Last Week: 4-10-2
Locks of the Week: 1-0 (Patriots over Dolphins)
Home team in CAPS
Chiefs (+9) over LIONS
How exactly can you be "free falling" after just one game? And sure, the Chiefs laid arguably the biggest egg of any team, period, last weekend, contender or pretender. And they lost their top defensive player for the season in Eric Berry.
But we're talking about the Lions here. I'm wary to take a Lions team that's been labeled with those expectations I was talking about earlier with the Browns. And sure, there's plenty more talent in the Motor City than in the Dawg Pound. But you realize neither of these teams have ever made a Super Bowl appearance? And while the Lions did win their opener vs. Tampa, they hardly looked dominant. If Jahvid Best is getting the ball 21 times, he should top 72 yards, shouldn't he?
The Lions may prevail in this one, and I realize it's a sin to take an underdog unless you think they can win outright, but this feels like it's coming down to a Jason Hanson field goal late in the 4th.
BILLS (-4) over Raiders
Buffalo scored more points, while giving up fewer, than the Patriots did in Week 1. For what it's worth. And now they get to play that monstrosity of an organization in the Raiders, who barely beat the Broncos in the Monday night opener. In other words, the team who's fan base is openly clamoring for Tim Tebow.
Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS
Philadelphia Eagles Quarterbacks, circa 2009, in Week 1 of the 2011 season:
Mike Vick (Eagles): 14-32, 187 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 11 carries, 97 yards
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): 18-27, 309 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Donovan McNabb (Vikings): 7-15, 39 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
I rest my case.
SAINTS (-7) over Bears
Possibly the toughest game of the week. A million different factors in play here. Brian Urlacher with the "Brett Favre Rule", playing a game so shortly after the death of a parent (we remember Favre's stat line the night after his father's passing back in 2003). You also have the Saints trying to avoid an 0-2 start in the NFC South, where weirdly enough, an 0-2 start may not even be a death blow based on some of the other Week 2 opponents their divisional foes are playing.
And true, Marques Colston is out for this one, and the next several, with a broken collarbone. But he's missed time before, and the Saints possess some of the best depth at receiver in the NFL. The Saints were a play away from taking the defending champs to OT in the season opener. And Chicago looked almost too impressive in their unraveling of the Falcons. It's a big spread, but I think the Saints Brees by in this one.
Ravens (-6.5) over TITANS
If the Titans can't beat Luke McCown after one week of his being named starter, good luck. And I might mean Andrew Luck.
COLTS (+2) over Browns
I know, I know. The Colts being underdogs at home to anyone seems like a misprint. But this isn't 2002-2010 anymore. The "free falling" tag definitely can apply to the Colts through one week, if only because they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of all-time with Kerry Collins. I repeat, they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of ALL-TIME with KERRY COLLINS. And it's not like Edgerrin James is in the backfield to take the pressure off.
Having said all that....
The Browns are favored after their stinkbomb last week? They lost (at home, mind you) to the Cincinnata Bungles. Madden cover boy couldn't even get to 60 yards rushing. Colt McCoy completed under 50% of his throws. They even allowed Bruce Gradkowski to throw a touchdown pass on them. On principles alone, I have to take the Colts and the points on this one.
JETS (-9) over Jaguars
A Luke McCown-quarterbacked team cannot and will not start 2-0. It just can't happen. It's a physical impossibility. Ron Burgundy would say, it's science. Men just have larger brains than women. Luke McCown's just don't have 2-0 starts, even if it means that Mark Sanchez will. Whatever. Jets at home, they've gotta play a better game than they did against dem Cowboys, right?
STEELERS (-14.5) over Seahawks
You know how sometimes you look at a college football line and wince when you see that a team like Florida is favored by 35 points or something ridiculous against a team like Southwest Montana Institute of Technology? This game could have a line like that, and I think I'd still take the Steelers. I don't want to hear about how old they are, or the "Super Bowl Loser" curse either. At least not this week. Because the Seahakws are an abomination to the National Football League. Marshawn Lynch, 33 yards against the 49ers, really? And back to the age thing, I'm pretty sure the Steelers could bring back Rod Woodson and Mean Joe Greene and they'd still get the best of Tarvaris Jackson.
It's a ballsy call with the spread being so high, but it isn't at all. This is my Week 2 Lock of the Week.
REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals
If a rookie playing in his first ever NFL game can throw for 422 yards against the Cardinals secondary, what can Rex Grossman do? And I'm not trying to make Grossman sound elite or anything here, but I'm completely serious. He survived the Giants D, now he's gotta face this? Is he finally blooming into the quarterback we all thought he would become when the Bears took him in the 1st round back in 2003?
No. But the mirage will continue at least for another week. For crying out loud, the 'Skins coulda held onto McNabb and even he might throw for 100 yards against the Cards.
Packers (-10.5) over PANTHERS
Quick fantasy tangent: the Avengers drafted Peyton Manning in round 2 this year, back in early August, when it still appeared he'd be able to play a full 16 game season. Took Matt Cassel as a backup, because hey, you can totally survive one week of Matt Cassel if the other weeks are Peyton. Just for the hell of it, I picked up Cam Newton in the 13th round, partially so I could say I had two former Heisman winners on my squad (Mark Ingram being the other). Never thought I'd actually get around to playing Newton, much less hanging on to him once an injury to one of my starters occurred.
To spare you the gory details, I started Matt Cassel in place of Manning last week, with the logic being "there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards in his NFL debut". For the first time ever, the Avengers are in real danger of missing the post-season.
Back to reality: there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards again this week. Against the Packers. I'm not discrediting Newton's record mark, but I'm pretty sure he faced better secondaries in the SEC last year than Arizona. And if Scam can throw for that kind of yardage and the Panthers still lose, Go Pack Go.
Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS
Couldn't have asked for a better Week 2 match-up if you're a Cowboys fan, because no matter how many mistakes Tony Romo makes in this one, he's going up against Alex Smith. And the Cowboys really should have won that game, against a legitimate playoff team, by the way.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers
I won't be at Gillette, but I'm listening to Tom Brady and getting lubed up for this one. With Peyton Manning out, Philip Rivers assumes his spot on the active-QB Mount Rushmore along with Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. The over/under for this one is 54, but it doesn't specify if that's for the two teams combined or just for the Patriots. Regardless, I'll take the Pats and that "over" thing.
Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS
I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "hey, if Chad Henne can throw for 416 yards against the Patriots, doesn't that mean he'll be able to throw for 746 against the Texans?"
The Texans secondary is still clearly their Achilles's Heel, but the signing of Jonathan Joseph definitely gives them some street cred over the unit that ranked dead last against the pass in 2010. And Houston can't afford to blow their chance this year. All of their opponents in the AFC South have a list of problems that dwarfs in comparison to the problems facing the Obama White House. I'm only slightly exaggerating.
With or without Arian Foster, this Ben Tate dude seems to know what he's doing. Texas needs one legit football team; why not the Texans?
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bengals
I'd rather write a report about why the Marshall Islands could take down the Federated States of Micronesia if they ever decided to invade their Oceania neighbors.
Eagles (-3) over FALCONS
Vick's already been back to Atlanta once, granted when Donovan F. McNabb was still calling the shots, but still.
Bad timing for Matt Ryan to try and get in a groove with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Tony Gonzalez could have a big game for Atlanta, unless they decide to stick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on him. I still think the Falcons will be okay after an 0-2 start, because like I said earlier, it's entirely possible for every NFC South team to lose again this week.
But the Eagles were far from that dominant "dream team" status in beating the Rams a week ago, and even though I've been mocking the dream team stuff, if they want to get past the Packers, they gotta start somewhere. I think this could be the week, on national TV in prime time, that we get to find out what to really make of Philly.
GIANTS (-7) over Rams
Tough line because of all the injuries on both teams. It sounds like Sam Bradford is going to play for St. Louis, and even though Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola won't be out there, I still think he'll be able to keep St. Louis in this one. But the Rams aren't exactly used to playing on Monday Night Football in
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