Okay so that last one was about as easy to predict as the seasons changing from summer to fall this past week. Other than that? It sure ain't last year anymore. But after two weeks, there's definitely some assumptions that can be made to distinguish 2011 from 2010.....
- The Chiefs, having already lost their best offensive AND defensive player to injury, are already looking towards getting Andrew Luck.
- Peyton Manning should be an MVP candidate for the sole reason of how the Colts go from at the very least a wild-card contender to staring 4-12 right in the face without him.
- The Buffalo Bills are leading the NFL in offense through two weeks (39.5 ppg), and to be honest, just might hang around in the AFC wild-card picture.
- The Seattle Seahawks won't be defending their 7-9 division title from a year ago.
- Tom Brady is even better than last year, when he won an MVP.
- The "trick or treat" moniker once given to former Celtics great Tony Allen? Time to hand the reigns to the Tony on America's Team, Tony Romo.
- Mike Tolbert is leading the league in receptions (17) through two weeks. Last year, he didn't haul in his 17th catch until Week 11.
- Steve Smith (Panthers) has 334 receiving yards, to lead the league. Last year, he didn't record his 334th yard until Week 10.....
Those are eight elite facts just to prove how crazy things get in the NFL from season-to-season. I like to pride myself on being good at picking winners of these games, but I've been stumbling worse than the Red Sox coming out of the gate here. But it's a new week. Lez go:
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 11-18-3
Locks of the Week: 2-0 (Steelers over Seahawks in Week 2)
Home team in CAPS
BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers
It's hard to fathom the Bengals situation. They're in Year 8 of Marvin Lewis Error Era. They're trusting a rookie QB (Andy Dalton) and a rookie WR (A.J. Green) to lead the offense. Their top rusher (Cedric Benson) spent some time in jail a few weeks back. WR Jerome Sampson just got busted for having two pounds of pot marijuana delivered to his house. And yet....
They're 1-1 so far, could easily be 2-0. They've got the 49ers this week, followed by the Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks, and Titans before they face the Steelers in Week 10. Granted, the Bengals are in the same tier as most of those teams, so it's never safe to pencil in wins and losses. Things continue to bounce their way? Is 6-2 out of the realm of possibility? Cut to Carson Palmer nodding vigorously.
PANTHERS (-3) over Jaguars
If Cam Newton can throw for 432 against the Packers secondary....
VIKINGS (+3) over Lions
Must-win for Minnesota to keep their season alive. And the Lions looked just a little too good against the Chiefs last week. Call it a Jerry Seinfeld "Even Steven" game. Plus, Detroit hasn't won in the Metrodome since Barry Sanders was donning a Lions uni. Warrants mentioning.
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Chris Johnson is due for a marquee performance to remind people that he's at least still in the conversation for "best running back alive". No more of this 24 carries, 53 yards nonsense. Denver should be the perfect remedy.
Dolphins (+1.5) over BROWNS
If Peyton Hillis were playing, I'd stick with the Browns. Going to be real interesting to see how the Dolphins use Reggie Bush in this one. Think about the running backs taken in the first two rounds of the 2006 draft. Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Addai, LenDale White, and Maurice Jones-Drew.
At best, you'd rank Bush no higher than third on that list, right? Personally I'd have him fourth even below Addai. And yet no one has ever really used the 'bust' label on Bush, who was the no. 2 overall pick. And if you recall the uproar the Texans got after they chose Mario Williams over Bush at 1....
Obviously it didn't effect the Saints, who won a Super Bowl with Bush on the roster, but even then he was really more a utility type, with Pierre Thomas shouldering most of the carries. And now you see Darren Sproles lighting it up in the Saints backfield, and they did use a 1st rounder on Mark Ingram this spring too. Last week Bush received only six carries. Unless that changes significantly this week, Bush is undoubtedly on the trajectory for bustdom more than ever before.
EAGLES (-8) over Giants
Sounds like Vick's good to go. Bad news for the banged up Giants secondary, who looked god-awful against the Rams last week. Really a no-brainer here.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Texans
Hey, it's the Mario Williams vs. Reggie Bush Bowl! Oh that's right we just talked about how Bush isn't even on the Saints anymore. Charley Casserly was crucified for that pick and eventually stepped down as Texans general manager as a result. I'm guessing he's modest about it, but I'd be playing that "Told you so!" card to no end.
Texans still have a mediocre secondary though, and it's the Saints passing game we're talking about here. Houston can afford a loss though in the suddenly sullen AFC South.
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
I love the Bills. Love the whole angle that it's a team of nobodies. Really, where the hell did David Nelson come from? Who's this Fred Jackson from arena ball? Ryan Fitzpatrick should excel at something in life, being a Harvard grad and all, but in the NFL? Stevie Johnson?
Of course, Buffalo has been fortunate to face Kansas City and Oakland these past two weeks. On the Patriots banged-up D, they should still be able to score some points. But their defense hasn't seen anything quite like the Tom Brady attack yet. I do think these guys can hang around in the AFC playoff race, as I mentioned earlier, but they'll be circling the wagons in Orchard Park this week.
CHARGERS (-14) over Chiefs
San Diego is a Mike Tolbert fumble away from maybe being 2-0. Patriots would have had time to answer, obviously, but it's something to consider. Here's guessing Mike Tolbert could fumble multiple times today and it still won't matter.
Ravens (-6) over RAMS
Possibly the toughest game on the board. St. Louis staring down 0-3, which is by no means a death sentence in the NFC West, but it still ain't good for business. The Ravens looked as bad against the Titans as they looked good against the Steelers in Week 1. So we have no idea which Baltimore team will show up. Usually in a game like this I'd take the points, but there's too many injuries for the Rams on offense to overcome the mighty Ravens D.
Jets (-2.5) over RAIDERS
All I can say is....thank God this isn't Nnamdi Asomugha's homecoming to Oakland.
Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
Definitely a coin-toss game. The Falcons looked great in rallying against the Eagles last weekend, while the Bucs were equally impressive in coming back against Minnesota. Just comes down to the Kevin Kelly adage once again: Gotta hunch, betta bunch. Falcons are supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, Bucs aren't.
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Cardinals
From here on out, I vow never to go into detail on any pick where two NFC West teams square off against one another. Seattle can be tough at home, and they're underdogs. It'd be ballsy if I made this my Lock of the Week, but I like this game just a little bit more....
Packers (-4.5) over BEARS
The loss of Nick Collins will hurt, no question, but I'm pretty sure the Packers have suffered some devastating injuries in the past year or so and still won a Lombardi Trophy. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams might be the most underrated cornerback tandem in the league. And assuming Clay Matthews gets to Jay Cutler a few times, it'll go even further in his prediction that he won't last the season. Some competitor, right? Lock of the Week: Packers over Bears. Book it.
STEELERS (-10.5) over Colts
NBC definitely didn't anticipate it'd be Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kerry Collins when they filled out their Sunday night schedules.
COWBOYS (-3) over Redskins
Tony Romo vs. Rex Grossman on a national stage. Just makes for riveting Monday night entertainment. But on a serious note, these teams actually aren't all that bad. NFC East quietly making a comeback in the "toughest division in football" discussion against the NFC South.
Gotta go with Cowboys at home, for no other reason that it's at Jerry World.
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