. But the Detroit Lions? What the hell's going on in Detroit? The Tigers just beat the Yankees, the Red Wings look ready to rumble, and the NBA lockout will spare them from watching the Pistons this year! And as if none of that was enough, a bona fide contender in the DETROIT LIONS? Winners of exactly one playoff game since 1957? Basically the Chicago Cubs of the NFL. Calvin Johnson isn't just arguably the best wide receiver in the game right now; he is the best wide receiver in the game right now, with apologies to Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, and maybe Larry Fitzgerald. Really, it's not even close though.

He's caught 24 balls for 321 yards so far. Elite numbers, good enough for 96 catches and 1,284 yards over 16 games. But the stat that really jumps out for the one called "Megatron" is his touchdown total through four games: 8. Two per game. And that's exactly what he's done: caught two touchdown passes in every single game. That's a pace for 32 over a 16-game schedule. Nine more than Rand University's record of 23 from '07. Need I say more?

There's plenty else to pop off on through the first four weeks. The continued regression of Mark Sanchez? Marvelous. The epiphany that Donovan F. McNabb is washed up? Tragic. The Tony Romocoaster in Dallas, probably even more rickety than the Yankee Cannonball at Canobe Lake Park? Exhilarating. The Colts without Peyton Manning? Hilarious. The struggles of the "Dream Team" Eagles? Flabbergasting. The fact that I'm 26-34-4 picking games so far? Inexcusable. But I may have turned the corner last week by finishing 9-7, although I did blow my first "Lock of the Week" game when I picked the Eagles over the Bills.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 26-34-4
Locks of the Week: 3-1 (Eagles lost to Bills in Week 4)


Home team in CAPS

Eagles (-3) over BILLS


In a way, both teams were exposed last week. The Bills could have gotten off to a 4-0 start along with the Pack and Lions, and the whole George Costanza "Worlds are Colliding" thing would've gained more steam, but then they realized they are indeed the Buffalo Bills and laid an egg against the Bungles. Meanwhile, the Eagles blew a 20 point lead against the 49ers. Now granted, no one knows what to make of the 49ers yet. But uh....the game was in Philly. And uh....the Eagles are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, the 9ers will be lucky to win 6 games. 1-3 isn't necessarily a death kneel, but 1-4 in this season's NFC East? They'd be 5'11'' under. Eagles don't just need to make a statement today; they HAVE to make a statement.

STEELERS (-3) over Titans


For as much as I refuse to believe the Titans are for real, I refuse to believe even more that the Steelers are washed up. Even if Rashard bin Ladenhall isn't playing today. Think today is the day Chris Johnson gets going? Against the Steel Curtain? Good luck.

Chiefs (+1) over COLTS


A battle of 2010 division champions.....with a combined 1-7 record at the moment. Guess I'm taking the points.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Cardinals


They once said Kevin Kolb would succeed Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia and now.....this. For those who didn't see my tweet earlier in the week (follow me @levman90), McNabb, Kolb, and Vick, all of Philly Phame, have a combined 2-10 record so far this season #phillyphrauds.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Raiders


On a serious note, Al Davis was one of the single most important and entertaining owners in NFL history. There may never have been an AFL-NFL merger without him. The rap group NWA may not have had Raiders ties. The flagship NFL video game may not have been named after John Madden. Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, and Tom Cable may never have had the chance to be NFL coaches (wait, isn't Turner coaching an AFC contender down by San Diego right now?) Sebastian Janikowski may never have been a 1st round pick, while JaMarcus Russell almost certainly would not have gone no. 1 overall. For better or for worse, Al Davis defined the Raiders. He made them winners in the 70's and 80's, and later made a mockery of them for the past decade. But through his senile ways, he made Raider football a national enterprise. Just win, baby. He's arguably been dead since 2003, so I'm not too surprised by the news from this past week, but Rest In Peace indeed.

Oh and Houston's legit. Lock of the Week legit.

PANTHERS (+6.5) over Saints


Look at it this way: the Panthers haven't lost yet....against the spread (3-0-1). Cam Newton is already a damn good quarterback, but right now he's only as good as his (lack thereof) supporting cast (Steve Smith aside). So the Panthers will almost certainly cover in this emotional contest, as Saints kicker John Kasay, who along with Kerry Collins is the last active original Panther from 1995, makes his homecoming to Charlotte. And likely won't have any trouble kicking the ball in bounds (Kasay never gets enough credit for being a goat in Super Bowl XXXVIII against the Pats. How can a professional NFL kicker, in the Super Bowl no less, not keep a kickoff in-bounds? For the love of God, man).

JAGUARS (+2.5) over Bengals


For the second time, we see Blaine Gabbert head-to-head against a fellow member of the 2011 rookie QB class. Andy Dalton is no Cam Newton. I have nothing more to say on this game except "most likely candidates to fill the NFL's void in Los Angeles". Jacksonville is the clubhouse leader at -500, with San Diego at -300, the Raiders at even, the Vikings at +100, and the Bengals a decent long shot at +250. You realize they can't sell out their stadium, right?

GIANTS (-10) over Seahawks


I want to root for the Seahawks in this one just because Staszyzck and Hail Storm made the trip down to Giants Stadium for this one all the way from Rhody, but one has to be realistic. The Seahawks will go 0-8 on the road this year, and if it wasn't for their home stadium could damn well go 0-8 there too.

Buccaneers (+2.5) over 49ERS


I have absolutely no idea what to make of this one. The Bucs have to be the most silent of the 3-1 teams, with no statement victories, and really no marquee, full-60 minutes performances to speak of. On the flip side, you have the 49ers, also 3-1, buying in to Jim Harbaugh as Alex Smith's savior in Year 7. Since I have nothing else to say here, I guess I'll remind people that Smith was drafted 23 spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 draft. As in, Smith was no. 1, Rodgers was 24. Don't worry San Franciscans, Brett Favre is equally upset.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jets


Pats looked pedestrian at times vs. Oakland....Jets looked Pop Warnerian at times vs. Baltimore. Hard as it is to fathom the Jets losing 3 in a row.....wait why is it so hard? Just because they talk a lot? Again, what the hell have they done to earn that right? Going to the conference title game back-to-back years is enough? Ask Eagles fans how that worked out. Patriots in need of a statement game. Look no further than Foxboro, where I'll be in attendance along with fellow Hingham legends Rob Madden and Jake Magner.

Chargers (-3.5) over BRONCOS


I know I ripped on Norv Turner earlier but c'mon it's the Broncos here, how hard can it be? And quietly, Ryan Mathews is looking like the real deal in the San Diego backfield (4.7 yards per carry, should only continue to rise). Especially helps with Antonio Gates battling injuries anew.

Packers (-5.5) over FALCONS


Who's better than Green Bay right now? No one. Who's more of an enigma than the Falcons right now? Weren't they supposed to be Super Bowl contenders this year? They only beat Seattle by two points last week. Granted it was at Qwest Stadium, but still. For what it's worth, I played Madden against Frank last week, he as the Falcons. Matt Ryan posted a 1.9 QB rating on 4 of 17 passing for 52 yards, no scores, and 4 picks. Say Frank's Madden game is no good (which it isn't), but I'm pretty sure you could hand over the sticks to some Afghani kid with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and he could post higher than a 1.9 QB rating. Matt Ryan though? The jury is out on this kid. No question.

LIONS (-5) over Bears


Fitting spread here. 5 points. 5 wins for Detroit. In the words of Vince Lombardi, what the hell is goin' on out there?

The Puck Drops Tonight

Real quick NHL predictions here I spaced out on how much time I had left but hey have no fear the Experience is here.

Eastern Conference
1 Washington
2 Boston
3 Philadelphia
4 Buffalo
5 Pittsburgh
6 New Jersey
7 Tampa Bay 
8 NY Islanders
--------------------
9 NY Rangers
10 Winnipeg
11 Montreal
12 Carolina
13 Toronto
14 Florida
15 Ottawa

Western Conference
1 Vancouver
2 Chicago
3 Los Angeles
4 Detroit
5 Anaheim
6 St. Louis
7 San Jose
8 Nashville
-----------------
9 Columbus
10 Colorado
11 Minnesota
12 Edmonton
13 Calgary
14 Dallas
15 Phoenix

Eastern Finals: Bruins over Capitals
Western Finals: Kings over Canucks

2012 Stanley Cup Champions: Boston Bruins


Yeah yeah I picked the Bruins to repeat. Please tell me, why not? They return the same exact team save for Ryder, Recchi, and Kaberle. And while all three contributed during the Cup run, Ryder and Kaberle were rather useless during the regular season. The team is young as is, probably won the Cup before they were even ready to. This team is built to last. Timmy Thomas may not last forever, but that's why Tuukka Rask is here. Nothing more to say on that front.

And since we can't have Celtics-Lakers this year since there won't be an NBA season, why not start a new Boston-LA thing? Mike Richards was a huge pickup for the Kings, adding a great deal of depth for an already fairly deep squad in La-La Land.

That being said, Philly won't fall off the face of the Earth either despite trading Richards and Jeff Carter. The team is loaded with young talent already in Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk, a new goalie in Ilya Bryzgalov, and if they get anything out of Jaromir Jagr, watch out.

The Capitals will finally be legit contenders this year thanks to the addition of Tomas Voukn between the pipes.

The Rangers, much like the team they share Madison Square Garden with, will spend a lot of money, and then spend a long summer playing golf.

I like Alex Ovechkin to win the Hart Trophy (MVP), Zdeno Chara to win the Norris (defenceman), Ryan Miller to win the Vezina (goalie), Brayden Schenn to win the Calder (Rookie of the Year), Jack Capuano of the Islanders to win the Jack Adams (Coach of the Year), and Evgeni Malkin to win the Art Ross (scoring leader).

I wanted to put Winnipeg in the playoffs.  Didn't have the testicular fortitude. Islanders are my surprise team out of the East. I could go on about many other things but the banner's about to be raised here.....hey B's.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Quick picks this week, left a paper for the last minute and I'm gonna miss the early games as a result. Whatever. Pats don't have a 1:00 game til December. How sweet is that?

Last Week: 6-9-1

Season: 17-27-4

Locks of the Week: 3-0 (Packers over Bears in Week 3)

Home team in CAPS

Lions (+2.5) over COWBOYS

Tony Romo, meet Ndamukong Suh.

Saints (-9) over JAGUARS

Let's just say the Jacksonville offense isn't as quite as explosive as Houston's from a week ago.

EAGLES (-9.5) over 49ers

The Eagles aren't starting 1-3. Fact. Lock of the Week right here.

RAMS (+3) over Redskins

At 1-3, the Rams could take control of the NFC West race.

BROWNS (PK) over Titans

Starting to think that monster Chris Johnson breakout game may not happen. Especially with the loss of Kenny Britt. As if defenses weren't keying in on CJ2K enough.

Bills (-3) over BENGALS

It screams "letdown game" for the Bills. Fortunately, they're playing the Bengals.

Vikings (-3) over CHIEFS

Something's gotta give, right? At least Minnesota has been competitive.

Panthers (+6.5) over BEARS

Bears get screwed by lines, so why not?

TEXANS (-3.5) over Steelers 

We'll know a lot more about how legit the Texans are after this one.

Falcons (-5.5) over SEAHAWKS

Like the Eagles, Falcons can't start 1-3. Just won't happen.

Giants (-1.5) over CARDINALS

Even if Tuck doesn't play, they'll harass the hell outta Kolb.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Dolphins

Fortunately for South Florida residents, the Panthers open up this week, and the Heat are probably getting locked out all season. Wait how is any of that good news? At least the Heat won't be able to choke I guess.

PACKERS (-12) over Broncos

Packers haven't played a full 60 minutes yet. It's coming.

Patriots (-6) over RAIDERS

Patriots don't lose two in a row. Nnamdi Asomugha isn't in that secondary anymore. Thanks for playing.

RAVENS (-4.5) over Jets

Remember last season when these teams played? Baltimore won 10-9 even though it seemed like it was 50-9?

BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts

Curtis Painter is one scary looking dude.