Sunday, October 9, 2011

NFL Week 5 Picks

We're 25% through the NFL season already. Pretty crazy if you think about it, especially considering we didn't even know if there going to be a football season in the first place this time three months ago. What's even crazier?

There are two undefeated teams remaining. Both reside in the NFC North. Sure you saw the Packers coming. But the Detroit Lions? What the hell's going on in Detroit? The Tigers just beat the Yankees, the Red Wings look ready to rumble, and the NBA lockout will spare them from watching the Pistons this year! And as if none of that was enough, a bona fide contender in the DETROIT LIONS? Winners of exactly one playoff game since 1957? Basically the Chicago Cubs of the NFL. Calvin Johnson isn't just arguably the best wide receiver in the game right now; he is the best wide receiver in the game right now, with apologies to Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, and maybe Larry Fitzgerald. Really, it's not even close though.

He's caught 24 balls for 321 yards so far. Elite numbers, good enough for 96 catches and 1,284 yards over 16 games. But the stat that really jumps out for the one called "Megatron" is his touchdown total through four games: 8. Two per game. And that's exactly what he's done: caught two touchdown passes in every single game. That's a pace for 32 over a 16-game schedule. Nine more than Rand University's record of 23 from '07. Need I say more?

There's plenty else to pop off on through the first four weeks. The continued regression of Mark Sanchez? Marvelous. The epiphany that Donovan F. McNabb is washed up? Tragic. The Tony Romocoaster in Dallas, probably even more rickety than the Yankee Cannonball at Canobe Lake Park? Exhilarating. The Colts without Peyton Manning? Hilarious. The struggles of the "Dream Team" Eagles? Flabbergasting. The fact that I'm 26-34-4 picking games so far? Inexcusable. But I may have turned the corner last week by finishing 9-7, although I did blow my first "Lock of the Week" game when I picked the Eagles over the Bills.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 26-34-4
Locks of the Week: 3-1 (Eagles lost to Bills in Week 4)


Home team in CAPS

Eagles (-3) over BILLS


In a way, both teams were exposed last week. The Bills could have gotten off to a 4-0 start along with the Pack and Lions, and the whole George Costanza "Worlds are Colliding" thing would've gained more steam, but then they realized they are indeed the Buffalo Bills and laid an egg against the Bungles. Meanwhile, the Eagles blew a 20 point lead against the 49ers. Now granted, no one knows what to make of the 49ers yet. But uh....the game was in Philly. And uh....the Eagles are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, the 9ers will be lucky to win 6 games. 1-3 isn't necessarily a death kneel, but 1-4 in this season's NFC East? They'd be 5'11'' under. Eagles don't just need to make a statement today; they HAVE to make a statement.

STEELERS (-3) over Titans


For as much as I refuse to believe the Titans are for real, I refuse to believe even more that the Steelers are washed up. Even if Rashard bin Ladenhall isn't playing today. Think today is the day Chris Johnson gets going? Against the Steel Curtain? Good luck.

Chiefs (+1) over COLTS


A battle of 2010 division champions.....with a combined 1-7 record at the moment. Guess I'm taking the points.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Cardinals


They once said Kevin Kolb would succeed Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia and now.....this. For those who didn't see my tweet earlier in the week (follow me @levman90), McNabb, Kolb, and Vick, all of Philly Phame, have a combined 2-10 record so far this season #phillyphrauds.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Raiders


On a serious note, Al Davis was one of the single most important and entertaining owners in NFL history. There may never have been an AFL-NFL merger without him. The rap group NWA may not have had Raiders ties. The flagship NFL video game may not have been named after John Madden. Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, and Tom Cable may never have had the chance to be NFL coaches (wait, isn't Turner coaching an AFC contender down by San Diego right now?) Sebastian Janikowski may never have been a 1st round pick, while JaMarcus Russell almost certainly would not have gone no. 1 overall. For better or for worse, Al Davis defined the Raiders. He made them winners in the 70's and 80's, and later made a mockery of them for the past decade. But through his senile ways, he made Raider football a national enterprise. Just win, baby. He's arguably been dead since 2003, so I'm not too surprised by the news from this past week, but Rest In Peace indeed.

Oh and Houston's legit. Lock of the Week legit.

PANTHERS (+6.5) over Saints


Look at it this way: the Panthers haven't lost yet....against the spread (3-0-1). Cam Newton is already a damn good quarterback, but right now he's only as good as his (lack thereof) supporting cast (Steve Smith aside). So the Panthers will almost certainly cover in this emotional contest, as Saints kicker John Kasay, who along with Kerry Collins is the last active original Panther from 1995, makes his homecoming to Charlotte. And likely won't have any trouble kicking the ball in bounds (Kasay never gets enough credit for being a goat in Super Bowl XXXVIII against the Pats. How can a professional NFL kicker, in the Super Bowl no less, not keep a kickoff in-bounds? For the love of God, man).

JAGUARS (+2.5) over Bengals


For the second time, we see Blaine Gabbert head-to-head against a fellow member of the 2011 rookie QB class. Andy Dalton is no Cam Newton. I have nothing more to say on this game except "most likely candidates to fill the NFL's void in Los Angeles". Jacksonville is the clubhouse leader at -500, with San Diego at -300, the Raiders at even, the Vikings at +100, and the Bengals a decent long shot at +250. You realize they can't sell out their stadium, right?

GIANTS (-10) over Seahawks


I want to root for the Seahawks in this one just because Staszyzck and Hail Storm made the trip down to Giants Stadium for this one all the way from Rhody, but one has to be realistic. The Seahawks will go 0-8 on the road this year, and if it wasn't for their home stadium could damn well go 0-8 there too.

Buccaneers (+2.5) over 49ERS


I have absolutely no idea what to make of this one. The Bucs have to be the most silent of the 3-1 teams, with no statement victories, and really no marquee, full-60 minutes performances to speak of. On the flip side, you have the 49ers, also 3-1, buying in to Jim Harbaugh as Alex Smith's savior in Year 7. Since I have nothing else to say here, I guess I'll remind people that Smith was drafted 23 spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 draft. As in, Smith was no. 1, Rodgers was 24. Don't worry San Franciscans, Brett Favre is equally upset.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jets


Pats looked pedestrian at times vs. Oakland....Jets looked Pop Warnerian at times vs. Baltimore. Hard as it is to fathom the Jets losing 3 in a row.....wait why is it so hard? Just because they talk a lot? Again, what the hell have they done to earn that right? Going to the conference title game back-to-back years is enough? Ask Eagles fans how that worked out. Patriots in need of a statement game. Look no further than Foxboro, where I'll be in attendance along with fellow Hingham legends Rob Madden and Jake Magner.

Chargers (-3.5) over BRONCOS


I know I ripped on Norv Turner earlier but c'mon it's the Broncos here, how hard can it be? And quietly, Ryan Mathews is looking like the real deal in the San Diego backfield (4.7 yards per carry, should only continue to rise). Especially helps with Antonio Gates battling injuries anew.

Packers (-5.5) over FALCONS


Who's better than Green Bay right now? No one. Who's more of an enigma than the Falcons right now? Weren't they supposed to be Super Bowl contenders this year? They only beat Seattle by two points last week. Granted it was at Qwest Stadium, but still. For what it's worth, I played Madden against Frank last week, he as the Falcons. Matt Ryan posted a 1.9 QB rating on 4 of 17 passing for 52 yards, no scores, and 4 picks. Say Frank's Madden game is no good (which it isn't), but I'm pretty sure you could hand over the sticks to some Afghani kid with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and he could post higher than a 1.9 QB rating. Matt Ryan though? The jury is out on this kid. No question.

LIONS (-5) over Bears


Fitting spread here. 5 points. 5 wins for Detroit. In the words of Vince Lombardi, what the hell is goin' on out there?




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