Nevertheless, a storm this big deserves some recognition. Coming in a year where the A10 has a very realistic shot of sending more teams to the NCAA tournament than "power conferences" such as the ACC, SEC and even the vaunted Big East (or what's left of it)....it's a banner year for the Atlantic 10. Is it merely an aberration, or is the A10 trending as a league that will be more competitive than the Big East, the American Athletic Conference, and other leagues of that nature? Time will tell.
Here at LeviNation, we're certainly taking advantage of the rise of the A10. Besides myself, former WRIU Sports Director Chris Burnham, future WRIU Sports Director Tom Porter, as well as Adam Stein and Phil MacClellan of the UMass Basketball Report will be joining for a mega-preview of the conference tourney. As all-star a lineup as you'll find.
In the preview, we'll be taking a look at various aspects of the field (full bracket here). Which team will win the tournament? Which team can least afford a loss? Which team is most capable of a run to the Final Four, regardless of winning this tournament? Things of that nature. So without further ado, here's your official guide to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.
Jake Levin Founder/Editor, LeviNation/WRIU Sports Director
Team that can least afford a loss in first game: St. Joseph's Hawks
The easy choice is the Dayton Flyers, who face the winner of tonight's play-in game between George Mason and Fordham, but I think that A. There's zero chance of Dayton losing that game and B. Dayton has a better profile to sustain such a loss than would the Hawks. The Flyers have won nine of their last 10 games, including two very impressive wins at home vs. UMass and on the road against Saint Louis on their Senior Night. The Hawks, meanwhile, lost their final two regular season games, including an inexplicable loss at home to LaSalle. The Flyers have a better RPI (40 vs. 48) and Strength of Schedule (48 vs. 68) than St. Joe's. Dayton beat Gonzaga and California in non-con play, both of whom should be in the field of 68, while St. Joe's only real notable win in non-con was....Vermont? Who got knocked out early in the America East tournament? It warrants mentioning St. Joe's beat Dayton twice, but the Flyers stronger profile overall means the pressure is more on the Hawks, especially considering they have a bye.
Team seeded 5 or lower that is most dangerous: UMass Minutemen
Put simply, I think URI could pull the upset on sixth-seeded UMass tomorrow night, and they'd still qualify as my most dangerous team from the whole conference--including those seeded above 5--in the NCAA Tournament. No one in the A10 boasts more quality non-conference wins than the Minutemen, which include LSU, Nebraska, New Mexcio, BYU and Providence. New Mexico is a lock out of the Mountain West, and LSU is probably done out of the SEC, but the other three wins are against teams directly on the cut line for the Big Dance. I could very easily see UMass prevailing not only against URI, but against 3-seed George Washington in Round 2.
Team that will be ready for next year: Rhode Island Rams
It doesn't take someone with a pair of Rhode Island boxers to recognize this a team ready to make a huge leap to be a contender in the Atlantic 10 next year. Quality wins on the season? Few and far between, LSU, Richmond and Dayton aside, but one-point losses to Providence and Saint Louis, as well as two losses to UMass that came down to the final minute, has me thinking that maybe, just maybe, A-10 Co-Rookie of the Year EC Matthews, Hassan Martin and Co. will be ready to do some damage on the conference by next season. Xavier Munford will be a big loss, for sure, but unlike when Delroy James graduated following the 2010-11 season, this team won't just fall off a cliff. They're just getting started in Kingston.
Team that will win the 2014 Atlantic 10 Tournament: Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Two things: 1. easiest draw to the semi-finals (the winner of the Richmond vs. Duquesne game doesn't stand a chance) and 2. Shaka Smart. VCU was a pre-season favorite to win the league in many circles, and had one of the most quiet 24-7 (12-4 league) records you'll ever see. While their only major non-con win was against Virginia back on November 12, ever since Jay Bilas famously decreed that the Rams "didn't even pass the laugh test" regarding their at-large inclusion to the 2011 March Madness tournament and ensuing Final Four trip, you're taking your life in your hands counting out this VCU team. Juvonte Reddic and Rob Brandenberg, the last remaining links to that team, are more than capable of going out the way they started. Add in younger talent such as Briante Weber, the A10 Defensive Player of the Year, and I feel very confident about this VCU pick.
Adam Stein Founder/Editor, UMass Basketball Report
Team that can least afford a loss in their first game: Dayton Flyers
Dayton is on a win streak and has just beaten UMass and St. Louis, however they are not a lock. In the first round they will face either George Mason or Fordham, the two worst teams in the conference. If they match up against Fordham they should grab an easy win. If George Mason wins, I think they will have a tough time. Mason is a team that has taken St. Louis to overtime and beaten UMass. If Dayton wants to dance they need to beat either Fordham or George Mason and probably St. Josephs in the quarterfinals as well.
Team seeded 5 or lower that is most dangerous: UMass Minutemen
You know I’m gonna say UMass! I’ll try to make it as unbiased as possible. UMass is a 6 seed but could easily be a top three. UMass also has the easiest path to the championship game. First round is against URI, a team they have beaten twice. Next round is against GW another team they have beaten. The semi-finals is a potential match up with VCU a third team UMass has beaten. The Minutemen avoid having to play St. Joseph’s and St. Bonaventure, two teams that have had UMass’s number this season until the final game. Plus Chaz Williams will be playing at home in Brooklyn. He’s going to be a candidate for Tournament MVP
Team that will be ready for next year: UMass Minutemen
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say UMass again. The other guys are going with the “Up and Comers” like URI and George Mason, but I’m going with a “Not Going Anywhere” A lot of people will assume that with Chaz Williams, Sampson Carter and Raphiael Putney graduating this will be the Minutemen’s one shot at the big dance. I disagree. Next season UMass will be back and arguably better. Trey Davis has the talent to step into Chaz Williams’ shoes at point guard and strong A10 opponents, like St. Louis, VCU and St. Joseph’s are graduating their top talent.
Team that will win the 2014 Atlantic 10 Tournament: St. Louis Billikens.
I took a look at Atlantic 10 Tournament history and since 2000 (and probably even earlier, but I was too lazy to keep reading) Tournament winners have all been seeded fourth or higher. Out of the top four teams in this year’s tournament, I think St. Louis has the best shot at winning. The Billikens have stumbled a bit towards the end of the season but they are coming into the tournament hot with a big win at UMass. Dwayne Evans and Rob Loe are the best front court in the Atlantic 10 and Jordair Jett knows how to close out a game.
Chris Burnahm Former WRIU Sports Director/Co-Founder of Budget Biohacks
Team that can least afford a loss in first game: Dayton/St. Joe’s
I’m not going to even bother picking a team here, because whoever loses will be taking a trip to the NIT and the winner will be greatly improving their tourney chances. Of course I’m assuming that Dayton handles their business in Round 1 versus George Mason/Fordham. This is essentially an NCAA tournament game play-in game. If I had to pick one team who is slightly more disadvantaged I’d go with St. Joe’s due to poor play down the stretch. By the time Selection Sunday comes around the tournament committee can have a very short term memory.
Team seeded 5 or lower that is most dangerous: UMass Minutemen
Any team to can score in bursts and get up and down the floor like UMass are always incredibly dangerous. Run and gun teams don’t just get hot for a stretch of minutes or a half they got hot for games. This is a team that spent a considerable amount of time in the top 25 earlier in the season and they were there for a reason. I’d be worried for other teams in the A-10 tournament if the Minutemen were to get a big, momentum building win versus the Rams in the opener. Another reason I love UMass to make a run is my boy Chaz Williams. Maybe I just have a soft spot in my heart for undersized point guards, but I’m a huge Chaz fan. Any team with a talented point guard that plays with nothing to lose always makes a team more dangerous in tournament situations.
Team that will be ready for next year: Rhode Island Rams
Two simple reasons why URI will be the most ready for next year: EC Matthews and Hassan Martin. Coming off a stellar rookie year, Matthews will be a top 5 player in the A-10 next year and has the potential to be Player of the Year. I don’t need to go on singing his praises because if you read this blog I’m sure you’re well aware. Hassan Martin has shown improvement throughout the season, and I expect him to show up next year with a vastly improved offensive game. If Martin stretches out his range he’ll open up a ton of possibilities offensively for himself and the rest of the team, along with giving URI two top tier A-10 players next year. I’ve heard next year’s recruiting class is OK as well.
Team that will win the 2014 Atlantic 10 Tournament: St. Louis Billikens
St. Louis is one of the best coached and most disciplined teams in the country, never mind the conference. With a strong-base of senior leadership I see the A-10 tournament as an opportunity for the Billikens to show the committee that they can take care of business. Guys like Jordair Jett and Dwayne Evans have now been to back to back NCAA tournaments including a sweet 16 appearance. The Billikens are a no-nonsense team who I expect to complete the A-10 regular season and tournament sweep.
Tom Porter RIU2 Sports Director, Future WRIU Sports Director 2014-2015
Team that can least afford a loss in their first game: Dayton Flyers
The Dayton Flyers are easily the most vulnerable team in the A10 when comes to the fragility of their March ambitions. They are 6th it what could be considered a 5 to 6 bid conference, so quite obviously the pressure is on them. Dayton has come on strong recently (beating St. Louis and St. Joseph’s on the road, plus UMass and Richmond at home) after a lackluster midseason (with bad losses to USC and Rhode Island) and a loss to the winner of the George Mason/Fordham play in game in the A10 tournament would be the definition of backbreaking for the Flyers. If Dayton wants to stay March Madness-worthy, they need to advance through the first round at the very least to play St. Joseph’s in order to stay in the conversation.
Team seeded 5 or lower that is most dangerous: UMass Minutemen
The University of Massachusetts is a team that can turn it on at any moment, regardless of the score or momentum on the court. I watched them take down the Rhode Island Rams in Kingston, and then a few weeks later in Amherst. In both of the Minutemen’s matchups with the Rams, the Minutemen found themselves trailing in the second half, and late in the second half at that. So how did UMass respond? With an 18-6 run to close out the first matchup. In the second matchup between the schools, UMass hit four free-throws in the final minute to ice Rhode Island and sweep the regular season series. I could go on, but I think you get the point. Just when UMass appears to be in their darkest hour, they pull it together. They have got moxie, as well as good wins over RPI beasts like VCU, New Mexico, George Washington and many others. This is a team that has guts, and could go off on a moments notice with players like Williams, Putney and Lalanne spearheading the UMass attack.
Team that will be ready for next year: Rhode Island Rams
Of the five players that make up the A10 all-rookie team Rhode Island sports two, Hassan Martin and A10 co-rookie of the year E.C. Mathews. While this season did not pay immediate dividends for the Keaney faithful, Martin found his way into the spotlight averaging 3.81 blocks per 40 minutes while averaging 2.42 blocks per game (good for 40th in the nation). Mathews won A10 rookie of the week honors 7 times this season, and scored 20+ points 9 times on his way to being the go to scorer for the Rams. This, coupled with a verbal commitment from PG Jarvis Garrett for the 2014-2015 season will also benefit the Rams as he will replace Xavier Munford, the only graduating starter from this year’s incarnation of Rhode Island Basketball.
Team that will win the 2014 Atlantic 10 Tournament: Saint Louis Billikens
The Atlantic 10 seems to be the hardest conference to size up year after year. The A10 could have been characterized in past years as cannibalizing itself, where bottom feeders would take a bite out of dominant teams and undoubtedly hurt seeding chances for the elite of the conference. In my eyes the final four of the tournament will be St. Louis, St. Josephs, VCU and UMass, who will upset George Washington. Of those four, VCU and St. Louis are the better squads, as both the Rams and the Billikens consistently bounced in and out of being ranked throughout the entire season. VCU and St. Louis split the season series, but what really gives St. Louis the advantage in the championship is the liveliness Jordair Jett showed in the Billikens second matchup with VCU. Even though St. Louis lost, Jett was a major factor scoring 18 points while improving his efforts on the offensive boards bringing three rebounds home compared to the paltry zero he had in their first matchup. Jett is going to be a wrecking ball, especially considering this will be the third time these teams face off. Austin McBroom will be another factor to watch in this one as he looks to play a big role coming off of the Billikens bench. McBroom’s time on the hardwood improved greatly in the two team’s second matchup, with him playing 26 minutes, scoring 11 points and going 4/4 from the line. While St. Louis has recently stumbled, they are too good to be bad for an extended stretch of time. No matter how you slice it, the A10 championship game should be one for the ages.
Phil "Slim Phil" MacClellan Contributor, UMass Basketball Report
Team that can least afford a loss in their first game: Saint Joseph’s Hawks
The Hawks have lost two tough games in a row to George Washington and La Salle after a nice 6-game winning streak. Although neither of those losses hurt St. Joe’s at-large profile in a significant way, the stumble at the end of the season has people rethinking the Hawks’ overall body of work. Saint Joe’s has only one top 100 RPI non-conference game (a victory at home against Boston University), and a non-conference strength of schedule in the mid-100s nationally. Then again, the Hawks have only one bad loss (at Temple). A good conference record but an overall mediocre body of work has the Hawks on the bubble, and a loss to a bad team in the A10 Tournament will have them sweating on Selection Sunday.
Team seeded 5 or lower that is most dangerous: Dayton Flyers
The fifth-seeded Flyers are hitting their stride at the right time, having posted a 9-1 record since the first of February. They’ve beaten Richmond, UMass, and George Washington at home during that span, which are three of the top teams in this conference. Dayton has also shown it can replicate its home success on the road, going into Saint Louis and grinding out one hell of a win. Dayton is doing an impressive job of forcing opponents to play out of their comfort zone. The one potential stumbling block for the Flyers? Saint Joseph’s, who have handed Dayton their two most recent losses and will be Dayton’s quarterfinal opponent should the Flyers win on Thursday afternoon.
Team that will be ready for next year: George Mason Patriots
It was a tough first year for George Mason in the Atlantic 10. With a conference record of 4-12, the Patriots will face Fordham in the A10 Tournament play-in game. But that record deserves a second look. Of those 12 losses, eight came by less than 10 points, and none came by more than 17 points. Only one game can truly be considered a blow-out. George Mason also took Saint Louis to overtime twice (!) before losing on both occasions. The Patriots play a blue-collar, hard-nose style of basketball that keeps them close in road games, a fact which is very important in the Atlantic 10 where away wins are especially difficult to come by. A solid cast of underclassmen are in place, and Paul Hewitt’s team will improve leaps and bounds next season.
Team that will win the 2014 Atlantic 10 Tournament: Virginia Commonwealth Rams
VCU should have no problem beating Richmond or Duquesne in the quarterfinals, then it’s a rematch with either UMass, George Washington, or URI in the semifinals. I don’t think UMass has what it takes to beat VCU twice in one season, GW struggles against good teams, and URI just isn’t there yet. The Rams’ biggest threat - Saint Louis - has been stumbling of late and is on the wrong side of the bracket. Plus, the Billikens may have some trouble in their quarterfinal against La Salle or Saint Bonaventure, leaving them ripe for an upset before the championship game. VCU has the clearest path to the title, and the Rams will not fail to capitalize.
So anyways, that's that. Hope you enjoyed everyone's take on the tourney. Just a reminder, tomorrow night's URI game vs. UMass will be broadcast by WRIU, 90.3 on your dials or online at www.wriu.org. And of course, you can take us with you wherever you go via the TuneIn radio app. Just search 'WRIU.'
Also, if you don't already, feel free to follow us all on Twitter for more info on the games:
Me: @levman90
Adam: @Astein25
Chris: @thechrisburnham
Tom: @tomporter94
Also look for @WRIUSportsRadio and @theumbr for more.
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