2011 NFL Preview, Part II

Here's Part I if you missed it.

This afternoon, I separated the league into two halves, basically. The teams with no shot at winning the Super Bowl, and the teams with at least a puncher's chance at the crown. Within each half, there were some clear divisions as well. I ranked the top 16 teams, but I really only feel like 6 teams have a shot at being "Super" this year: the Packers, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Saints, and Falcons. And within the bottom 16 teams, I mentioned that there's definitely reasons for optimism in locales such as Carolina and Cleveland, and to an even greater extent Detroit and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, it's the good 'ol Bungles in Cincinatta, and the buzzards continue to circle the wagons in Buffalo. How will it all pan out ultimately? A little something like this:

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC Wild-cards: Chargers, Ravens

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
NFC Wild-cards: Falcons, Giants

AFC Wild-Card round: Ravens over Texans, Chiefs over Chargers
AFC Divisional round: Patriots over Ravens, Steelers over Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Steelers

NFC Wild-Card round: Eagles over Giants, Falcons over Rams
NFC Divisional round: Saints over Falcons, Eagles over Packers
NFC Championship Game: Saints over Eagles

Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots 20, Saints 17; MVP: Tom Brady

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Defensive Player of the Year: Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans
Comeback Player of the Year: Tiki Barber.....just kidding. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Eagles

Why the Patriots? Because I'm a Patriots fan? No doubt it makes it easier for me to pick them. But at the same time, why not? There's no doubt they're a better, more well-rounded team than last year's 14-2 squad who's season ended so painfully at the hands of the loathed Jets. So there's the whole "chip on the shoulder" factor. I alluded to that game as a doppelganger to the 2006 AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Colts a few months back. The Patriots lost to their bitter rivals on the biggest stage possible, and what happened next? They set the NFL roster move pages on fire, importing Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, among others. Although held back by the lockout this time, the Patriots reacted in similar fashion, bringing Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, and Brian Waters on board. Like in 2007, some moves will boom, others will bust. But you've got to at least applaud the effort of the Patriots to get back to the top of the NFL world, to the status of Super Bowl Champions where shockingly they haven't been since 2004.

I'm not saying they're gonna go set the world on fire like in 2007 and blow teams out 38-14 every week. And  I'm not even going to pretend there's a chance this team could redeem the '07 squad and finish 19-0. But when you look at the roster, top to bottom, the Patriots are loaded with depth everywhere you look. The Gronkowski/Hernandez combination is another year older, another year more lethal. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead have more help in the backfield coming in rookie Stevan Ridley. Nate Solder will help spell Matt Light at left tackle. Leigh Bodden returns to start alongside Devin McCourty at corner after missing all of '10. Can you think of a more formidable duo along the defensive line than Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth? Or at the very least, a bigger duo? Jerod Mayo led the league in tackles a year ago. And oh by the way, they have the reigning NFL MVP in Tom Brady.

So the Pats made some interesting moves in cutting pro bowler-Brandon Meriweather and Darius Butler (after just two seasons) last week. I have no problem with either move. Could Meriweather look like a combination between Ronnie Lott and Troy Polamalu at times? Absolutely. But those times were much fewer and farther between when than when he acted like a high school safety who just happened to hit really hard with his head. And Butler was in Belichick's dog house, and never coming out. Just ask Doug Gabriel how that worked out.

Bottom line, I'm expecting the Patriots to be just the latest Boston team to cue the duckboats some time in early February. And the Red Sox will most likely assume an all-too familiar role of "Boston team with the longest championship drought". Hey, four years is almost 21.5 times less than 86.

Here are some other predictions on what I expect around the NFL this season:

• Why the Saints in the NFC? Much like the Patriots, they've got to have a chip on their shoulders about the way last season ended. Losing to a sub-.500 team as 10.5 point favorites in the playoffs? That's how you defend your Super Bowl title? New Orleans is going to feel motivated they weren't just a one-hit wonder like "Dirty Water" by the Standells. Drew Brees is primed to cut back on his interceptions and approach 5,000 yards passing again. Mark Ingram looks like the real deal in the backfield so far, and it can't be understated what a good running game will do for a good passing game. The defense is still in good enough shape from the 2009 title run, and with Sean Payton pressing the buttons, you've got to like their chances.

• Sorry, Sanchize, the AFC is too deep this year. You and your coach can just schedule that fight you were talking about for halftime of your Christmas Eve date with the Giants, when your crosstown rival will officially eliminate you from post-season contention. 8-8 for the Jets this year. Eight and eight.

• I've been on record all off-season for saying that the Colts are not yet done. That with Peyton Manning in charge, they'll be a playoff team no matter what. I keep hearing the reports the past few weeks that Manning's gonna miss the season opener, blah blah blah, his streaks in jeopardy. Bullshit, I'm thinking. We're talking about Peyton Manning here. I feel the same way about Peyton Manning that Wes Mantooth feels about Ron Burgundy: "At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!" This guy isn't gonna miss a start.....then this morning happens. Boom. I'm way more bitter than I should be because Peyton's a member of the Avengers this year. Shouldn't I be happy that the Colts, pretty much the Patriots version of Michael Myers, are finally starting to fade away? No Manning, no chance. And he'll be out more than just one week. 

• Jamaal Charles will rush for over 1,700 yards, and add on another 700 receiving, making him a no-brainer for the league's Offensive Player of the Year. He's the real deal, as are the Chiefs, who weren't just a flash in the pan last year. They've been building that ship right over there at Arrowhead for the past few years now. That defense featuring Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, and Tyson Jackson is just scary. Oh I just remembered, Scott Pioli's building that team. No wonder they're coming along so well.

• Raiders, really? They finally get a semblance of "momentum" (by finishing .500 for the first time since 2002), go ahead and fire their head coach, let not only their best player, but one of the best defensive players in the whole damn league walk (Asomugha), and even though I'm nitpicking here, their only reliable passing-game target walk (Zach Miller). It's easy to nitpick if it's the Raiders though. Just win, baby!

• Speaking of Asomugha, he'll slide into Philly prettay, prettay well alongside Asante Samuel. Just as long as it's not the 4th quarter of a potentially historic Super Bowl clinching defensive stand. No, I'm not bitter. Didn't they get Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade?

• The Eagles will win a Super Bowl at some point during this Michael Vick/Nnamdi Asomugha era. By the time I graduate college, let's say. And yes I know that gives them some extra time.

• Vince Young might be the best backup QB in the NFL. Think about it. And isn't he Vick Lite anyways? The pairing works perfectly. Young will get a chance to start in the NFL again some day. And while we're still on Philly, Ronnie Brown is a great backup to LeSean McCoy, and the addition of "the other" Steve Smith (Giants) adds depth to an already electrical crop of receivers. I'd say losing the NFC Championship would still be meeting expectations this season.

• Patriot milestones: Ochocinco will catch over 70 passes, go for about 1,100 yards, and 6 or 7 TD's. Green-Ellis won't quite reach 1,000 yards again thanks to the added depth in the backfield, but will again surpass double-digits in the touchdown department. Albert Haynesworth: 6 sacks on D.

• Ochocinco's old team, the Cincinnati Bengals, will finish with the worst record in the NFL, 2-14. I'm aware their first five opponents are Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.

• The Patriots will go 14-2 again, posting the top record in the league.

• We haven't seen the last of Randy Moss OR Terrell Owens. You forgot about the second one, didn't ya?

• Blaine Gabbert was probably going to start at some point this season for Jacksonville anyways. Thanks to Luke McCown being named starter, that time is much more likely to be in October than in December. Way to go, Del Rio. I was ready to put Jacksonville in my "top half" rankings and leave out Dallas instead. Thanks a lot.

• First coach fired: I mean, shouldn't it be Marvin Lewis? What exactly has he done to earn the right to keep coaching in the NFL? Since 2003, (Lewis's first on the job), the Bengals have gone 60-67-1, including 0-2 in the post-season. Sure, the Bengals have had only two terrible seasons under Lewis (2008 and 2010, 4-11-1 and 4-12 respectively) but c'mon, when is being average every year enough? Since it won't be Lewis, might as well go with Tony Sparano down in South Florida with the Dolphins. Although if the Chargers get off to a slow start, here's looking at you, Norv.

• Aaron Rodgers will lead the league in both passing yardage (4,812) and touchdown passes (37).

• Jamaal Charles will lead the league in rushing yards (1,768).

• Michael Turner will lead the league in rushing touchdowns (15).

• Greg Jennings will lead the league in receiving yardage (1,515).

• Antonio Gates will lead the league in receiving touchdowns (13).

• Cam Newton will throw more touchdown passes than interceptions, and the Panthers will be a sneaky-good 5-11. The NFC South is the toughest division in football, no questions asked. I wouldn't want to play the Panthers in Week 17 with something on the line.

Alright, I've rambled long enough. It's great to be back on the blogging scene, but more importantly, it's great to have NFL football less than 24 hours away. Enjoy!