Finally. Playoffs? You kidding me? Already? Not to mention Bruins-Canucks this afternoon as the warmup?
Anyways, check out my NFL pre-season predictions. Of the 12 playoff teams I predicted to play into January, 8 will indeed play on. My Super Bowl pick (Patriots vs. Saints) is still very much in play. The only team I predicted to make the playoffs that and failed to do so in an embarrassing fashion would be the Rams, who stumbled to 2-14, taking a major step backwards in their progress from 2010. The Eagles, the lone Final 4 team I have missing from the post-season, at least made a respectable run in December to almost come within range of the playoffs. I did alright in terms of all that stuff.
Of course, I finished 5 games below .500 for my weekly picks. 119-124-13. I got down big early and it's just so hard to come back against the spread in this game. I did post back-to-back respectable weeks to end the season (9-7, 8-7-1), but all for naught.
Fortunately, the playoffs are a shot at redemption. 11 total games. I win 8 of them, I can catch the .500 mark. Easier said than done. But it all starts today in a wild-card weekend with no shortage of intrigue. I'm going 11-0 this post-season. And in terms of who I like for the Super Bow? I mean why not stick to my pre-season pick of Pats over Saints? Done and done.
TEXANS (-4) over Bengals
Neither team comes into this one exactly lighting the world on fire. The Bengals went 3-5 in the second half after starting the season 6-2, while the Texans have lost their last three games. Within both cold streaks, there are some troubling trends. The Bengals three wins, for example, were against the Browns, Rams, and Seahawks (combined record: 13-35). The Texans, while they did clinch the AFC South prior to the losing streak, have lost to a string of non-playoff teams, low-lighted by a loss to the Colts in Week 16.
Dig deeper, and notice that both teams are starting rookie QB's. Andy Dalton has been superb for the Bengals, no question, and if not for Cam Newton, would be a shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans, however, had no plans of relying on a rookie QB at all this season, much less in their first playoff game in franchise history. To make matters worse, said quarterback, TJ Yates, is a little banged up, and his current backup? Jake Delhomme. You may remember Delhomme's last post-season game for the Panthers in the 2008 Divisional Round: 17-34, 205 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT in a 33-13 home loss to eventual NFC Champ Arizona.
So seemingly, the scales tip in the Bengals favor there. Not so fast. Houston, under Wade Phillips, has gone from a laughingstock defensively, to not just an improved unit, but the number 2 ranked defense in the entire NFL. The Texans also boast the number 2 ranked rushing attack in the NFL, with perhaps no better backfield duo than Arian Foster and Ben Tate right now.
For what it's worth, the Texans last win was against the Bengals on December 11. Throw in the fact that it's the first time Houston has hosted a playoff game since the days of Warren Moon and the Oilers, I think there's a legitimate homefield advantage in play for the Texans. The Bengals will remain winless in January since 1991
Houston 28, Cincinnati 17
SAINTS (-10.5) over Lions
Any time you have a duel looming between two 5,000 yard passers, you know you're in for a treat. It doesn't take an NFL historian to figure out that this is the first ever playoff game where the opposing quarterbacks have combined for more than 10,000 yards passing in the regular season. The scariest part is that it may not be the only game of it's kind this post-season, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves.
The Saints haven't lost at home all season, and haven't lost a game overall since October 30 (one of their two "WTF?" losses this season, to St. Louis. The other being Tampa Bay). In their six games since their bye week, they have topped 40 points four times. They scored "only" 31 points against the Lions in a Sunday night showdown in Week 13, and it definitely warrants mentioning that Ndamukong Suh sat that one out with a case of the suspensionitis.
Neither team can run the ball worth a damn, making that a wash. Calvin Johnson is the best receiver on either team, but you'd have to say the next six spots go to the Saints (and that includes TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles). The Saints have "been there, done that". The Lions are three years removed from going 0-16. It was a season of great progress in Detroit, and they are definitely positioned to be contenders for years to come, but no one, and I mean no one is hotter than Drew Brees right now. This isn't last year's Saints team that failed in the wild-card round. It's too bad for the Lions, who definitely could have beat the Giants had they not lost to Green Bay last week.
New Orleans 38, Detroit 24
GIANTS (-3) over Falcons
Two teams most definitely guilty of identity fraud. Who are these guys? Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback or not? Can you win a playoff game with Matt Ryan? The up-and-down play of each quarterback has dictated the up-and-down seasons both teams have had, the strange routes to the post-season. The Giants at one point lost 4 in a row before sweeping the Cowboys to take control of the NFC East, having it of course come right down to Week 17. The Falcons last three games have defined them perfectly: a 45-16 shellacking at the hands of the Saints, sandwiched between Atlanta dishing out pain on two of the pathetic Florida teams (Jacksonville, Tampa), putting up 41 and 45 points, respectively.
What this one comes down to, for me anyways, is that like the Saints, the Giants have a "been there, done that" trait to rely on. We all remember their run through Super Bowl XLII. Eli Manning, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora, who all played an integral part of ending the 19-0 dreams of the Patriots, are three of the more important players still on the roster. Getting after the passer and throwing the ball will certainly go a long way in the Giants catching fire and going on another sort of magical run.
What this game may come down to is the running game. On paper, the tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw sounds pretty good. But uh....they're kind of dead last in the NFL in rushing. This should be a major red flag, but at the end of the day, they're playing this one in the Meadowlands, not in the Georgia Dome. I have faith that Eli can make plays through the air with Victor Cruz and Co. to win this one and not have to rely heavily on the running game. I'm not saying the Giants are about to go on another 2007 type run, but crazier things have happened. Like that 2007 run.
Giants 24, Falcons 20
Steelers (-8.5) over BRONCOS
I know that Rashard bin Ladenhall isn't running the ball. I know that Ryan Clark isn't playing. I know that Ben Roethlisberger is gimpier than a Vietnam veteran at this point. I know the game's in Denver. I know the Steelers "look old" in many facets of the game. I know the whole "Tebow Magic" thing is in play. I know that literally everyone in the country is picking in the Steelers. Nobody believes in the Broncos.
And to be honest, I was ready to buck the trend. I was ready to defy logic and pick the Broncos. I was ready to put faith in Tim Tebow despite his 41% completion percentage during the Broncos' three-game losing streak. And then I saw the headline "Brady Quinn splits first-team snaps with Tebow". I would have been more encouraged had the headline read "Elway leaving front office duties to return to quarterbacking the Broncos". Plus Pittsburgh is the number 1 ranked D.
Pittsburgh 21, Denver 11
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