Both teams enter today's match-up in Dallas with no shortage of backstories, subplots, and other intriguing items that makes Super Bowl XLV the chance to be one of the very best we've ever seen. There's a lot at stake for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh, two very evenly matched teams. From the front offices on down to the field, legacies can be firmly entrenched in the annals of the NFL today. How do the teams stack up?
What's at stake?
For Pittsburgh, the chance to rival the Patriots as the second 21st century dynasty by winning their third Super Bowl in six seasons. Ben Roethlisberger has a chance to tie Tom Brady with his third ring, and would also move just one behind Terry Bradshaw for the most in Steelers history. Head coach Mike Tomlin can win his second championship, and in the process become the youngest coach ever with two titles. James Harrison, James Farrior, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Casey Hampton have a chance to be remembered as the corps of a Dynastic defense, while Polamalu and Harrison in particular can further cement their cases as Hall of Famers one day. Hines Ward and Heath Miller, along with Ben Roethlisberger, are the offensive starters who have played in the previous two Super Bowl teams of the decade. They can cement themselves as legendary offensive stalwarts on a Dynasty. Lastly, Roethlisberger can continue the rehabilitation of his shattered image. If he wins the third ring, it'll give him a 3-2 lead in Rings vs. Sexual Assault Accusations.
For Green Bay, they can become the first 6-seed from the NFC to win the Super Bowl since the playoffs expanded in 1990. The front office, led by GM Ted Thompson, can achieve full vindication for the way the Brett Favre situation went down in 2008. Aaron Rodgers makes The Leap from "very solid quarterback" to "elite quarterback", and gets mentioned in the same breath as Brady, Manning, Brees, etc. heading into next season. Despite losing Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley on offense early in the season, Rodgers was still able to preside over a top 10 offense in terms of both passing and scoring. He has the highest passer rating so far in the postseason (109.2) after finishing with the third highest in the regular season (101.2, behind only Brady and Rivers).
The Steelers have a chance to complete a dynasty. The Packers may have a budding one. Obviously, you have to go with what's already been established.
Advantage: Steelers
Quarterback
Roethlisberger, with two championship rings under his belt, trails only Tom Brady among active quarterbacks. For whatever reason though, Roethlisberger always seems to slip between the cracks whenever an elite QB conversation is started. Is he as pure a passer as any of the other guys? Probably not. But you know what? Since coming into the NFL in 2004, statistically speaking, he can rank right up there with anyone. Let's look at his passer ratings for example. Throwing out two down years in 2006 and 2008, he has ranked 5th, 3rd, (21st), 2nd, (24th), 5th, and 5th. This season, he threw a career low 5 interceptions (albeit in just 12 games, that's still a pace for only 7 over a full 16). And what transcends the numbers is his ability to make something out of nothing, the ability to consistently make plays outside of the pocket, scrambling, etc. No one in the league, not even Mike Vick, does a better job of that than Roethlisberger.
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| Hard as it is to fathom, Rodgers could match Favre in Super Bowl victories with a win tonight. And what would the 2010 NFL season be without Brett Favre somehow being involved in the Super Bowl? |
Advantage: Packers
Running Game
Neither team has an elite running game per se, as both finished 2010 ranking in the bottom half of yards per carry. Based on name recognition alone, you'd be inclined to take Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers over anyone Green Bay can throw out at you, although Mendenhall's production slipped to under 4 yards per carry this season. The Packers come at you with a ragtag team led by rookie 6th round pick James Starks, who turned heads with his 123 yard performance against the Eagles in the wild-card round. Aside from Starks, the Pack can throw out Brandon Jackson and fan favorite John Kuhn on any kind of set. But I'd be shocked if either of them got more carries than Starks tonight. So while Starks may be the hot hand right now, Mendenhall has still proven to be more reliable over the course of a full season.
Advantage: Steelers
Receivers
Each team has plenty of targets to the outside, both speed receivers and the possession types. For the Steelers, Hines Ward is the marquee name. Ward, the MVP of Super Bowl XL, is nearing 1,000 career receptions. But this season, his 59 catches were his fewest since 2000, and his 755 receiving yards were his fewest in a full season since that same year. Mike "60 Minutes" Wallace is emerging as a true star in the league. Despite catching just one more ball than Ward this season, he finished with 502 more yards receiving than his counterpart. A deep threat in the truest of forms, he averaged 20.1 yards per catch on the year.
The Packers have a very similar tandem in their top 2 targets, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Driver, the savvy vet who dates back to the middle of the Favre Administration, mirrors Ward of the Steelers. While one of the more underrated receivers of the 2000's, Driver's production undoubtedly fell off a bit this season, with his reception and receiving yards totaling their lowest points since 2003. Unlike Wallace, however, the Packers already have a bona fide star in Jennings. He finished in the top 5 in the NFL this season in receiving yards, touchdown receptions, and catches of more than 20 yards. Wallace may be able to match him with the whole deep threat thing, but there may not be a more complete receiver in the NFL right now than Greg Jennings.
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| By the way, the Patriots chose to draft Chad Jackson over Jennings in 2006, the same year Maroney went over Jones-Drew, Addai, and DeAngelo Williams. But I digress. |
Advantage: Packers
Defense
No shortage of playmakers for either team on this side of the ball. The core of the Steelers unit has been together for several years now, and Polamalu and Harrison undoubtedly rank at among the best at their respective positions. Clay Matthews simply isn't a human being for the Packers. He can turn up at any point on the field and make a play, but he's most known for his relentless pass rushing. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are about as good a tandem of cornerbacks as you're going to find in today's NFL, so the Packers definitely seem to have the advantage locking down the Steelers receivers.
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| He'll be all over the place again today. On his feet, upside down, or even sideways, as shown here. |
So basically, what it comes down to, is who will make a big play when it matters most? The game could well be decided on a Polamalu pick or a Matthews sack. Picking which defense is better is a great debate that could rage on for hours on end. It's like a Hitler vs. Stalin, Kim Kardashian vs. J-Lo, Charlie Sheen vs. John Belushi, you name it. Do I have to pick one unit?
Advantage: Dead even
Coaching
Mike McCarthy is a skinnier version of Andy Reid. And he's by no means skinny. Mike Tomlin currently ranks as a top-tier coach in the NFL. With a win tonight, wouldn't he have to be mentioned in the same breath as "Belichick" or "Payton"? This one's as easy as the defense was difficult.
Advantage: Steelers
Special Teams
Neither team boasts an elite return man per se, on kickoffs or punts, so there's no need to be on the lookout for the Devin Hester effect.
The Adam Vinatieri isn't exactly in play here either, with Shaun Suisham kicking for Pitt and Mason Crosby handling the duties for Green Bay. Suisham is known for missing a 33-yard field goal while with the Redskins in 2009 that would have ended the New Orleans Saints's perfect season. While he did finish the regular season 14-15 in field goal attempts, he doesn't exactly have a history as a clutch performer. Crosby, meanwhile, can boot the ball a mile, but accuracy has always been a question here. He's got the top rated leg in Madden after Sebastian Janikowski though. That has to count for something, right?
Advantage: Packers
So by my calculations, the Packers have an advantage in three categories, as do the Steelers, and one category was a wash. So what do when all of your highly scientific analysis results in a tie? You follow your gut. And my gut is telling me that the Green Bay Packers (-2 1/2) will win, 37-34. Yes, I know that seems highly out of character for the top two scoring defenses in the game this year. But I'm counting on at least one defensive touchdown per side, possibly even more. Take the over on 46, and give me Charles Woodson as the game's MVP.
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| The only defensive player to win the Heisman could soon have another trophy on his mantle. |
Centsports is getting to your head with these predictions!!!
ReplyDeleteGood post though Jake, its Ben.