Patriots Through Two Weeks

Unfortunately, I don't have access to those fancy numbers available from the Elias Sports Bureau to put into perspective just how historic Tom Brady's first two weeks have been. Just about all of those crazy statistics you see on SportsCenter or in various sports columns are courtesy of said bureau.

Fortunately, I don't need those numbers to lay it out there. Not only is he leading the NFL in passing yardage through two weeks (940), that's the most ever thrown for in the first two weeks of a season. In 92 seasons of NFL football. He's also league-leader in QB rating (128.0) and completions (63), tied for the lead in touchdown passes (7), and mere percentage points behind Matt Stump the Shcaub in completion percentage (71.7 vs. 71.6).

Coming into this season, Tom Brady had not once, not even in the storybook record-book 2007 season, topped 400 yards passing in a game. He's now done it in back-to-back weeks. 

Brady's 940 yards through two games have him on pace to throw for 7,520 yards this season. Or, 2,436 more yards than the current NFL record of 5,084 held by Dan Marino. Is it realistic to think Brady will throw for 7,000 yards? Probably not. Is it realistic to think that Brady can not only break Marino's record this season, but break it substantially? Very much so.

Of the 940 yards accumulated so far by no. 12, just 59 of them have gone in the direction of prized off-season acquisition Chad Ochocinco, off of 3 catches. Way too early to write off the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson. But will it even matter if he ever gets going? 

Wes Welker and Deion Branch have each caught 15 balls apiece, totaling 241 and 222 yards, respectively. The 15 receptions through two weeks are good enough for a tie for third in the NFL. Curiously, San Diego back Mike Tolbert is the league leader in receptions, with 17. That puts him on a tidy pace for 136 on the season, which would be good enough for second on the all-time list. But I digress.

After two games, the Pats have dropped 38 and 35 points on the Dolphins and Chargers. That puts them on a pace for 584 points on the season.....just 5 less than the NFL record 589 set by, you guessed it, the 2007 Patriots.

And what's a major difference between the 2011 lineup from the 2007 edition? Production from the tight ends.

Said tight ends have not only shown no sign of a sophomore slump, but in fact, have been even better so far in their second season. The duo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have combined for 24 catches, 337 receiving yards, as well as collecting 5 of Tom Brady's 7 touchdown passes. Word's leaking in this afternoon that Hernandez may miss a week or two with a sprained MCL, but this shouldn't have any negative effects on the offense. In fact, hopefully it means 85 gets more involved.

This takes us back to the 2007 angle. While Welker in particular, along with Jabar Gaffney and Dont'e Stallworth were essential in creating the juggernaut, make no mistake about it, that receiving corps clicked based off of one man, and one man only: Randy Moss. It's safe to say that too many comparisons between Ocho and Rand University were made prior to the season. People expected Chad to waltz right on in here, catch not 23 but 24 touchdown passes and in the process rack up 1,500 yards receiving and about 100 catches, give or take. 

Newsflash: Chad Ochocinco is not Randy Moss. Not even in the same stratosphere. Galaxy, maybe. But if you're ranking the wide receivers of the past decade, it goes Moss/Owens in no particular order, followed by a slew of others including, for sure, Ocho. But he never was on the same level as Randy Moss, and it's safe to say at this point he never will be.

That being said.....isn't a receiving corps consisting of a modified Ochocinco, Welker, Branch (lightyears more reliable than Gaffney or Stallworth), and the tight end tandem even more scintillating than the Moss, Welker......Gaffney/Stallworth/Ben Watson groupd?

And we haven't even mentioned the differences in the running game yet, but all you need to know is that Laurence Maroney was on that 2007 team, and he isn't on this one. 

Tying everything together, all I'm stating is that I think this 2011 offense is not only more well-balanced than in 2007, it's straight up better. Tom Brady himself is better, which is scary in of itself. I didn't mention the defense at all today, and that unit has been a tad concerning so far, but there's so many new pieces on that side of the ball that it'll take time for it to gel. Hopefully it's not a matter of if, but a matter of when it does indeed gel.

Bottom line: this team shouldn't be aspiring to go 19-0. It should be aspiring to win Super Bowl XLVI. Yet with the way things have looked through two weeks, it's hard not to think about the chances of both.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Boy did I get off to a rough start last week. Who knew the Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fred Jackson/Stevie Johnson trio in Buffalo was Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith/Michael Irvin 2.0? Then again, most of my other picks that went erstwhile, I should have seen coming. The Cleveland Browns being nearly a touchdown favorite in their season opener, with expectations labeled upon them? Tony Romo showing up for a big game? The Ravens clearly having more to prove than the Steelers? Tom Petty's latest single "I Should Have Known It" is the mantra here. Which is why I won't be getting duped on any of these NFL Week 2 picks. We're ready for prime time here at the Experience.

Last Week: 4-10-2
Locks of the Week: 1-0 (Patriots over Dolphins)


Home team in CAPS

Chiefs (+9) over LIONS
How exactly can you be "free falling" after just one game? And sure, the Chiefs laid arguably the biggest egg of any team, period, last weekend, contender or pretender. And they lost their top defensive player for the season in Eric Berry.

But we're talking about the Lions here. I'm wary to take a Lions team that's been labeled with those expectations I was talking about earlier with the Browns. And sure, there's plenty more talent in the Motor City than in the Dawg Pound. But you realize neither of these teams have ever made a Super Bowl appearance? And while the Lions did win their opener vs. Tampa, they hardly looked dominant. If Jahvid Best is getting the ball 21 times, he should top 72 yards, shouldn't he?

The Lions may prevail in this one, and I realize it's a sin to take an underdog unless you think they can win outright, but this feels like it's coming down to a Jason Hanson field goal late in the 4th.

BILLS (-4) over Raiders


Buffalo scored more points, while giving up fewer, than the Patriots did in Week 1. For what it's worth. And now they get to play that monstrosity of an organization in the Raiders, who barely beat the Broncos in the Monday night opener. In other words, the team who's fan base is openly clamoring for Tim Tebow.

Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS


Philadelphia Eagles Quarterbacks, circa 2009, in Week 1 of the 2011 season:

Mike Vick (Eagles): 14-32, 187 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 11 carries, 97 yards
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): 18-27, 309 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Donovan McNabb (Vikings): 7-15, 39 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

I rest my case.

SAINTS (-7) over Bears


Possibly the toughest game of the week. A million different factors in play here. Brian Urlacher with the "Brett Favre Rule", playing a game so shortly after the death of a parent (we remember Favre's stat line the night after his father's passing back in 2003). You also have the Saints trying to avoid an 0-2 start in the NFC South, where weirdly enough, an 0-2 start may not even be a death blow based on some of the other Week 2 opponents their divisional foes are playing.

And true, Marques Colston is out for this one, and the next several, with a broken collarbone. But he's missed time before, and the Saints possess some of the best depth at receiver in the NFL. The Saints were a play away from taking the defending champs to OT in the season opener. And Chicago looked almost too impressive in their unraveling of the Falcons. It's a big spread, but I think the Saints Brees by in this one.

Ravens (-6.5) over TITANS


If the Titans can't beat Luke McCown after one week of his being named starter, good luck. And I might mean Andrew Luck.

COLTS (+2) over Browns


I know, I know. The Colts being underdogs at home to anyone seems like a misprint. But this isn't 2002-2010 anymore. The "free falling" tag definitely can apply to the Colts through one week, if only because they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of all-time with Kerry Collins. I repeat, they're replacing a top 5 quarterback of ALL-TIME with KERRY COLLINS. And it's not like Edgerrin James is in the backfield to take the pressure off.

Having said all that....

The Browns are favored after their stinkbomb last week? They lost (at home, mind you) to the Cincinnata Bungles. Madden cover boy couldn't even get to 60 yards rushing. Colt McCoy completed under 50% of his throws. They even allowed Bruce Gradkowski to throw a touchdown pass on them. On principles alone, I have to take the Colts and the points on this one.

JETS (-9) over Jaguars


A Luke McCown-quarterbacked team cannot and will not start 2-0. It just can't happen. It's a physical impossibility. Ron Burgundy would say, it's science. Men just have larger brains than women. Luke McCown's just don't have 2-0 starts, even if it means that Mark Sanchez will. Whatever. Jets at home, they've gotta play a better game than they did against dem Cowboys, right?

STEELERS (-14.5) over Seahawks


You know how sometimes you look at a college football line and wince when you see that a team like Florida is favored by 35 points or something ridiculous against a team like Southwest Montana Institute of Technology? This game could have a line like that, and I think I'd still take the Steelers. I don't want to hear about how old they are, or the "Super Bowl Loser" curse either. At least not this week. Because the Seahakws are an abomination to the National Football League. Marshawn Lynch, 33 yards against the 49ers, really? And back to the age thing, I'm pretty sure the Steelers could bring back Rod Woodson and Mean Joe Greene and they'd still get the best of Tarvaris Jackson.

It's a ballsy call with the spread being so high, but it isn't at all. This is my Week 2 Lock of the Week.

REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals


If a rookie playing in his first ever NFL game can throw for 422 yards against the Cardinals secondary, what can Rex Grossman do? And I'm not trying to make Grossman sound elite or anything here, but I'm completely serious. He survived the Giants D, now he's gotta face this? Is he finally blooming into the quarterback we all thought he would become when the Bears took him in the 1st round back in 2003?

No. But the mirage will continue at least for another week. For crying out loud, the 'Skins coulda held onto McNabb and even he might throw for 100 yards against the Cards.

Packers (-10.5) over PANTHERS


Quick fantasy tangent: the Avengers drafted Peyton Manning in round 2 this year, back in early August, when it still appeared he'd be able to play a full 16 game season. Took Matt Cassel as a backup, because hey, you can totally survive one week of Matt Cassel if the other weeks are Peyton. Just for the hell of it, I picked up Cam Newton in the 13th round, partially so I could say I had two former Heisman winners on my squad (Mark Ingram being the other). Never thought I'd actually get around to playing Newton, much less hanging on to him once an injury to one of my starters occurred.

To spare you the gory details, I started Matt Cassel in place of Manning last week, with the logic being "there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards in his NFL debut". For the first time ever, the Avengers are in real danger of missing the post-season.

Back to reality: there's no way Cam Newton throws for 422 yards again this week. Against the Packers. I'm not discrediting Newton's record mark, but I'm pretty sure he faced better secondaries in the SEC last year than Arizona. And if Scam can throw for that kind of yardage and the Panthers still lose, Go Pack Go.

Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS

Couldn't have asked for a better Week 2 match-up if you're a Cowboys fan, because no matter how many mistakes Tony Romo makes in this one, he's going up against Alex Smith. And the Cowboys really should have won that game, against a legitimate playoff team, by the way.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers


I won't be at Gillette, but I'm listening to Tom Brady and getting lubed up for this one. With Peyton Manning out, Philip Rivers assumes his spot on the active-QB Mount Rushmore along with Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. The over/under for this one is 54, but it doesn't specify if that's for the two teams combined or just for the Patriots. Regardless, I'll take the Pats and that "over" thing.

Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS


I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "hey, if Chad Henne can throw for 416 yards against the Patriots, doesn't that mean he'll be able to throw for 746 against the Texans?"

The Texans secondary is still clearly their Achilles's Heel, but the signing of Jonathan Joseph definitely gives them some street cred over the unit that ranked dead last against the pass in 2010. And Houston can't afford to blow their chance this year. All of their opponents in the AFC South have a list of problems that dwarfs in comparison to the problems facing the Obama White House. I'm only slightly exaggerating.

With or without Arian Foster, this Ben Tate dude seems to know what he's doing. Texas needs one legit football team; why not the Texans?

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bengals


I'd rather write a report about why the Marshall Islands could take down the Federated States of Micronesia if they ever decided to invade their Oceania neighbors.

Eagles (-3) over FALCONS


Vick's already been back to Atlanta once, granted when Donovan F. McNabb was still calling the shots, but still.

Bad timing for Matt Ryan to try and get in a groove with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Tony Gonzalez could have a big game for Atlanta, unless they decide to stick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on him. I still think the Falcons will be okay after an 0-2 start, because like I said earlier, it's entirely possible for every NFC South team to lose again this week.

But the Eagles were far from that dominant "dream team" status in beating the Rams a week ago, and even though I've been mocking the dream team stuff, if they want to get past the Packers, they gotta start somewhere. I think this could be the week, on national TV in prime time, that we get to find out what to really make of Philly.

GIANTS (-7) over Rams


Tough line because of all the injuries on both teams. It sounds like Sam Bradford is going to play for St. Louis, and even though Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola won't be out there, I still think he'll be able to keep St. Louis in this one. But the Rams aren't exactly used to playing on Monday Night Football in New York New Jersey, and much as I'd like to see the G-Men fall to 0-2, the talent disparity on offense is too overwhelming for the Rams to overcome without the two players I just mentioned. But St. Louis is in the NFC West, where forget about an 0-2 start, an 0-6 start isn't exactly a death kneel. The Rams will be alright ultimately, just not this week in the Meadowlands.