Maybe a Red Sox team that's being hailed as the most improved across baseball still after winning 89 games last season? Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez now calling Fenway their home park? And if you aren't a Red Sox fan, Spring Training signals a beacon of hope for just about every other team (except the Pirates, Indians, and Royals). But hey, it's a 162 game marathon, not a sprint. All kinds of crazy stuff can happen.
And we haven't even gotten to the fake games that don't count yet, where the single-A players you've never heard of are getting you excited by posting a 23-12 record. For what it's worth, that was the San Francisco Giants Cactus League record from a year ago, the most wins in the pre-season. And they went on to win the World Series. Then again Cleveland (19-9, .732) posted the second-highest winning percentage overall, so you never know with these things.
The rankings I'm about to unveil are not necessarily a projected order of finish in baseball this year, just an ordering of "least hopeful" to "most hopeful". And these are subject to change after the Exhibition season comes to a close, before the first pitch of the regular season is thrown. So let's do this already.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Season: 57-105
Remember that Brett Favre feature I ran in December? Here's something else I could have added to the list: 1992 was the last time the Pirates finished with a winning record. And while Favre's streak might be over, don't expect this one to end in 2011.
29. Cleveland Indians
Last Season: 69-93
At least LeBron and the Cavs.....ah the Browns have the no. 6 pick in the draft.....nevermind.
28. Seattle Mariners
Last Season: 61-101
Seattle does possess the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Felix Hernandez. The only question is for how much longer.
27. Kansas City Royals
Last Season: 67-95
It's not all bad news in Kansas City. The Royals have the top-ranked farm system in all of baseball. So for the first time in a long time, there's light at the end of the tunnel. Just don't expect any big jump this season.
26. Houston Astros
Last Season: 76-86
The days of the Killer B's are but a distant memory. Roy Oswalt is gone. The cupboard is bare in Houston, and it could be awhile before these guys are relevant again.
25. New York Mets
Last Season: 79-83
It's not all Bernie Madoff's fault. He's not the one who signed Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, or the ghost of Johan Santana. The Mets still have the pieces to have an interesting lineup, which is good because they'll need all the runs they can get. Don't expect many games of the 2-1, 1-0 variety this year in Queens.
24. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Season: 65-97
So how exactly would trading Justin Upton make these guys better? And that rotation isn't exactly hearkening back memories of the Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson days.
23. Washington Nationals
Last Season: 69-93
So you go and throw $126 million at Jayson Werth, and then let Adam Dunn walk and trade Josh Willingham? Isn't that just an expensive lateral move? It'll be a summer full of lobbying for Bryce Harper on Capitol Hill.
22. Toronto Blue Jays
Last Season: 85-77
They'll still score plenty of runs in Canada, but as great as it was to rid themselves of Vernon Wells' contract, he was an integral part of this lineup. Then again it's not like this group was going anywhere special, so starting from scratch just might be the best option. How they spend the money they saved, however, will determine how smooth the operation goes down.
21. Baltimore Orioles
Last Season: 66-96
This team kind of has an '06 Tigers feel to it. So bad for so long, but finally there seems to be just enough pieces in place to at least make you curious. Then there's the Jim Leyland-Buck Showalter parallels. But these Orioles face one huge challenge those Tigers didn't: they play in the AL East.
20. Florida Marlins
Last Season: 80-82
When will it end? Trading an established star (Dan Uggla) for a career backup (Omar Infante, who did make the all-star team last year in some sort of travesty) is just the latest salary purge in South Florida. Aren't they moving into a new ballpark soon?
19. Chicago Cubs
Last Season: 75-87
Team undoubtedly improved by importing some Rays: Matt Garza and a low-risk, high-reward flyer on Carlos Pena. And the NL Central is just wide-open enough to give these guys a shot. But expectations can't get too high on the North Side or else this season will just end like every one of the past 102: without a World Championship.
18. Detroit Tigers
Last Season: 81-81
The Tigers were in contention last season until an August swoon dropped them to irrelevancy. And if Miguel Cabrera gets suspended for his latest problems with alcohol, that just could be the way the Tigers stay.
17. San Diego Padres
Last Season: 90-72
The Pads were the darlings of baseball a year ago, winning 90 games amidst zero expectations and falling just short of the post-season. But they finished 22nd in runs scored last year, and that was with Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, it's back to Earth for the classy folks of San Diego.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Season: 80-82
Mets of the West Coast? There is simply too much talent on this roster for them to be this far down, but like the Muts, ownership and financial issues have them stuck in no-mans land. Fortunately for them, they play in the NL West. Which isn't quite the NFC West. But it warrants mentioning.
15. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Last Season: 80-82
2010 was the first time Mike Scioscia's club had finished with a losing record since 2003. One of the most consistent clubs in baseball over the past decade, have they also gotten too complacent? Texas lapped them last year, and Oakland finished a game up on them.
14. Colorado Rockies
Last Season: 83-79
One key difference between the Rocks and the previous two NL West teams in these rankings? A bona fide ace, Ubaldo Jimenez, who took the baseball world by storm in last season's first half (15-1, 2.20 ERA) before "tailing off" to finish at 19-8 and a 2.88 mark. With Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup, Colorado also boasts two MVP candidates. So keep an eye on Coors Field. It wouldn't shock me to see this team wind up on top of the NL West.
13. Tampa Bay Rays
Last Season: 96-66; Lost in ALDS
Unlike their Florida counterparts, the Rays will stay competitive in the aftermath of a firesale. Make no mistake, they won't come even close to winning 96 games again, but the "Devil" Rays aren't about to jump back on the scene either. Jeremy Hellickson is the real deal in that rotation to go along with David Price, and Evan Longoria is still wreaking havoc in that lineup. Not to mention a few other idiots.
12. Texas Rangers
Last Season: 90-72; Lost in World Series
No longer the answer to "only MLB team to never win a post-season series", the Rangers hope to maintain these winning ways people aren't so accustomed to in Arlington. But much like in the NFL, the championship loser always seems to have a tough time making it back to the promised land. Realize this though: Texas was a popular pick to win the West in March last season, when Cliff Lee was still in Seattle.
11. St. Louis Cardinals
Last Season: 86-76
LeBron 2.0? Phat Albert doesn't seem the type to drag this out and make it a big issue, but there's no question that until he signs his name on a new contract, there'll be wide-spread panic under the Arch. Which may or may not last until next off-season.
10. Milwaukee Brewers
Last Season: 77-85
Might seem a little high for the Brew Crew, but any rotation which already had Yovani Gallardo and then added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, particularly in the National League, is poised to make some noise. Not to mention the sense of urgency is high in Milwaukee, with the Pujols Lite situation they find themselves in with Prince Fielder.
9. Oakland A's
Last Season: 81-81
It's generally in the third year where young pitchers make The Leap, and Oakland has plenty of candidates primed for a breakout 2011 on that staff. Adding Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham to the lineup just might be enough to put the A's over the top in the AL West.
8. Chicago White Sox
Last Season: 88-74
Picking up Adam Dunn was a very smart move to bolster an already stout offense (not to mention bringing back Paul Konerko), and if Jake Peavy can overcome his latest shoulder troubles, that rotation has the potential to be scary good.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Last Season: 91-71; lost in NLDS
Really no true weaknesses on a roster which includes reigning MVP Joey Votto, pride of Canada. And no one's quite yet sure what Aroldis Chapman's role will be, other than throwing 105 MPH heat. But in a vastly improved NL Central, Reds need to strive to improve on last year's record.
6. Atlanta Braves
Last Season: 91-71; lost in NLDS
Freddie Freeman could be this year's Jason Heyward, which is perfect because the Braves already have Jason Heyward. Like the Reds, no true weaknesses on the roster. Chipper Jones's comeback will be an interesting story to watch, as he plays for just his second manager in his illustrious ATL career.
5. Minnesota Twins
Last Season: 94-68; lost in ALDS (to the Yankees for the 10th year in a row)
The Twins World Series hopes hinge on the M & M boys, Mauer and Morneau. Joe Mauer needs to rediscover the power that made him the AL MVP in 2009, and Justin Morneau needs to continue the arduous road of recovery from his concussion last year. It's easy to forget now, but Morneau was leading the charge for his second MVP award before he went down last year with a .345-18-56 line in just 81 games, to go along with a 1.055 OPS.
4. New York Yankees
Last Season: 95-67; lost in ALCS
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves: even though their starting rotation is thinner than Lindsay Lohan, there's still a murderer's row-caliber lineup in the Bronx. Robinson Cano was a true MVP candidate last season (.319-29-109; .914 OPS). And they've still got guys named Rodriguez and Teixeira kicking around the corners.
3. San Francisco Giants
Last Season: 92-70; won World Series
It's hard to argue with having the defending champs up so high, even though their roster may not have been so glamorous to begin with. But bringing back an entire World Series-winning roster in tact, while upgrading at SS (Juan Uribe gives way to Miguel Tejada), means that if the Giants tank this year, they weren't that good to being with. But it was worth the wait by the bay.
2. Boston Red Sox
Last Season: 89-73
Again, without Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, this team managed to win 89 games. Without Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia for most of the second half. If one of the Josh Beckett/John Lackey tag-team can turn it around, here's your AL favorite.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Last Season: 97-65; lost in NLCS
Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Best pitcher alive in Roy Halladay? Check. Former World Series MVP in Cole Hamels? Check. Best post-season pitcher of the past 3 or 4 years in Cliff Lee? Check. Oh and Roy Oswalt. Here's your NL favorite, and by an even wider margin than the Red Sox in the American League.
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