Tuesday, February 1, 2011

NHL Mid-Season Awards and Outlook-Part II

Had to take a break and watch the Bruins game. A nice 3-2 victory. Forgive me. Moving on:

I've named the most valuable player thus far in the NHL, the best goalie, the best rookie, best defenseman, etc. What fun would all that be without naming the opposite versions? You know, like if this were Seinfeld, this would be the "bizzaro world".

It'd be too difficult to go through all the defenseman out there and anoint one of them the worst, and it's unfair to go after a rookie who's presumably only going to get better. But in terms of veteran skaters and goaltenders? Different story entirely. In homage to the Bruins of yesteryear, I'll be naming the Least Valuable Player (LVP) the Alex Zhamnov Memorial Trophy, after the Bruins "big signing" coming off the lockout. And for the goaltending award, I will combine two of the very best Bruins netminders of the past into one, and will dish out the Hannu Raycroft Award for the worst goaltender. Don't worry, I didn't forget about Rob Tallas, Felix Potvin, John Grahame, or Steve Shields. But if you recall, both Andrew Raycroft and Hannu Toivenen were the "next big thing" around here at one point in time. Kind of like Tuukka Raskcroft is right now. Alright enough about the Bruins post-lockout it's just getting depressing.

Alex Zhamnov Memorial Trophy of the Half-season



Ilya Kovalchuk, LW, Devils

Watch that video real quick and it tells the whole story. Kovalchuk, the NHL leader in goals since he broke into the league in 2001, just hasn't been able to catch a break. After a tumultuous summer in which his 17 year, $102 million free agent signing with the Devils was voided, followed by signing an equally laughable 15 year, $100 million deal, Kovy has become the whipping boy for what ails the once-proud New Jersey Devils. Right from his acquisition at the deadline last spring, it just felt weird seeing Kovalchuk, not exactly a defensive-minded player, on the defense-first Devils. 

Kovalchuk has put up a 14-15-29 line thus far, which is fine until you realize who he is, what he's being paid, and then look at his plus/minus rating: -29, far and away the worst in the NHL by 6.

The Devils have had their share of problems, including Zach Parise's long-term injury and Father Time finally catching up with Marty Brodeur, but Kovalchuk has been an even bigger problem when he was supposed to be a solution.

Off the hook: Simon Gagne, Sergie Gonchar, Phil Kessel, Chris Phillips, and Blake Wheeler. Just kidding about Wheeler. Sort of.

Hannu Raycroft Memorial Trophy of the Half-season

 
Nikolai Khabibulin, Oilers
The Bulin Wall edges out a strong crop of terrible goalies for the inaugural Hannu Raycroft award. Which is really a shame, considering his pedigree as a Stanley Cup winning goalie with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004. But when you rank in the bottom 5 in both save percentage (.891) and goals against average (3.45), all while manning the bottom dwellers of the Western Conference, the choice becomes a fairly simple one. And The Wall has played more games than your average terrible goaltender, 32, which means he's had more time to improve his numbers but has failed to do so.
You'd think Edmonton will go with a younger goalie in the 2nd half, so Khabibulin may well escape, but he's set the tone for ineptitude between the pipes thus far.
Off the hook: Martin Brodeur, Rick DiPietro, Steve Mason, Marty Turco, Jonas Gustavsson
Adrian Beltre "Pleasant Surprise" Team of the Half-season
Oh right they moved to Dallas



Mike Modano, franchise icon dating back to those iconic days in Minnesota? Gone. Marty Turco, rock solid goaltender for the better part of the last decade? Exiled. Brad Richards, best player? Due to be a free agent, deemed likely to be traded for prospects.

Yet through it all, it's been a magical season in the Big D thus far. Richards has, as expected, been dynamite, posting a 20-37-57 line thus far, despite the constant trade winds that have surrounded him. The goaltending has been a surprise of epic proportions with Thrashers castoff Kari Lehtonen leading the way and, wait for it, Andrew Raycroft playing solid in relief. 
The supporting cast in Dallas has been stepping up as well, with rising stars James Neal and Loui Eriksson both making solid contributions, while captain Brendan Morrow is turning in his usual solid performance. Even former Canadiens great Mike Ribeiro has been getting in on the act, placing third on the team in scoring behind only Richards and Eriksson.

Add it all up, and Dallas is leading the Pacific Division, third overall in the West. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Richards. The guess here is they milk him for all he's worth and let him play out his contract and try to win the Cup this season. But if a desperate team comes calling, offering up a king's ransom, can the Stars turn it down? Definitely a storyline worth watching.

Also a pleasant surprise: Atlanta Thrashers, Nashville Predators.

John Lackey "Biggest Disappointment" Team of the Half-season

 
New Jersey Devils

As mentioned earlier, leading goal scorer in the NHL since 2001? Check. Arguably the best goaltender of the past 20 years, and possibly even all-time? Check. Another perennial 35 goal-scorer, not to mention several players left from the glory days of New Jersey? 
This could be a 30 for 30 documentary some day. What if I told you Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Brodeur, Zach Parise, Patrick Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, and Brian Rolston would stumble out to the worst record in the NHL? 

Some how, some way, the New Jersey Devils have plummeted from 103 points last year to a 61 point-pace this season, currently sitting in dead last with 37. Langenbrunner has since been traded back to the Dallas Stars, where he helped them win a Cup in 1999. As mentioned earlier in the Kovalchuk section, injuries and time have simply caught up to the Devils. One must think the Devils will rebound to an extent in the second half, right? There are simply still too many talented players on this team to be mentioned in the same breath as the Islanders, Maple Leafs, Oilers, etc. But if this is indeed the end of Marty Brodeur as a top-flight goaltender, the Devils are going to have a lot of decisions to make between now and the trade deadline.

Off the hook: Islanders, Maple Leafs, Oilers, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings

It's been yet another long season on Long Island.

There are many Bruins season ticket holders, like the one above, who have longed for Lord Stanley's return to Boston for the first time since 1972. Is this, finally, the year?

Moving forward, who exactly is the clubhouse leader in the race for the Cup? Out West, it's hard to pick against current leader Vancouver. With the Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler leading the charge offensively and Bobby Luongo between the pipes, it's hard to see them relinquishing the pole position. Although Luongo has been known to fade in the post-season before, so it's by no means signed, sealed and delivered. And never count out the Detroit Red Wings.

Back East, of course I think the Bruins have a chance. With Tim Thomas playing well enough to win not only the Vezina, but perhaps the Hart Trophy as well, the Bruins can hang with any team in the National Hockey League on any given night. They've got great depth at every position, with no true weak links.

That being said, when at full strength, I just don't know if I can see anyone getting past the Pittsburgh Penguins. I hope I'm wrong, I really, really do. But as of now, I think we're staring down a Vancouver-Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Finals. And if you think everything is all shits and giggles in the Steel City right now, with them being in the Super Bowl and all, just remember this: they still have the Pirates.

NHL Mid-Season Awards and Outlook

I've made it clear in the past: that the Carolina Hurricanes belong in Hartford as the Whalers. I could go on and on, etc. But the people of Raleigh put on a helluva show this past All-Star weekend, providing some great festivities and a memorable game that featured 21 total goals. Team Lidstrom defeated Team Staal, 11-10. And most importantly, people tuned in; ratings were 50% higher from the NHL's previous All-Star endeavor in 2009.

Now that the unofficial halfway point is behind us, let's take a look back at the first 50 or so games from the first half or the season, and try to come up with some idea as to who the favorite is. I'll be handing out some hardware, while throwing in a few "awards" of my own, and identifying which teams have surprised the most, in addition to which have been the biggest disappointment.

Being realistic, I can count only 5 teams who have absolutely zero chance at making the post-season. Those teams would be the Maple Leafs, Islanders, Devils, Senators, and Oilers. So with 25 teams still having a puncher's chance at raising Lord Stanley's Cup, it's time to drop the puck on the season's second half.

Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) of the Half-season



Sidney Crosby, C, Penguins

Think of it this way: Sid the Kid has played in just 41 games so far, accumulating 32 goals in those contests. Compare that to a down year (by his standards) in 2008-09, when he reached just 33 goals through 77 games. Crosby's play this year has helped keep the Penguins among the NHL's elite, despite at times inconsistent goaltending from primary netminder Marc-Andre Fleury.

Crosby has missed the past 9 Penguins games with a concussion, and unfortunately for the Pens, has yet to be cleared for game action. So come the end of the season, Crosby's numbers may not look quite as strong compared to some of his competitors for the award. But also consider this: Pittsburgh is just 5-4 without Crosby in the lineup, compared to 26-11-4 with his services. So despite the relatively small sample size, there's definitely some correlation between the Penguins with Sid and without him.

Assuming Crosby can return by the middle of February, he should still have about 25 games to play in, which would give him 66 for the season. Despite what will have amounted to 16 games missed, he's still on a torrid pace for 52 goals and 55 assists for 107 points. Come April, it's likely Steven Stamkos will have a sizable lead on The Kid in nearly all offensive categories. But for the first half of the season, no one meant more to his team than Crosby did to the Penguins.

Still in the running: Stamkos, the Sedin twins, Ryan Kesler, Tim Thomas

Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie) winner of the Half-season


Tim Thomas, Bruins

Martin Brodeur. Patrick Roy. Dominick Hasek. Ed Belfour. Ken Dryden. Tony Esposito. Michel Laroque. Bernie Parent. Those are the names of goaltenders who have won multiple Vezina Trophies in the NHL's Expansion era (1967+), awarded each year the most outstanding goalie in the NHL. Not too shabby of a list, is it? And boy, is Thomas primed to join them or what.  Of course, you can't tell Thomas's whole story without going back to this time two years ago. 

Thomas was in the midst of a career year, with the Bruins sitting pretty atop the Eastern Conference, primed for their first division title since 2004. Near the end of the campaign, Thomas was awarded a 4 year, $20 million contract extension. At this point, he was a shoo-in for the Vezina. But a 4 year extension?  For a 34 year old goalie who had only been a starter for two years?

Immediately, there were all kinds of criticisms for Thomas's new deal. And last season, in the first year of the extension, Thomas was supplanted as starter by phenom Tuukka Rask. It looked as though his magical 2008-09 season was just lightning in a bottle, and he cashed in big time while screwing the Bruins cap situation in the process.

But alas, Rask struggled from fatigue as the Bruins blew a 3-0 series lead to the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Semis last spring, and was promptly lit up for 5 goals in the Bruins season opener this season. Thomas got the start in the B's second game, and wound up starting 7 of the next 8 contests overall. Thomas won all 7 of his starts, posting 3 shutouts along the way, while allowing just 5 goals overall.

And he's done anything but cool down from that start. Timmy's overall record is 24-5-6, leading all NHL goaltenders in both save percentage (.945) and goals against average (1.81), and is tied for the league lead in shutouts with 7. 

The real clincher for Thomas is the rest of his competition. Or lack thereof. Pekka Rinne of Nashville, who is second in both SV% and GAA, is closer to 10th place in save percentage and 23rd place in goals against, than he is to Thomas in both categories. Tim Thomas is indeed primed to join the hallowed company of multiple Vezina winners.

Still in the running: This one's over, Johnny.

Calder Trophy (Best Rookie) of the Half-season


Jeff Skinner, C, Hurricanes

Welp, so much for Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin taking the NHL by storm. Weren't they supposed to be a slightly younger version of Crosby vs. Ovechkin? While Hall has performed about as well as one can be expected to perform in the doldrums of Edmonton, Seguin has struggled to find any semblance of consistency. Granted, the Bruins haven't been in a position where they need Seguin to turn into Crosby 2.0, but he's more or less looked lost as sea for a good portion of the season.

Meanwhile, the 7th overall pick of this years draft, Jeff Skinner, has helped bring the Hurricanes to the brink of playoff contention, and perhaps giving Carolina a second top-flight forward to go with Eric Staal. Skinner was the only rookie selected for the All-Star game, especially notable due to playing in front of his home crowd. He leads all rookies in scoring and assists, while placing second in goals behind only Logan Couture of the Sharks.

Perhaps the scariest part about Skinner is his age: 18. While many rookies traditionally hit the so-called wall around this time of the year, Skinner actually had his best month of the season in January, putting up a 9-5-14 line. So while this award may not be as set in stone as some of the others, Skinner is definitely in the driver's seat.

Still in the running: Couture, Corey Crawford (Blackhawks), Hall, and just for the hell of it, Brad Marchand of the Bruins.

Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman) of the Half-season


Dustin Byfuglien, Thrashers (pronounced Buff-lin)

While not necessarily a scoring competition amongst defensemen, Big Buff has had an undeniable impact on the Thrashers that simply can't go untold. A casualty of the Blackhawks' salary cap woes following their Stanley Cup run in June, Atlanta swooped in and acquired Byfuglien and several other members of the Chicago Championship-winning squad to install a new attitude around the team. And no one has had a bigger impact than Buff. 

During training camp, Thrashers coach Craig Ramsey made the controversial decision of moving Byfuglien from right wing to D, a move which many thought would hinder some of Byfuglien's strengths, such as his play in front of the net.

But his overall game hasn't suffered a bit, and it's hard to argue that he can't contribute the most on the blue line. 18 of his 41 points have come on the power play, making him a valuable asset on that front, while his 16 goals lead all defensemen. 

Atlanta, for the first time, well, ever, seems to care about hockey. And with Big Buff leading the charge, the Thrashers are poised for their first post-season berth since 2007.

Still in the running: Zdeno Chara, Lubomir Visnovsky, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Letang.

Stay tuned for Part II later on tonight.