2011 NFL Preview, Part II

Here's Part I if you missed it.

This afternoon, I separated the league into two halves, basically. The teams with no shot at winning the Super Bowl, and the teams with at least a puncher's chance at the crown. Within each half, there were some clear divisions as well. I ranked the top 16 teams, but I really only feel like 6 teams have a shot at being "Super" this year: the Packers, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Saints, and Falcons. And within the bottom 16 teams, I mentioned that there's definitely reasons for optimism in locales such as Carolina and Cleveland, and to an even greater extent Detroit and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, it's the good 'ol Bungles in Cincinatta, and the buzzards continue to circle the wagons in Buffalo. How will it all pan out ultimately? A little something like this:

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC Wild-cards: Chargers, Ravens

NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
NFC Wild-cards: Falcons, Giants

AFC Wild-Card round: Ravens over Texans, Chiefs over Chargers
AFC Divisional round: Patriots over Ravens, Steelers over Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Steelers

NFC Wild-Card round: Eagles over Giants, Falcons over Rams
NFC Divisional round: Saints over Falcons, Eagles over Packers
NFC Championship Game: Saints over Eagles

Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots 20, Saints 17; MVP: Tom Brady

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Defensive Player of the Year: Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans
Comeback Player of the Year: Tiki Barber.....just kidding. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Eagles

Why the Patriots? Because I'm a Patriots fan? No doubt it makes it easier for me to pick them. But at the same time, why not? There's no doubt they're a better, more well-rounded team than last year's 14-2 squad who's season ended so painfully at the hands of the loathed Jets. So there's the whole "chip on the shoulder" factor. I alluded to that game as a doppelganger to the 2006 AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Colts a few months back. The Patriots lost to their bitter rivals on the biggest stage possible, and what happened next? They set the NFL roster move pages on fire, importing Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, among others. Although held back by the lockout this time, the Patriots reacted in similar fashion, bringing Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, and Brian Waters on board. Like in 2007, some moves will boom, others will bust. But you've got to at least applaud the effort of the Patriots to get back to the top of the NFL world, to the status of Super Bowl Champions where shockingly they haven't been since 2004.

I'm not saying they're gonna go set the world on fire like in 2007 and blow teams out 38-14 every week. And  I'm not even going to pretend there's a chance this team could redeem the '07 squad and finish 19-0. But when you look at the roster, top to bottom, the Patriots are loaded with depth everywhere you look. The Gronkowski/Hernandez combination is another year older, another year more lethal. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead have more help in the backfield coming in rookie Stevan Ridley. Nate Solder will help spell Matt Light at left tackle. Leigh Bodden returns to start alongside Devin McCourty at corner after missing all of '10. Can you think of a more formidable duo along the defensive line than Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth? Or at the very least, a bigger duo? Jerod Mayo led the league in tackles a year ago. And oh by the way, they have the reigning NFL MVP in Tom Brady.

So the Pats made some interesting moves in cutting pro bowler-Brandon Meriweather and Darius Butler (after just two seasons) last week. I have no problem with either move. Could Meriweather look like a combination between Ronnie Lott and Troy Polamalu at times? Absolutely. But those times were much fewer and farther between when than when he acted like a high school safety who just happened to hit really hard with his head. And Butler was in Belichick's dog house, and never coming out. Just ask Doug Gabriel how that worked out.

Bottom line, I'm expecting the Patriots to be just the latest Boston team to cue the duckboats some time in early February. And the Red Sox will most likely assume an all-too familiar role of "Boston team with the longest championship drought". Hey, four years is almost 21.5 times less than 86.

Here are some other predictions on what I expect around the NFL this season:

• Why the Saints in the NFC? Much like the Patriots, they've got to have a chip on their shoulders about the way last season ended. Losing to a sub-.500 team as 10.5 point favorites in the playoffs? That's how you defend your Super Bowl title? New Orleans is going to feel motivated they weren't just a one-hit wonder like "Dirty Water" by the Standells. Drew Brees is primed to cut back on his interceptions and approach 5,000 yards passing again. Mark Ingram looks like the real deal in the backfield so far, and it can't be understated what a good running game will do for a good passing game. The defense is still in good enough shape from the 2009 title run, and with Sean Payton pressing the buttons, you've got to like their chances.

• Sorry, Sanchize, the AFC is too deep this year. You and your coach can just schedule that fight you were talking about for halftime of your Christmas Eve date with the Giants, when your crosstown rival will officially eliminate you from post-season contention. 8-8 for the Jets this year. Eight and eight.

• I've been on record all off-season for saying that the Colts are not yet done. That with Peyton Manning in charge, they'll be a playoff team no matter what. I keep hearing the reports the past few weeks that Manning's gonna miss the season opener, blah blah blah, his streaks in jeopardy. Bullshit, I'm thinking. We're talking about Peyton Manning here. I feel the same way about Peyton Manning that Wes Mantooth feels about Ron Burgundy: "At the bottom of my gut, with every inch of me, I plain, straight hate you. But dammit, do I respect you!" This guy isn't gonna miss a start.....then this morning happens. Boom. I'm way more bitter than I should be because Peyton's a member of the Avengers this year. Shouldn't I be happy that the Colts, pretty much the Patriots version of Michael Myers, are finally starting to fade away? No Manning, no chance. And he'll be out more than just one week. 

• Jamaal Charles will rush for over 1,700 yards, and add on another 700 receiving, making him a no-brainer for the league's Offensive Player of the Year. He's the real deal, as are the Chiefs, who weren't just a flash in the pan last year. They've been building that ship right over there at Arrowhead for the past few years now. That defense featuring Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, and Tyson Jackson is just scary. Oh I just remembered, Scott Pioli's building that team. No wonder they're coming along so well.

• Raiders, really? They finally get a semblance of "momentum" (by finishing .500 for the first time since 2002), go ahead and fire their head coach, let not only their best player, but one of the best defensive players in the whole damn league walk (Asomugha), and even though I'm nitpicking here, their only reliable passing-game target walk (Zach Miller). It's easy to nitpick if it's the Raiders though. Just win, baby!

• Speaking of Asomugha, he'll slide into Philly prettay, prettay well alongside Asante Samuel. Just as long as it's not the 4th quarter of a potentially historic Super Bowl clinching defensive stand. No, I'm not bitter. Didn't they get Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade?

• The Eagles will win a Super Bowl at some point during this Michael Vick/Nnamdi Asomugha era. By the time I graduate college, let's say. And yes I know that gives them some extra time.

• Vince Young might be the best backup QB in the NFL. Think about it. And isn't he Vick Lite anyways? The pairing works perfectly. Young will get a chance to start in the NFL again some day. And while we're still on Philly, Ronnie Brown is a great backup to LeSean McCoy, and the addition of "the other" Steve Smith (Giants) adds depth to an already electrical crop of receivers. I'd say losing the NFC Championship would still be meeting expectations this season.

• Patriot milestones: Ochocinco will catch over 70 passes, go for about 1,100 yards, and 6 or 7 TD's. Green-Ellis won't quite reach 1,000 yards again thanks to the added depth in the backfield, but will again surpass double-digits in the touchdown department. Albert Haynesworth: 6 sacks on D.

• Ochocinco's old team, the Cincinnati Bengals, will finish with the worst record in the NFL, 2-14. I'm aware their first five opponents are Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.

• The Patriots will go 14-2 again, posting the top record in the league.

• We haven't seen the last of Randy Moss OR Terrell Owens. You forgot about the second one, didn't ya?

• Blaine Gabbert was probably going to start at some point this season for Jacksonville anyways. Thanks to Luke McCown being named starter, that time is much more likely to be in October than in December. Way to go, Del Rio. I was ready to put Jacksonville in my "top half" rankings and leave out Dallas instead. Thanks a lot.

• First coach fired: I mean, shouldn't it be Marvin Lewis? What exactly has he done to earn the right to keep coaching in the NFL? Since 2003, (Lewis's first on the job), the Bengals have gone 60-67-1, including 0-2 in the post-season. Sure, the Bengals have had only two terrible seasons under Lewis (2008 and 2010, 4-11-1 and 4-12 respectively) but c'mon, when is being average every year enough? Since it won't be Lewis, might as well go with Tony Sparano down in South Florida with the Dolphins. Although if the Chargers get off to a slow start, here's looking at you, Norv.

• Aaron Rodgers will lead the league in both passing yardage (4,812) and touchdown passes (37).

• Jamaal Charles will lead the league in rushing yards (1,768).

• Michael Turner will lead the league in rushing touchdowns (15).

• Greg Jennings will lead the league in receiving yardage (1,515).

• Antonio Gates will lead the league in receiving touchdowns (13).

• Cam Newton will throw more touchdown passes than interceptions, and the Panthers will be a sneaky-good 5-11. The NFC South is the toughest division in football, no questions asked. I wouldn't want to play the Panthers in Week 17 with something on the line.

Alright, I've rambled long enough. It's great to be back on the blogging scene, but more importantly, it's great to have NFL football less than 24 hours away. Enjoy!

2011 NFL Preview, Part I

There was never any doubt, was there? That the whole lockout thing wouldn't get resolved? Sure, it took a little longer than most expected, but at the end of the day we're still ready for Thursday night's kickoff between the Saints and Packers without skipping a beat. And quite frankly, that's all that really matters.

Of course, due to the lockout, there was essentially no off-season and mega-compressed training camps. A myriad of roster moves that happened so fast Usain Bolt's false start wouldn't even have been noticed. Madden '12 was released about 20 days later than usual, which especially sucked for people like myself stranded in Hingham long after the calendar turned to September.

Now that most of the dust has settled, it seems as though people finally have a grasp on which way the winds will blow this fall and winter. But questions linger. Can the Packers repeat? Just how good are the Eagles? For real, how bad is Peyton Manning's neck? Can Rex Ryan talk the talk while actually walking the walk? Are the Patriots primed for a 2007-like season (with a happier ending?) And many more.

I'll start by eliminating the following teams from any sort of discussion involving the playoffs: Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Carolina, San Francisco, and Arizona. The degrees to which these teams will suffer varies, as there's definitely reason for optimism in Cleveland and Carolina. But that's a conversation for 2012. I'd include Seattle on this list, but.....it's the NFC West, where Tarvaris Jackson is actually not the worst starting quarterback in the division. Think down by San Francisco Bay.

There's a few other teams clearly going nowhere fast, namely Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. But there's just enough talent in those locales which makes you ponder, "you know, I could totally see them sneaking into a wild-card spot at 9-7". The wonders of having Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson, respectively.

Detroit and Tampa Bay are perhaps two of the most intriguing teams in the league, but based off the strengths of their respective divisions, it's hard to see a playoff birth forthcoming. But crazier things have happened.

Including Seattle, I just eliminated half the league from the Super Bowl debate. How does the top half of the league stack up? It's everyone's favorite game: Power Rankings.

16. Dallas Cowboys 
Last season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)


For whatever reason, I can't write off dem Cowboys. When healthy, Tony Romo puts up numbers. Plain and simple. While it's true the Cowboys went 5-5 without Romo, compared to 1-5 in games started by him, would you buy Dallas as a playoff team with Jon Kitna under center? Didn't think so. The individual talent still in Dallas is too much to write them off completely. For now, anyways.

15. St. Lous Rams
Last season: 7-9 (missed playoffs)


Some nice additions on the defensive side of the ball in Ben Leber, Quintin Mikell, and rookie Robert Quinn, combined with the maturation of Sam Bradford, make the Rams the team to beat in the NFC's Best West. Hey, the Seahawks won a playoff game as division champs last year. It's not quite back to the Greatest Show on Turf days yet, but that 6-42 stretch from 2007-2009 is a thing of the past.

14. Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5 (won NFC North; lost in NFC Championship)


The microscope on Jay Cutler has never been larger due to the NFC title game fiasco with his knee, and the ongoing Lance Briggs saga is an unwelcome addition. Still can't figure out why they let go of tight end Greg Olsen, either. Plenty of playmakers remain of defense to keep Da Bears in da hunt, however.

13. New York Giants
Last season: 10-6 (missed playoffs)


It's easy to forget, the Packers Matt Dodged-a bullet with DeSean Jackson's punt return giving the Packers control of their own fate in the NFC wild-card race, leaving the Giants out in the cold. The G-Men will return to the post-season if Eli Manning cuts back on his interceptions (a league-leading 25 last year). If not, it'll be another long, cold January for Big Blue.

12. Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC South; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)


Turning back the clocks to 2008, let's remember when a 7th-round draft pick who had never started a collegiate football game by the name of Matt Cassel led the Patriots to an 11-5 record despite the loss of three-time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady. Not that I'm trying to diminish Brady's value here, but....these Colts are not even in the same stratosphere as those Patriots. Colts President Bill Polian has said within the past hour that Peyton Manning won't play Week 1. If Manning can get back on the field and play at a level he's accustomed to soon, don't count the Colts out just yet. If not....well, the Colts do still get to host the Super Bowl. There's just zero chance they'll be playing in it sans Peyton.

11. San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7 (missed playoffs)


Statistically speaking, boasted both the league's top offense and defense a season ago. Finished 5th in point differential behind the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and Steelers. That's right, the two no. 1 seeds in the playoffs and the Super Bowl participants. What the hell went wrong? Did special teams really cause the Chargers to miss the playoffs entirely? If the Chargers miss the playoffs again, Norv Turner might as well go replace Ron Burgundy and announce, "Go f*** yourself, San Diego".

10. Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6 (won AFC West; lost in AFC Wild-Card round)


A young team on the rise loaded with weapons at the skill positions on offense as well as all over the defense. Will duke it out with the Chargers well into December for the AFC West crown.

9. New York Jets
Last Season: 11-5 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Championship)


I've said it before, and I'll say it again: these Jets will never win a Super Bowl with Mark Sanchez under center. It's that simple. There's some other very intriguing pieces on offense, such as the Plaxico Burress experiment, and the defense can still go pound for pound with anyone. But unless Sanchez undergoes a serious transformation, the Jets might not even be the most relevant sports team named "Jets" anymore. Have you seen those new Winnipeg jerseys? Fresh as hell.

8. Houston Texans
Last Season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)


Call me crazy, but my reasoning for this being the season Houston finally breaks through is simple: the Colts have never been more vulnerable. There's elite playmakers on both sides of the ball, and it's going to be fun watching Mario Williams move into an outside linebacker role. The Texans also patched up the secondary (a little) by inking Jonathan Joseph. Even if Arian Foster falls back to Earth, the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection is right up there with the leagues strongest connections.


7. Baltimore Ravens
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC wild-card birth; lost in AFC Divisional round)


As long as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata are still on the defensive side of the ball, there's no reason the Ravens won't be a playoff team. Losing Derrick Mason and Todd Heap offensively is puzzling, but Lee Evans should slide in nicely next to Anquan Boldin. Can Joe Flacco join the NFL's elite?

6. Atlanta Falcons
Last Season: 13-3 (won NFC South; lost in NFC Divisional round)


This is the portion of the rankings where things get real serious. I'm not saying any team behind the Falcons can't win the Super Bowl, I'm just saying this is where the Super Six begins. Ray Edwards was a great addition on the defensive side of the ball, and early returns on Julio Jones look promising. It will be an epic battle for the NFC South with....

5. New Orleans Saints
Last Season: 11-5 (won NFC wild-card; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)


I'm really buying into the Saints this year. Drew Brees can't possibly throw 22 interceptions again, can he? Especially with a re-loaded running game to ease the some of the pressures, with Heisman winner Mark Ingram and former LaDanian Tomlinson-understudy Darren Sproles joining the mix. The defense is still a solid, well-rounded unit with no weaknesses. And for my money, I'd say Sean Payton is the best coach in the NFL without the initials "BB".

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Season: 12-4 (won AFC North; lost Super Bowl XLV)


Just forget for a second that Ben Roethlisberger rapes chicks. That Rashard Mendenhall (or as I call him, Rashard bin Ladenhall) is a terrorist sympathizer. That James Harrison said he wouldn't piss on Roger Goodell if he was on fire. That Hines Ward got a DUI over the off-season......Okay, it's very uncharacteristic for a Steelers team to have so many head cases. Yet I haven't mentioned some other guys who can play yet, such as Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Casey Hampton, James Farrior.....that's still the best defense in the NFL, bar none. Jets cast-off Jerricho Cotchery is a nice addition for Big Ben on offense, too.

3. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Season: 10-6 (won NFC East; lost in NFC Wild-Card round)


First things first: stop with the Miami Heat comparisons. Just stop. All they did was sign Nnamdi Asomugha. And while that is an unbelievable move that elevates the Eagles from pseudo contender to legit contender, it's not as though Philly imported 60% of their starting lineup like the LeBron's did (I swear, that will be the one and only mention of LeBron in today's preview. Promise). Having said that, if Mike Vick can stay healthy, this offense could produce a bigger explosion than Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined.

2. New England Patriots 
Last season: 14-2 (won AFC East; lost in AFC Divisional round)


People have been waiting for the demise of the Patriots for some time now. And hey, that's fair. It's easy to envy the best team of the past decade. Facts are facts, however, and the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since knocking off the Chargers in the 2007 AFC Championship Game. So that's not to say that the pressures on, but when you import Chad Ochocinco to an offense already featuring the league's reigning MVP in Tom Brady, and Albert Haynesworth comes aboard as the biggest risk/reward move of the Belichick era, it's hard not to get excited about a team that did go 14-2 last year, after all. Safe to say it's still personal between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick, too.

1. Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6 (Won Super Bowl XLV)


And the champs open up on top. Only seems right. And it gets even scarier when you consider they won the Lombardi Trophy a year ago without their top running back (Ryan Grant) or top tight end (Jermichael Finley), and withstood injuries to both Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the big game itself. Aaron Rodgers has laid his claim to the elite quarterback brotherhood, and has earned a spot on a proverbial Mount Rushmore with Brady, Manning, and Brees. Of course, all questions about the Packers will center around one topic: Can they repeat? Check back later for Part II for the 2011 NFL season preview.