Sunday, April 29, 2012

Patriots Draft Review, featuring Tom Fiascone

Scone's draft preview was such a success with the fans, we decided to bring him back for an encore. My own personal take, real quick? Belichick must've been listening to me on the radio last week. Tom Brady will be 35 when next season starts. And finally, BB didn't stockpile picks for a future season, but used them for the here and now. I think both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower could start this season for the Patriots, and have a pretty big impact at that. The Pats needed D, and D they did. So here's Scone's review.


Patriots’ fans finally got the draft they’ve wanted for years now. Ask Todd McShay or Mel Kiper Jr. what the Pats’ number one need was in each of the past few drafts they’d say a pass rusher. When now Pittsburgh Steeler outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley was on the board in 2007, Bill Belichick pulled the trigger on safety Brandon Meriweather. You can’t knock the 2008 Jerod Mayo pick, but as good as he is at ILB, he has only produced 5.5 sacks in a Pats’ uniform. In 2009 they passed up Clay Matthews Jr., instead opting to pick four times in the second round. They selected Jermaine Cunningham in 2010, who has become infamous for his ability to get remarkably close to the QB without actually sacking him. And finally in 2011 they opted for OL and secondary help with multiple DE’s on the board.

Now I’m not second-guessing Coach Belichick. The draft picks the Patriots received in the Clay Matthews deal eventually turned into Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman (plus Darius Butler and Brandon Tate, who didn’t amount to much). Belichick rarely misses on picks in the first round, with Meriweather and Laurence Maroney being the two notable exceptions in BB’s Patriots career, each of who were serviceable in their own rights. So its not like Belichick has been forgoing pass rushers for guys who don’t have an impact. But nevertheless, pass rushing has been a huge weakness for the Patriots since the Superbowl victories.

Well this year the Patriots really emphasized the “D” in Draft, selecting defensive players with every pick but their last. And further breaking recent trends, Bill Belichick actually traded up in round one, not once, but twice. BB traded up to take Syracuse DE Chandler Jones at #21 and Alabama LB Dont’a Hightower 25th overall. In round two he took Illinois S Tavon Wilson, and in round three, Arkansas DE Jake Bequette. They filled out the rest of their 2012 draft class with DB/Special Teamer Nate Ebner, CB Alfonzo Dennard, and WR Jeremy Ebert. The last time the Patriots traded up in round one was in 2003 for DE Ty Warren who led an extremely productive career, and the last time they took two first rounders was in 2004, taking Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson.

The 2012 first round picks, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower, should help the much-maligned Pat’s D. Jones, at 6-6, 265, could project as an OLB in the Pats’ 3-4 or a DE in the 4-3. He is a freakishly good athlete in the mold of Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul. Jones has extremely long arms to fight off blockers and hold the edge, and he has an improving pass-rush game. Jones is also very young, and with defensive mastermind Bill Belichick as coach, his potential is through the roof. Mike Mayock, one of my personal favorite scouts/analysts out there (Sorry Kiper) actually had Jones ranked as his ninth overall prospect, and said that Jones could be the top D prospect from this class three years from now. Hightower comes from Nick Saban’s vaunted national champion Alabama defense. Hightower was the signal caller for the D, and a two-time captain. Furthermore, Alabama played a 3-4 D similar to the Patriots, where Hightower played ILB, OLB, and DE, showing versatility that BB always looks for. Hightower will probably have more of an immediate impact for the Pats, with Jones having a higher potential.

2nd Round Pick Tavon Wilson played all over the field at Illinois, though he appears to be a solid compliment to Patrick Chung as a free safety. Wilson can also play outside on the corner and in the slot. Wilson was above all, another Belichick pick. A combine snub, most analysts were scratching their heads at the pick. On film, Wilson appears to be rangy and have average ball skills. Wilson spent the 2011 season as Illinois’ defensive captain. Wilson is a high character guy, overcoming loads of adversity in his personal life (Google it for some intense stories). He started a lot of football games for the Fightin Illini, and has ample experience on special teams. The pick is reminiscent of 2009 2nd rounder Sebastian Vollmer, another combine snub who ended up a very solid player for the Pats. There may have been more heralded safeties on the board, but as I’ve learned when it comes to the draft: In Bill We Trust.

The Patriots traded their second 2nd rounder (you didn’t think they weren’t going to trade back at some point, did you?) for a 3rd and a 5th. In the 3rd, they selected another two-time team captain, Jake Bequette (pronounced Beckett). Bequette was a solid DE for Arkansas, and stands at 6-5, 275. He, like Jones, projects as either a DE or a LB, depending on the defensive alignment. Bequette had an explosive combine workout, running among the best 3-cone drill and 20 yard shuttles for DE’s, and a 34” vertical. Bequette is a high motor player, which makes up for his only above average athleticism. I really like the film I’ve seen on Bequette, and he could be an outstanding role player, with the potential to be better than that.

Nate Ebner, taken in the 6th after another trade, looks to be a special teams player, though an impact one at that. He walked on to THE Ohio State football team, and is a very prolific rugby player. Don’t hate the pick at all, special teams are one-third of the game as they say, and Ebner could be a great role player.

Alfonzo Dennard, CB from Nebraska, had a great junior year two years ago followed by a below average senior season. He’s had some off the field issues, punching a police officer and ultimately having to be restrained by four cops. Personally I don’t see that as a huge flag as I’m actually impressed that it took four officers to hold back his 5’10”, 200-pound frame. Dennard was rated as a possible second rounder before his arrest on April 21. Dennard had a solid vertical at the combine, making up for his lack of height, but he has short arms, and can get tangled up in man-to-man coverage. Dennard could prove to be a steal, however, if he can clean up his act.

The Patriots’ last pick was Northwestern WR Jeremy Ebert, who amassed 173 receptions for 2,400 yards and 21 TD’s in his four-year career, most of his production coming in the last two years when he was a starter. He could project, after some seasoning, as a good slot receiver. Ebert is most likely a developmental prospect, but an important one at that as current slot recievers Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, and Anthony Gonzalez’s contracts all expire after this season (barring and extension for the franchise-tagged Welker).

Overall, three words really sum up these draft picks for me: Versatility, Character, and Upside. The Pats only took seven players, one of their smaller draft classes in recent memory, but the impact on the defense could be huge. For those Pats fans out there asking for more help for the aging Tom Brady, think about it this way: an improved defense will gave the already dangerous Patriot offense more time on the field. One of the keys to beating the Pats in 2011 was sustaining long drives on offense against the Pats’ weak defense. Jones, Hightower, and Bequette, who are all above average pass rushers, will undoubtedly help on those third and longs that opponents seemingly converted with ease. The rest of the class looks like they could contribute as well, and I think the Patriots had a great overall draft. They broke from their trend and did not pick up any extra picks for next year, but with multiple important contracts expiring soon, they should have enough cap space to resign guys like Hernandez, Gronkowski, Chung, Vollmer, and Welker.

Point After Attempts:

-Most analysts thought Baltimore would trade up and draft Hightower as an eventual Ray Lewis replacement. That’s high praise for Hightower, as the Ravens rarely miss on their first round picks, not to mention the idea that he could’ve taken Lewis’s spot someday.

-As always, Bill Belichick conducted a hilarious post-draft press conference. You gotta wonder if he chuckles to himself when he steps off the podium after artfully dodging every single one of the reporter’s questions. His linguistic ability is reminiscent of one Jackie Chiles. When BB finally retires from the game he should seriously consider a career as a defense attorney for white-collar criminals.

-My first round bust pick: Morris Claiborne, CB, 6th overall to America’s Team. Dallas traded up to get Claiborne who scored a 4 (out of 50) on his Wonderlic test (similar to an IQ test). CB is one of the positions where a high Wonderlic may not be that important, but what may be more troubling is that Claiborne now tries to assert he blew off the Wonderlic. I’m not sure what’s worse, his awful score, or the fact that he blew off part of what is essentially a job interview.

-Luke Kuechly will thrive in Carolina under defensive mastermind Coach Ron Rivera. I know I speak for my fellow Eagles when I say Kuechly will be sorely missed in Chestnut Hill this fall; he was really the bright spot of a bleak program during his amazing three-year career.

-Look for the Patriots to sign a handful of undrafted free agents (UDFAs) and expect at least one of them to stick on the roster. Recent players falling under this category include: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dane Fletcher, Kyle Love, Stephen Neal, Sergio Brown and Brian Hoyer.

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