But it's pretty clear that one potential match-up has more cache than any of the others. Combined.
I'm not really sure how New Yorkers feel about it, but I think I can speak for everyone in the greater New England area, and perhaps even nationwide outside of the Big Apple, that a rematch of Super Bowl XLII is what the people want.
A chance for Tom Brady to add another ring to his collection all these years later? Almost Derek Jeter-esque, winning all those rings early in his career, then adding another to further cement his legacy 9 years later (it'll be 7 for Brady if this is indeed the year). A chance to avenge the most scarring loss of his career, a loss that denied his claim to fame as the first and only quarterback of a 19-0 team? A chance to do it in Indianapolis, the home of Brady's foil, Peyton Manning? Brady's had some scarring losses in Indy in his career as well (2006 AFCCG and the infamous "4th and 2" game from '09). A chance to prove that the Patriots can win a Super Bowl without the help of secret cameras? Just kidding about that last one.
From Eli Manning's perspective, just as much is at stake. A chance to go the home field of his older brother, and win a championship in front of him? A chance to take a 2-1 lead on Peyton in Super Bowl rings? A chance to have more rings than guys named Favre or Brees, and as many as guys named Roethlisberger or Elway? A chance to finally escape the shadow of being Peyton's younger brother? I've always said that if Eli's last name with "Smith" or "Johnson", he'd receive far more credit than he currently gets. He can't escape the greatness that is his own last name. It's just like when Jesse brings home a good report card, it can't quite mount up to the high marks I pull in all the time.
Now, just because a Patriots-Giants Super Bowl is the most intriguing match-up, does it necessarily mean it's the most realistic? I mean the symmetry is there. One of my favorite bands (Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers) performed at Super Bowl XLII, a Patriots loss. One of my least favorite bands (Madonna) is performing at Super Bowl XLVI. Shouldn't that mean a Patriots win? I'll gladly take a forgettable halftime show over a forgettable game. On with the Championship Sunday Picks:
Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs: 4-4
Home team in CAPS
PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens
All sorts of red flags against the Ravens here. I'm optimistic about the Patriots here, if not downright confident. Joe Flacco has already beaten Tom Brady once in the post-season. Can he really be the only player in NFL history with two head-to-head wins over TB12 in January? And I'm not saying Joe Flacco is quite as atrocious as Mark Sanchez, but Brady losing in the post-season to mediocre QB's at home back-to-back seasons? Just don't see it.
Everyone likes to talk about how bad the Patriots defense is. It's by no means an elite unit, particularly against the pass. Statistically speaking, it's right in the middle of the road against the run (17th out of 32 in the regular season, at 117.1 yards per game). One key to success for the Pats today is simple: hold Rice under 100 yards. All four of Baltimore's losses came when he rushed for less than the century mark.
And when it comes to Flacco, he had only four games all season where he threw for more than 300 yards, and the most recent was way back on November 6. His arm isn't what the Patriots need to worry about today.
I think the most important factor of today's game, simply put, is this: the Ravens themselves don't trust Joe Flacco. At least not the defense. By now, you've all heard Ed Reed's comments from earlier in the week about how Flacco was "rattled" against Houston a week ago. Leading to some sort of conversation between Reed and Flacco, which has only fueled more speculation. Flacco didn't exactly come out and say that it was "no big deal" what Reed had said to the media. In a game of this magnitude, I'm riding the quarterback who's been there, done that, and most certainly doesn't have confidence issues.
Patriots 27, Ravens 17
Giants (+2) over 49ERS
I'm not taking anything away from Alex Smith and the 49ers here. I've been making fun of him all season long, even as recently as last week, about having the chance to bet against Alex Smith in the post-season. I'm done with that. Smith will never be Joe Montana or Steve Young in Niners lore, but he doesn't have to settle for Tim Rattay or Jim Druckenmiller either. Not after last weeks heroics. Smith's turnaround into a competent quarterback has been absolutely mesmerizing to watch during his 7th season in the league. Even moreso by the fact they've all taken place in the Bay Area. It's almost like watching Kwame Brown or Darko Milicic still kicking around in the NBA, only you realize that wait a second, Smith isn't a bust after all. The 49ers are where they are thanks to Patrick Willis and the defense, make no mistake about it, but the triumvirate of Smith, Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis are no slouches themselves.
So why the Giants here? Especially after the Niners have already won as an underdog at home? I don't think the world is quite ready for "Alex Smith" and "Super Bowl" in the same sentence. I mean all of the praise I just laid upon Smith. No question about it. I still don't think he's good enough to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback. And it's very true that the same things could have been said about Eli Manning to a degree not too far back, but what's standing in Smith's way is a vastly improved version of Eli. That Giants defensive front is every bit as foreboding as it was during the 2007 Super Bowl run, just a tad more than the Saints D threw at Smith a week ago. And by a tad I mean infinitely. We're gonna be partyin' like it's Super Bowl XLII all over again.
Bonus factoid: while not only Eli Manning and Alex Smith are former no. 1 overall picks playing in this game, so too is David Carr, the no. 1 pick of the Texans back in 2002. Now THAT resembles Darko still kickin' it.
Giants 24, 49ers 19
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