NFL Week 4 Picks

I'm almost happy I forgot to post my picks last week. Actually, I'm straight up thrilled I forgot to. Why? I undid all the good I had accomplished through the first two weeks. You know, getting off to a pretty solid 19-12-1 start calling games. Very, very solid as a matter of fact. But last week?

5-11.

Bringing me back to square one. 24-23-1, and now the Ravens handed me another loss by not coming even close to covering against the Browns. So I'm at .500.

But you know what? Maybe I shouldn't count last week. Or any of the first three weeks for that matter. We all know there's a little asterisk next to many of these games due to the replacement officials. According to John Buccigross's twitter, the ref who worked the biggest travesty of them all (the Green Bay/Seattle game, which was the equivalent of the Nagasaki bombing in that there was just no way the Japanese could continue on the charade of having a chance, much like the owners and Roger Goodell couldn't carry on the charade of "these guys are doing a good job"), was working a high school game in Texas on Friday night. Well, then.


By the way, I gave myself a win for that Packers/Seahawks game. If the correct call had been made, Green Bay would have won 12-7 and covered the -3 spread. Sue me. On to the picks.

Last Week: 5-11*
Season: 24-24-1*
This Week: 0-1
Locks of the Week: 1-2

Home team in CAPS

Patriots (-4) over BILLS

I keep getting flashbacks to my 12-year-old self, which is what I was the last time the Patriots were below. 500. The last time they were two games below .500? We'd have to go back to 2001, and my 10-year-old self. I'm not feeling it either. Sometimes you just have to go with what makes the most sense.

LIONS (-4) over Vikings

I'd say the law of averages is in play for this one too. Minnesota looked a little too good last week in upending the 49ers, while the Lions lost a coin-flip game with the Titans that really could have gone either way. When it's a situation like that, go with the home team.

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers

Obviously this isn't a pick I want to make. But I've argued all week that the Falcons have been the most impressive of the undefeated teams thus far, with Matt Ryan truly making a leap to elite quarterback status. Perhaps no better 1-2 punch at receiver in the game with Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention a top-3 tight end of all-time rounding out his career in Tony Gonzalez. (Who else is in the top 3? Simple. Ditka and Gronk).

49ers (-4) over JETS

Rex Ryan trying to go all Belichick on us and toss an offensive player, in this case Joe McKnight, in to the defensive backfield. Troy Brown's ain't a dime a dozen. I like this plan to flop just like pretty much everything else has with the Ryan-era Jets. We realize we were a few Dan Carpenter missed field goals away from full-on Tebowmania this week?

CHIEFS (+1.5) over Chargers

Jamaal Charles's ACL looks to be alright. So does Norv Turner's September ways, as the Chargers were full-on embarrassed last week by the Falcons. I'll go with the home team getting points here.

TEXANS (-13) over Titans

Matt Schaub ain't afraid of Mike Tyson.

Seahawks (-3) over RAMS

The Seahakws have been the benefit of two of the most notorious calls of the fake-ref era. We all know about last Monday, but remember Week 1, when they were awarded 4 timeouts in the second half? They couldn't capitalize since they put their faith in Braylon Edwards, a known mistake, but things are happening in Seattle. New arena being built for the return of the NBA and maybe even NHL. The Oilers owners were in town last week touring Key Arena. You know, assuming the NHL ever has a season. Or future.

CARDINALS (-4) over Dolphins

The Cardinals are about to become one of the most perplexing 4-0 teams of all-time. Seriously did anyone see this coming? Like, anyone? And with Kevin Kolb no less? By the way, Philly fans, how's Vick doing?

BRONCOS (-7) over Raiders

Much like Tom Brady, I can't see a Peyton Manning-led team falling two games below .500. Or losing three in a row, for that matter, with two of the losses coming at home.

Bengals (+1.5) over JAGUARS

Ordinarily, I don't think there's any reason to get excited over a Bengals-Jaguars game. I'm having a hard time thinking if both teams were ever relevant at the same time. And they aren't of equal relevance today, either. But you know who's officiating this game today? It's the return of Ed Hochuli! Must-see TV all of a sudden. I can't figure out why the NFL didn't drop him on a primetime game for the life of me but hey, I don't think I've ever been more excited to see another man's biceps. In fact this is the only time I've ever been excited to see another man's biceps. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Saints

I'm a little disappointed Mike McCarthy's post-game press conference after the debacle Monday night didn't result in one of the all-time great blooper moments, along the lines of a Jim Mora "playoffs" or Dennis Green "they are who we thought they were". But I'm pretty sure off camera, he couldn't have been too thrilled, and nor could anyone on the Packers have been. For what it's worth, though, they still only would have won 12-7.....where's the offense? I'd say against the depleted Saints it finally wakes up. I'm confident enough in that I'll bestow Lock of the Week status here.

Redskins (+2) over BUCCANEERS

If it's essentially a coin-toss of a game, look to quarterback play. RGIII over Josh Freeman any day of the week and twice on Sunday's. Which is perfect, because today's Sunday.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants

Nick Foles isn't about to become a starting NFL quarterback.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bears

Has any team looked uglier than the Bears the last two weeks, despite winning one of those games? I think they'll play better against the 'Boys, but it's time for them to have a breakout game too. Home team on a Monday night.