Way back in 2005, the 49ers were holders of the first pick in the draft, coming off a moribund 2-14 campaign. Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey split snaps under center, Kevan Barlow was the leading rusher, and Brandon Lloyd (yes, the same Brandon Lloyd who's risen from the dead) was the team's third leading receiver, behind the immortal Eric Johnson and Cedrick Wilson. Patrick Willis didn't exist yet, so there wasn't much going on on defense, either.
Anyways, due to the incompetence of the Rattay's and Dorsey's of the world, the 9ers seemed a surefire bet to take a quarterback with that top overall pick. The only question was: Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers?
Okay so it wasn't quite Tom Brady being selected 199th. But you could say Rodgers has played with a little chip on his shoulder since taking over the Packers offense full-time in 2008. All he's done is won a Super Bowl (as well as its MVP honors), averaged 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions per season, averaged 4,131 yards through the air, and carries a very respectable 33-20 record as Green Bay's starter (27-10 since the start of 2009).
Alex Smith, in the meantime? Has played a full 16 games just once, complied a 24-32 record as a starter, and his TD/INT ratio against Rodgers' looks like this: 59/55 vs. 104/35. He's been labeled a bust on more than one occasion.
And sure, it's pretty clear the 49ers made a huge error in selected Smith over Rodgers on that fateful day. But who'd have thought that the two teams would potentially be on a collision course to square off in the NFC Championship Game some seven seasons later, with both quarterbacks still calling the shots? Smith has already lived about eight of his nine football lives in San Francisco, yet here he is, one more shot under Jim Harbaugh, and wouldn't you know it, the 49ers are a Tony Romo-comeback away from joining the Packers as the only 6-0 teams. Smith is completing 63% of his passes (a career high), has thrown just 2 interceptions (up against just 8 touchdowns, but still), and is on pace for 2,907 yards through the air. Not spectacular by any means, but a career high. And those two interceptions through six games? Brady-esque. Well, 2010 Brady.
Bottom line here: look at the 49ers schedule. Tell me 12-4 isn't realistic. They're on bye this week, and really only have three games remaining that would be considered "difficult": home vs. the Giants November 13, @ Baltimore on Thanksgiving night, and home vs. the Steelers in a Monday night clash December 19. Even if the 49ers do fall back to Earth and go, say, 3-7 the rest of the way, not all hope is lost for a Rodgers-Smith NFCCG clash; they do play in the NFC West, after all. On with the picks.
Last Week: 6-6-1
Season: 40-45-5
Locks of the Week: 4-2 (Eagles over Redskins in Week 6)
Home team in CAPS
Buccaneers (+1.5) over Bears (in London)
No true home team in this one, although the Bucs have the most London ties in the NFL with the Glazer family, who own the Bucs, also owning the Premier League's Manchester United. Last time Tampa played in London, in 2009, Brandon Meriweather had a pick-six for the Pats as they rolled, 35-7. Wouldn't ya know it, Meriweather is back for more at Wembley, this time as a member of the Bears. I just don't see him getting in the endzone this time around. And if that's not enough to pick Tampa in this one, then I don't know what is.
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Redskins
What does it say about your team when John Beck is coming in as the savior from a Rex Grossman disaster? Does it mean you should have kept Donovan McNabb? Or maybe just held on to Jason Campbell? Mark Brunell? Patrick Ramsey?
It's been a long decade at the quarterback position in our nation's capital.
BROWNS (-3) over Seahakws
Seneca Wallace revenge game! He still plays for the Browns, right? I wouldn't touch this game with a twenty-foot pole. Mediocrity never wins. And while we're here, is Peyton Hillis having the worst season ever by a Madden cover boy? I mean sure we've seen players get affected by the injury bug before after being on the cover, but come on. Strep throat? Really? I remember my first tampon.
Texans (+3) over TITANS
Even without Andre Johnson for at least another week, I'm thinking Houston finds a way to stay afloat. By the way, Chris Johnson: Judge Smails has something to say on behalf of all fantasy owners.
JETS (PK) over Chargers
The comedy in a war of words between Rex Ryan and Norv Turner? Can't even be described. Although I'll give Norv credit where credit is due: that was a great zinger back at Rexy boy.
DOLPHINS (+2) over Broncos
Matt Moore vs. Tim Tebow huh? Just imagine, Dolphins fans, it should be Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow. Not that it would make too much of a difference, but at least Orton's QB rating isn't 52.8.
Falcons (+5) over LIONS
Absolutely incredible story about Jerome Harrison and the trade-that-wasn't basically saving his life. But in reality, the Lions really can't run the ball at this point. Which is a shame because Harrison actually could've helped them this week. Does anyone remember when he ran for 286 yards, the third largest single-game total in NFL history, as a member of the Browns back in 2009? And he followed that up with 148 and 127 yard performances, only to be discarded in 2010 by Madden cover boy. What an interesting career so far, to say the least.
Chiefs (+3.5) over RAIDERS
If you're giving up two 1st round picks for Carson Palmer, leaving yourself without your top four picks in the following years draft, I know this much: you'd best be starting him right away. What a heist for Cincinnati. Sure they'll find a way to bungle the picks, but wow. Palmer's been overrated these past few years as it is anyways, and to get that kind of haul for him? Maybe Al Davis isn't dead yet after all.
Steelers (-4) over CARDINALS
One of two recent Super Bowl-rematches on the day (Saints-Colts being the other). One of two recent Super Bowl-rematches that won't even be close and difficult to watch, as well.
Rams (+14) over COWBOYS
I don't feel comfortable in any scenario in which Tony Romo is a two-touchdown favorite. I'm not saying St. Louis is going to win I'm just saying on what planet does it make sense to spot Tony Romo 14 points. It just doesn't make sense, right?
Packers (-10) over VIKINGS
I could make an easy pun using Christian Ponder, but that's the easy way out. Instead I'll just let the storyline speak for itself: the Vikings are trusting a rookie QB making his first NFL start against the defending Super Bowl champions. Man is this an easy week or what?
SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts
See Steelers/Cardinals comment. And by the way, if Tony Romo is good enough for a full 14 points, dammit shouldn't Drew Brees be too? Colts are also winless, in case you forgot. It is still weird.
Ravens (-9.5) over JAGUARS
Poor Blaine Gabbert. Pittsburgh and Baltimore back-to-back weeks? It's almost like the time Francona completely shattered the confidence of Cla Meredith back in 2005. You're damn right I just went there. No one other than maybe Frank or Ben Riley will know what I'm talking about but whatever. This is also my Lock of the Week.
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