Collapse of the Century

All of a sudden that 2-10 start doesn't seem so pathetic. In fact, maybe it can be looked upon as a realization. That this Red Sox team was indeed fatally flawed from the get-go, and the success they enjoyed May-August was a mirage.

To an extent that logic is completely ridiculous. Jacoby Ellsbury is definitely a top 3 MVP candidate right now and if they some how hold on here, it's his to lose. If Adrian Gonzalez's expectations were for him to be a 10 out of 10 coming in here, he's certainly been a solid 9. David Ortiz is having his best season in years, and  Dustin Pedroia has been challenging the numbers of his own MVP season from 2008. Heck even Marco Scutaro is flirting with .300.

But beyond those positives, this team was being held together by string, not steel. Does anyone realize that Tim Wakefield has the best ERA of any Red Sox starter in the month of September (5.25; minimum 4 starts)? Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, our so-called "aces", have posted 5.48 and 5.96 ERAs, respectively. And I'm not even going to breach the subject of John Lackey.

After Papelbon and the surprising Alfredo Aceves, the bullpen has been a complete disaster. Daniel Bard got off to a terrible start, seemingly shook it off, but has since regressed to the point that re-signing Papelbon has got to be a top priority for this team in the off-season. I'd say priority number one, but.....how can you have faith in anyone in the rotation right now?

I'll give Lester the benefit of the doubt, he's having a bad month. I keep trying to figure out what's wrong with Josh Beckett, and it's damn near impossible. His overall numbers on the season are terrific. Opponents hitting .211 off him, accumulating a measly .608 OPS. His WHIP of 1.03 is excellent. 2.89 ERA? Would be a career-best, along with every other statistic I just rattled off. The only even slightly damning number is his ERA in the 6th inning: 4.32. Not great, but not terrible either per se.

What does it mean for Beckett though? His numbers through the first five innings of games look like this: 3.90, 2.10, 0.90, 3.03, 2.86. So if he gets through the first, chances are he'll give you five quality innings. But is that enough? Especially with the bullpen in the flux that it's in? Beckett is already 31, believe it or not, and he's definitely put on a few pounds recently, to say the least. Is this September a sign of an imminent decline?

Because if so, the Red Sox are screwed here. Lester will be the clear no. 1 heading into next spring training, with either a sketchy Beckett or a health-concern Buchholz to follow. After that are we really going to have to talk ourselves into another three years of John Lackey? Is Tim Wakefield coming back for a 17th season with the Red Sox? 

Theo Epstein, if he even lasts this collapse, can't make any panic moves either. John Lackey was a panic move just because the Yankees won the World Series after signing CC and Burnett. Carl Crawford was a panic because the Red Sox won "only" 89 games with half their team in the infirmary. 

All I'm saying here is that this collapse, troubling as it may be, might really just be channeling Dennis Green's "They are who we thought they were!" rant. The Red Sox had great lineups every year almost between 1919 and 2003. Only once they started to get pitching in place, in 2004 and 2007, did they crack the World Series curse. Even if this team does back into the post-season, whether it's Texas or Detroit awaiting them, it's gonna be a quick and painless killing. Which is funny because of how painful all of September has been, with this 6-19 business and all.

 

But just by getting to the post-season, regardless in which manner, is better than being remembered as the team that blew a 9-game wild-card lead in September. The 2007 Mets, 1964 Phillies, and those 1978 Red Sox hopefully stay in a league of their own.