Sunday, December 18, 2011

NFL Week 15 Picks

And down the stretch they come. Three more weeks until January. Three more weeks until Andrew Luck signs with the Colts. Three more weeks until the Patriots 16-0 mark from 2007 is matched, and the '72 Dolphins have to start getting all nervous again. Three more weeks until the Tebow Train enters the playoffs. Three more weeks until we finish our first NFL season without Brett Favre since 1990. Three more weeks until....who knows what else could happen in three weeks.

But today? Oh, plenty can and will happen today (and tomorrow night). After two sleepers of a Monday night game, we get the best MNF contest in terms of winning percentage this late in the season since 1997 (Steelers vs. 49ers). Tonight's Sunday night game ain't so bad either, with the Ravens and the 5 1/2 feet under Chargers doing what the 5 1/2 feet under Chargers do. Some other intriguing games pitting desperate teams against one another, such as Bears/Seahawks or Lions/Raiders. But none of those games match the intrigue of a certain game out in Denver.

I'm watching SportsCenter right now and they're using a Rudyard Kipling poem to describe Tim Tebow. For real. I have never seen anything like what we're seeing right now with Tebow. He's getting coverage that even Favre or LeBron would envy. He's such a polarizing figure, either loved or hated by all, and everyone has an opinion on him. He's blowing up twitter. His name's become a verb. He has a beer named after him. A group of high school kids got suspended for "Tebow-ing". Casual sports fans and girls are even starting to know who Tim Tebow is.

He has the lowest interception rate in the NFL amongst qualified passers. He also has the lowest completion percentage among those qualified passers. And who's he going up against?

Just Tom Brady and the Patriots.

It's the ultimate battle of good vs. evil. Tebow vs. Belichick. It's Luke Skywalker vs. Darth Vader. This is without a doubt the most-hyped regular season game since 2007, when the 8-0 Pats took on the 7-0 Colts. Which is funny, because neither team on the field today possess anywhere near the talent either of those teams had. That game was a battle between two of the top five or so quarterbacks to ever play the game. Sure we still have Brady in this one, but Tebow has only started 10 career games with a career completion percentage of 48.3.

There's no rhyme or reason whatsoever to why this game is receiving the hype it is, and there's no rhyme or reason whatsoever to why Tebow is getting the coverage he's getting. Tim Tebow isn't the only one who's gone 7-1 over the past 8 weeks; there's 52 other guys on that roster. But praise Jesus, it is what it is. The hype machine cranks on.

Here's the Week 15 picks:

Last Week: 8-7-1
Season: 95-103-10
Locks of the Week: 9-5 (Steelers didn't cover vs. Browns in Week 14)


This Week: 2-0


Home team in CAPS

GIANTS (-6.5) over Redskins


Between the three teams still alive in the NFC East race, I can't decide if the Giants are the most dangerous or least dangerous of the three. On the one hand, they've been there, Tyree'd that. On the other hand, they've already had a 4-game losing streak this season, as well as unfathomable losses to the Redskins and Seahakws early on. And if we're talking "dangerous", doesn't Mike Vick qualify as such? Needless to say, if the Giants do fall flat in this one, the end of the Tom Coughlin era is coming up fast.

Packers (-13.5) over CHIEFS


Kyle Orton gets a second crack at the Packers this season. His first time out, he threw 3 interceptions in a 49-23 Broncos loss. And Tim Tebow isn't waiting on the bench for him in this one. That'd be Tyler Palko.

Saints (-8) over VIKINGS


Remember when the Vikings came within a Brett Favre INT of beating the Saints and advancing to Super Bowl XLIV? That was two years ago, but it feels like about twenty-two if you're a Vikings fan.

Seahawks (+3.5) over BEARS


If you think Tim Tebow has accuracy problems, well, you clearly haven't watched Tarvaris Jackson or Caleb Haine play quarterback yet this season. That being the case, the Seahawks have an outstanding running game with Marshawn Lynch. The Bears, on the other hand, have Marion Barber, who I'm pretty sure got crucified after that game last week. Get it? Because he was playing against Jesus! If Jay Cutler doesn't come back for next week Bears are donezo.

Dolphins (+2) over BILLS


I'm surprised the Dolphins didn't let Tony Sparano at least finish out the season as head coach. Aside from last week's egg against the Eagles, they'd won 4 of 5, with the one loss being by a mere one point due to a botched snap. Sure he was going to move on at the end of the season anyways, but what kind of message does that send to the current Dolphin players, who were embellishing the role of spoiler? Fortunately for them, the Bills cure all ills.

Panthers (+6) over TEXANS


Not an indictment of the Texans by any means, but I feel a big week from Cam Newton coming on after he let the Falcons game a week ago slip away. Also, while Houston's accomplished their goal of finally qualifying for the post-season, their virgin post-season voyage will be even shorter than Tebow's virgin voyage. It's really amazing they've been able to accomplish what they have without Mario Williams, Matt Schaub, or Andre Johnson.

Titans (-6.5) over COLTS


The Titans aren't a worthy Lock of the Week team. But the Colts are a worthy Lock of the Week opponent. And therefore, the Titans are my Week 15 Lock.

Bengals (-7) over RAMS


Bengals aren't dead yet, but every game is a playoff game for them from here on out. Not that they'd be facing a Rams type of team in the post-season, but still.

Lions (-1) over RAIDERS


I have absolutely no idea what will happen in this game. There could be a brawl between Lions players and Black Hole fans, conjuring up memories of Ron Artest  Metta World Peace, and I wouldn't be remotely surprised. It could be a blowout for either side, and I wouldn't be remotely surprised. Rolando McClain could shoot Jim Schwartz after he embellishes a post-game celebration against Hue Jackson. There's really no telling what will happen in this game, other than the following: expects penalties. Lots of them.

Patriots (-7.5) over BRONCOS


Patriots will win 38-10, or lose 17-14, with absolutely no in-between. While we're here, if Jack Edwards can admit he was wrong about Benoit Pulliot, when will the Steve Youngs and Merrill Hoges of the world admit they were wrong about Tebow?

Jets (+3) over EAGLES


It's truly astonishing that if the Eagles win out, they win the NFC East. And as I said earlier with the G-Men, I can't decide if they're the most dangerous team lurking in that division or not. It's a tough call deciding whether to pick the Eagles based off of their sheer talent, or basing the pick off of what we've seen as visual evidence. For what it's worth, the only games the Eagles have won against teams with winning records have been the Giants and Cowboys. The Jets, meanwhile, are quietly going to win the second wild-card in the AFC, and boy do I mean quietly. Literally no one is talking about them, which makes me extremely nervous moving forward here. I think they expose the Eagles for the frauds that they are just one last time this season.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Browns


Raise your hand if you thought a match-up between John Skelton and Seneca Wallace could have post-season implications for one team at any point during the 2011 season. Bueller? Anyone? Seriously, Cards are still mathematically alive for a wild-card spot in the NFC. I'm not making this up I swear.

Ravens (-2.5) over CHARGERS


Not this time, San Diego. Not happening. On the bright side, Norv Turner's prolonged-Ron Burgundy of San Diego fans is coming to an end. You know, they won't be told to go fuck themselves anymore. Random side note: an SI photo gallery earlier this week showed that Cris Collinsworth was the most hated NFL analyst among NFL players. You guys kidding me? C'mon now. That man is the best in the business. I have a dream scenario that some day Jack Edwards will do play-by-play of a football game alongside Collinsworth. Hey if MLK's dream can come true so can mine.

Steelers (+3) over 49ERS


If Roethlisberger doesn't play, I'll probably regret this pick. But let's just be happy that there's finally a watchable game on Monday night. The MNF season goes out on a high note, too, with the Saints-Falcons MNF season finale on the 26th.


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